Rate KY-GOV 2023

[KYRockefeller]

I'd say it's a lean D seat at the moment just because of Beshear's COVID response.  However, some of those measures remain unpopular, especially with their impact on business even if they've saved lives along the way.  His opponent will not be Cameron, who I think runs again for attorney general so he can run for Mitch's Senate seat in 2026, but will probably be Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles.  Quarles has built up strong links to the KY farm industry, which could generate big margins in rural areas.

Beshear only beat Bevin by 5,000 votes and that was largely on the back of people seeing Bevin as anti-education.  Counties that have traditionally leaned Republican in the Northern part of the state (which are typically the red suburbs of Cincinnati) and Warren County, home of Western Kentucky University, abandoned him.  Quarles doesn't have that baggage.  Also, Beshear has been unable to get his promised $2,000 pay raise for teachers through the legislature so that could dampen support.

Beshear's father did well under Obama in 2011 but he had the fortune of running against Senate President David Williams, who was INCREDIBLY unpopular with independents and a lot of members of the state Republican Party.  There wasn't really a good GOP opponent for Beshear anyway after all the congressional Republicans opted out of the race.

The power of incumbency means something but with the headwinds of a Biden presidency and the lack of a heat magnet like Bevin as an opponent, I think Beshear could struggle and lose.  I just think a lot of outsiders underestimate how much ground the Dems have lost in this state over the last twenty years.  They've won the governorship quite a bit, but in 2019 they lost every other statewide office (which is largely a vote of a generic R vs. a generic D) and the GOP has a super majority in the legislature.  Those are tough headwinds for any Democrat to overcome.

[KYRockefeller]

Lean Dem.  Republicans would be better off waiting until 2027.  They would have a more impressive bench of candidates to choose from by then.  Remember, they just took all of the lower-level statewide offices last year, so they would be better-served letting their officeholders mature and gain experience by winning an additional term so they don't end up with another Ernie Fletcher or Matt Bevin.   

This is largely true but Ag Commissioner Ryan Quarles is in his second term, as is state auditor Mike Harmon and state treasurer Allison Ball.  The state GOP already has a decent bench to choose from.  I thought Allison Grimes and Beshear would trade off the governorship for the Dems, but questions about Grimes' tenure as Secretary of State have hurt her future prospects.