GA/NC - CBS/YouGov: Perdue +2 in GA, Cunningham +9 in NC

[The Other Castro]

Perdue - 45%
Ossoff - 43%
Someone else - 3%

Cunningham - 48%
Tillis - 39%
Someone else - 3%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oa8SqHJAq6hBII_8LjgY0PjPwAgBWzpO/view
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jDu_IMRdUTbdmA-VfpP-neMT3-lYw969/view

[Skye]

...did they really not poll GA-Sen special? Come on.

[Roll Roons]

Why is Tillis consistently running behind Trump?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Why is Tillis consistently running behind Trump?

Because whereas Trump is not well-liked, Tillis is not well-liked while also being bland and boring in a state that is willing to vote for Democrats when the atmosphere is right. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why is Tillis consistently running behind Trump?

Because he is an awful candidate who got lucky in 2014.

[wbrocks67]

Wow. Color me shocked that Cunningham is not only near 50% but up 9% even when Biden is only up 4. Some of these polls looked like outliers at first but nearly ever NC-Sen poll is telling the same story now.

Also, actually a good result for Ossoff. He's down only 2 and a large swath of 18-29 year olds in the poll are undecided (less so among older voters), so if he gets them in his column, he could easily win this thing (by a small margin of course, but win nonetheless)

[wbrocks67]

Why is Tillis consistently running behind Trump?

Because he is an awful candidate who got lucky in 2014.

Tillis and Ernst are in the same boat tbh

[MT Treasurer]

Never thought I’d be saying this, but Tillis is nearing McSally levels of doomed. Republicans would have to sweep every other competitive Senate race if they lose CO/AZ/NC/MI but flip AL. Highly unlikely, even if not outright impossible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Never thought I’d be saying this, but Tillis is nearing McSally levels of doomed. Republicans would have to sweep every other competitive Senate race if they lose CO/AZ/NC/MI but flip AL. Highly unlikely, even if not outright impossible.

Keep avoiding ME and IA, Collins is DOA

[WD]

Also Perdue is getting the exact share of the vote as Trump, given that lack of a major 3rd party vote, if Biden wins the state, Ossoff likely does as well.

[OneJ]

While I expect NC to end up tighter than this, Tillis' chances are undoubtedly shrinking. His situation is looking more like McSally's where it'll probably take a miracle for him to somehow hang on.

As for GA, while Ossoff is down this poll suggests he's got room to grow while Perdue has the same vote share % as Trump.

[LimoLiberal]

Unambiguously good for Cunningham, but the undecideds do lean R in the presidential.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Tillis is this far gone, the Senate is in Dem hands, Dole lost and the Senate was in Dem hands in 2008.

[Person Man]

Never thought I’d be saying this, but Tillis is nearing McSally levels of doomed. Republicans would have to sweep every other competitive Senate race if they lose CO/AZ/NC/MI but flip AL. Highly unlikely, even if not outright impossible.

I don't think there is much of a window for a D-R split between the Senate and Presidency anymore though I can imagine a D senate and R president now as easily as a R senate and D presidency.

The way we get a R senate and D president is that Hickenlooper's relationship with the media continues to deterorate (Gardner got in to the Senate on because he was the darling of the local media) and Collins somehow convinces voters that she's still pro-choice. Or of course Biden just wins the Kerry States + NM+NV+CO.

We can easily have Trump by a narrow margin and have a Democratic senate. Say Trump wins by holding the sunbelt but only loses Michigan but as early as now, he started gaining in the polls. Hopefully if this week is another mediocre polling week for Democrats, they will start seeing Donald Trump as like the 1998-2003 Bucaneers. That is, a wild card team that lacks conventional strength and starts thier games poorly. Many games they end up winning, they are down at the end of the first half by 0-10 or something. They do have enough unique gifts to build a momentum to the point where they are getting into the playoffs by a lot of 17-14 type games. If the Democrats similantenously see enough momentum from the noise and just enough continued conventional weakness, they can start running as a "check" on Trump by 9/11. They could say that though people might not be excited by Biden, there still needs to be a more effective check on Trump. This way, people like Peters, Cunnigham, Kelly, and especially Bollock and potentially Bollier and Ossof can squeak by on a night by running 3 or 4 points ahead of Biden. Salazar ran 10 points ahead of Kerry, for example.  

 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tillis is not losing by 9. I live here, polls are dem friendly. But even if you shave a few points off, he is still screwed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tillis thought he could use Ukraine Hunter with Johnson, but Covid 19 has knocked scandal off the front pages and unemployment benefits expiring has been on the front pages

[VAR]

The gap between these two races was actually... 0.00%.