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  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Oregon attorney general appeals to SCOTUS to stop redistricting measure on ballot
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Author Topic: Oregon attorney general appeals to SCOTUS to stop redistricting measure on ballot  (Read 290 times)
lfromnj
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« on: July 30, 2020, 08:58:58 pm »

https://www.opb.org/article/2020/07/29/gerrymandering-supreme-court-oregon/

It was due to the lower signature requirement given by a lower court.


IIRC the AR GOP did something similar too.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2020, 02:08:00 pm »

OR dems have a lot to lose here.  Only half of OR's seats will be in Portland metro, and without gerrymandering, good luck keeping Shrader AND DeFazio safe AND the new seat.  At best for Dems they'd get 4-2.
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Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party
DANNT
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2020, 11:49:31 pm »

OR dems have a lot to lose here.  Only half of OR's seats will be in Portland metro, and without gerrymandering, good luck keeping Shrader AND DeFazio safe AND the new seat.  At best for Dems they'd get 4-2.
Most likely outcome is 4-2 D which means they don't actually lose any seats.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2020, 08:44:09 am »

The current map is 2 Democratic districts, 1 Republican district and 2 swing seats. There's likely to be a third safe Democratic district and at least one more swing district, probably more likely two.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2020, 11:28:37 am »

The current map is 2 Democratic districts, 1 Republican district and 2 swing seats. There's likely to be a third safe Democratic district and at least one more swing district, probably more likely two.

Scraders district moves left
De Fazios moves to the right unless he picks up Ashland
And a new tilt r seat in the WIlliamette.
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Frémont Speaker Oregon Blue Dog
Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2020, 01:04:07 pm »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/eea2c1e2-ba6d-4844-8f44-8cf4d9f730d9
Here's what a fair map of Oregon could look like, assuming that no partisan considerations are made.

1st District (West Portland Burbs): Clinton +22.1, D+9.09
2nd District (Eastern Oregon and Medford/Ashland): Trump +16.7, R+9.93
3rd District (Portland proper): Clinton +63.2, D+31.86
4th District (Eugene and Southern Oregon): Trump +5.4, R+2.6
5th District (South and East Portland Burbs, rural Marion County): Clinton +1.1, R+1.16
6th District (Willamette Valley, Central Coast): Trump +0.2, R+0.6

Under this map, Democrats get badly shafted - both DeFazio and Schrader's districts move right, and while they should be fine, the 4th is probably gone for Democrats after DeFazio retires. While the ORGOP is incompetent, they can't be ruled out in a district as swingy as the 6th (and would be mildly favored there in a Biden midterm). In a bad year for Dems, a 2-4 map is possible (though unlikely given Clackamas County's leftward trend - also, Woodburn is zooming left) - though conversely a 5-1 is also possible until DeFazio hangs it up.

In terms of mapping, I'm mostly satisfied with the decisions made here, though Gresham and Salem both get slightly cut under this map. Another option (with little partisan effect) is to move more of Marion back into the 6th in exchange for Yamhill County, though that makes the 5th district more awkward. If Democrats want to draw a quasi-fair map that leans towards them, they could move Ashland and bluer parts of Medford into the 4th in exchange for titanium-R Central Point and White City (potentially Grants Pass as well), and/or have the 5th district take bluer areas out of Multnomah in lieu of Gresham (e.g. Hillsdale or Woodstock).
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2020, 02:05:35 pm »

Good. We have to get even. But I still want Biden and congress to mandate independent commissions so we can stop this madness. No one will have to gerrymander if it isn't allowed anywhere
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