MN-PPP: Smith +9

[VAR]

Smith 48%
Lewis 39%

https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/MinnesotaResults2.pdf

[Woody]

Pretty bad for Smith when she is under 50%, underperforming Biden & underperfoming her 2018 numbers in a D internal.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Pretty bad for Smith when she is under 50%, underperforming Biden & underperfoming her 2018 numbers in a D internal.

Even if Smith underperforms Biden, it would take nothing short of a GOP miracle for Biden to carry the state without Smith winning re-election.

[wbrocks67]

Pretty bad for Smith when she is under 50%, underperforming Biden & underperfoming her 2018 numbers in a D internal.

I would imagine that once undecideds break, she'll likely be close to 2018 #s

[SnowLabrador]

Pretty bad for Smith when she is under 50%, underperforming Biden & underperfoming her 2018 numbers in a D internal.

I would imagine that once undecideds break, she'll likely be close to 2018 #s

It's definitely worrying. Minnesota is indeed trending rightward.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, a landslide isnt inevitable in MN

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, it’s their best pick-up opportunity after AL and MI, but that’s not saying much in this environment. It would have been competitive in a close national election, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, it’s their best pick-up opportunity after AL and MI, but that’s not saying much in this environment. It would have been competitive in a close national election, though.

It will be close, polls are gonna get closer as election day gets closer as 3rd parties are gonna get included but MN is a slam dunk state

[tmthforu94]

Interesting - suggests this would have been close in a tied national environment. With the way Minnesota is trending, this will be a key target for Republicans in 2026.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

With the national environment and Lewis's weaknesses as a candidate in mind, I'm sure Smith will win comfortably.

[lfromnj]

With the national environment and Lewis's weaknesses as a candidate in mind, I'm sure Smith will win comfortably.

Why did this myth come about Lewis being weak or anything?
His actual performance has been fairly generic.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With the national environment and Lewis's weaknesses as a candidate in mind, I'm sure Smith will win comfortably.

Why did this myth come about Lewis being weak or anything?
His actual performance has been fairly generic.

His district is very polarized. The rural parts are very conservative (except Northfield which is hyper-liberal), the liberal suburan areas are pretty partisan and the close suburban areas are close but also don't swing much, they're the sort of places where the Democrats vote D and Republicans vote R and there's little crossover on either side.

Also Lewis' performance is actually pretty weak when you account for his share of the two party vote. He won in 2018 due to a left wing IP candidate* draining votes while Trump also narrowly carried the district with a small plurality. When there's not a strong third party performance it's hard to see him pulling the needed numbers.

*Who btw, and I know this is one of those things that sound crazy but I absolutely swear is true, is someone I used to work with. And was an absolute f[inks]ing pain and was eventually fired for that.

[NewYorkExpress]

Smith probably would lose if Trump was running particularly close in Minnesota (or if Klobuchar  was atop the ballot, as that means Trump would probably doing much better in Minnesota, up to a possible win).

I have this as Likely D.

While Trump likely will lose Minnesota, and Jason Lewis is a horrible candidate, I wouldn't completely rule just enough voters splitting their ballots to give Lewis a victory while also voting for Biden.

That said, another poll with this size margin, and I'd probably be convinced to move this one to  Safe D.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Smith probably would lose if Trump was running particularly close in Minnesota (or if Klobuchar  was atop the ballot, as that means Trump would probably doing much better in Minnesota, up to a possible win).

I have this as Likely D.

While Trump likely will lose Minnesota, and Jason Lewis is a horrible candidate, I wouldn't completely rule just enough voters splitting their ballots to give Lewis a victory while also voting for Biden.

That said, another poll with this size margin, and I'd probably be convinced to move this one to  Safe D.

Ahahahahahahaha. This is absurd even by your standards.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Still likely D. This only confirms what I already suspected.

[Xing]

Yeah, not particularly strong for Smith, but unless the environment suddenly becomes neutral or Republican-leaning, she should be fine.