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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Rate KY-GOV 2023
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Poll
Question: Rate KY-GOV 2023
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Tilt D
 
#5
Tossup
 
#6
Tilt R
 
#7
Lean R
 
#8
Likely R
 
#9
Safe R
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 34

Author Topic: Rate KY-GOV 2023  (Read 404 times)
Atlanta 1997 World Champs
bronz4141
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« on: July 31, 2020, 09:48:22 pm »

I rate it as Lean D.

Gov. Beshear can beat Daniel Cameron especially with the Breonna Taylor case.

However, McConnell will resign and retire in 2023-24 if Cameron wins and Republicans are in a Senate minority, he would not want to wait until 2025 for a Senate Republican majority

Quote
Add it all up and you get this: If McConnell and Republicans lose the Senate majority this November, they might not have a realistic chance to win it back until 2025. Which is a long time for McConnell to wait to regain his position of power.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/politics/mitch-mcconnell-senate-2020-senate-2022/index.html
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2020, 09:49:44 pm »

Likely D.

Reelected just in time to be a 2024 running mate?
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Atlanta 1997 World Champs
bronz4141
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2020, 09:54:45 pm »

Likely D.

Reelected just in time to be a 2024 running mate?

A good running mate for Biden's VP....he would help in the South and Midwest.....Bel Edwards is too pro-life.
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2020, 09:55:22 pm »

Likely R. Beshear is pretty much DOA under a Biden presidency.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2020, 09:58:59 pm »
« Edited: July 31, 2020, 10:02:46 pm by EastOfEden »

Likely R. Beshear is pretty much DOA under a Biden presidency.

His 81% approval rating during the pandemic will count for something. People have a way of remembering 150,000 people dying.

It's important to remember that we are living in extremely historic times. We will be defined by this, the same way the Great Depression and World Wars defined earlier generations.

In 2023, Kentuckians will have forgotten Bevin's general awfulness, but they will not have forgotten the pandemic.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2020, 10:07:04 pm »

Tossup. I think this will play out a lot like LA-GOV 2019 but under a far, far more unfavorable national environment for Democrats, so Beshear's luck might finally run out. I really doubt his handling of the pandemic will matter a lot in November 2023.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2020, 10:19:20 pm »
« Edited: July 31, 2020, 10:29:36 pm by Alben Barkley »

Likely D.

Reelected just in time to be a 2024 running mate?

A good running mate for Biden's VP....he would help in the South and Midwest.....Bel Edwards is too pro-life.

An eventual President Beshear is my dream, and this would be the best route to making that happen, so god I hope it happens.

As for the question at hand... Depends on a lot of variables. I think Beshear is personally popular enough to have a decent chance at surviving, and I think this pandemic WILL be remembered (and Beshearís role in it largely favorably). Plus Iím not even sure who the KY GOP will nominate. If it ends up being a Bevin-esque far right loon like Savannah Maddox, Beshear has a real shot. (I could see Bevin and his legacy being the equivalent of Sam Brownback.)

Overall I rate it toss-up/tilt D for now, with plenty of room to change in either direction depending on how things go from here and how the political climate changes. Bear in mind though that Steve Beshear didnít seem to suffer at all from Obamaís unpopularity in 2011. He just won bigger than before. Kentucky has historically been very favorable to Democratic incumbents, and not favorable at all to Republican incumbents. Regardless of the national climate.
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2020, 10:38:24 pm »

Beshearís approval rating in 2023 (especially in the final months leading up to Election Day) will factor into his re-election prospects. If his approval rating is underwater, heís probably toast. If itís significantly above water, he should be favored to win re-election. (Remember, his predecessorís loss is mostly attributable to his approval rating being well underwater near the end of his tenure.)
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Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019
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« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2020, 12:15:15 am »

Tossup, given it's so far away and gubernatorial races tend to be less polarized. Given Beshear barely beat an anti-vaxx lunatic who hates teachers, I don't think his prospects are particularly bright, but incumbency in Governor's race can prove to be an advantage, it's too far away to predict this race as anything other than tossup
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2020, 12:17:02 am »

Way too early to say for sure, so Toss-Up by default. If Beshear remains popular, he definitely has a chance (even in a Biden midterm), but a lot will depend on his opponent as well.
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scjohnson
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2020, 01:19:08 pm »

Too early. Largely depends on his challenger.
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Lucas Whitefur
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« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2020, 02:18:51 pm »

Likely R. Unless Matt Bevin goes for a rematch, he's done.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2020, 09:57:25 am »

Too early to tell, so anything other than Tossup/Tilt D (just due to strict incumbency advantage) is premature. 
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Virginia Yellow Dog
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« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2020, 04:38:17 pm »

Lean Dem.  Republicans would be better off waiting until 2027.  They would have a more impressive bench of candidates to choose from by then.  Remember, they just took all of the lower-level statewide offices last year, so they would be better-served letting their officeholders mature and gain experience by winning an additional term so they don't end up with another Ernie Fletcher or Matt Bevin.   
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KYRockefeller
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« Reply #14 on: August 04, 2020, 07:08:53 pm »
« Edited: August 04, 2020, 07:23:01 pm by KYRockefeller »

I'd say it's a lean D seat at the moment just because of Beshear's COVID response.  However, some of those measures remain unpopular, especially with their impact on business even if they've saved lives along the way.  His opponent will not be Cameron, who I think runs again for attorney general so he can run for Mitch's Senate seat in 2026, but will probably be Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles.  Quarles has built up strong links to the KY farm industry, which could generate big margins in rural areas.

Beshear only beat Bevin by 5,000 votes and that was largely on the back of people seeing Bevin as anti-education.  Counties that have traditionally leaned Republican in the Northern part of the state (which are typically the red suburbs of Cincinnati) and Warren County, home of Western Kentucky University, abandoned him.  Quarles doesn't have that baggage.  Also, Beshear has been unable to get his promised $2,000 pay raise for teachers through the legislature so that could dampen support.

Beshear's father did well under Obama in 2011 but he had the fortune of running against Senate President David Williams, who was INCREDIBLY unpopular with independents and a lot of members of the state Republican Party.  There wasn't really a good GOP opponent for Beshear anyway after all the congressional Republicans opted out of the race.

The power of incumbency means something but with the headwinds of a Biden presidency and the lack of a heat magnet like Bevin as an opponent, I think Beshear could struggle and lose.  I just think a lot of outsiders underestimate how much ground the Dems have lost in this state over the last twenty years.  They've won the governorship quite a bit, but in 2019 they lost every other statewide office (which is largely a vote of a generic R vs. a generic D) and the GOP has a super majority in the legislature.  Those are tough headwinds for any Democrat to overcome.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2020, 07:14:36 pm »

Likely R if Biden is President

Lean D if Trump is President

Tossup if Pence is President

Tilt R if Biden's VP is President
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KYRockefeller
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« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2020, 07:26:49 pm »

Lean Dem.  Republicans would be better off waiting until 2027.  They would have a more impressive bench of candidates to choose from by then.  Remember, they just took all of the lower-level statewide offices last year, so they would be better-served letting their officeholders mature and gain experience by winning an additional term so they don't end up with another Ernie Fletcher or Matt Bevin.   

This is largely true but Ag Commissioner Ryan Quarles is in his second term, as is state auditor Mike Harmon and state treasurer Allison Ball.  The state GOP already has a decent bench to choose from.  I thought Allison Grimes and Beshear would trade off the governorship for the Dems, but questions about Grimes' tenure as Secretary of State have hurt her future prospects.
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