Democrats fight back: NY Redistricting Amendment

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The state legislature recently voted to revamp the sham “independent” map drawing process and would give the Democratic legislature more power in drawing congressional and state maps. They need to pass it again next year before it goes to a November 2021 ballot referendum statewide, but if approved, would take place immediately.

This gives Democrats some leverage to use their states to fight back against the impending atrocities that will result from Republican maps in Texas, Georgia, Arizona and Florida where Republicans seem likely to go for a 27-12 map in the former and a 11-3 in Georgia, to speak nothing of Republicans gutting the Fair Florida amendments and drawing another 5 seats there.

Democrats can easily draw Stefanik into a tough swing seat down to the Albany suburbs, throw Tompkins County in with Katko/Brindisi and shore up Delgado, Maloney, Rose, and NY-02

[YE]

Both 27-12 and 11-3 in those two states would blow up in their faces at the end of the decade. AZ still has to respect the guidelines of the commission which encourages competiveness and is in a state where if they get too aggressive could also backfire.

And Stefanik probably isn't particularly touchable given how upstate NY tends to like moderate R incumbents.

The real solution here isn't reversing progress on the issue and giving the legislature more power. It's passing something like HR1 that would at least stop 2010 PA/OH/NC level gerrymanders.

[Zaybay]

This isnt an instance of "Democrats fighting back". The Dems were on track to get the majorities needed to overrule the commission anyway, albeit by a narrow margin. This amendment is being supported mainly because the Democrats want fewer Democrats to weigh in on the map.

It's less of a "Dems trying to gerrymander" and more of a "Dems want X faction to shut up when drawing the map".

Anyway, the current NY map cant really be improved that much. The best you can do is really just shore up the incumbents that the Dems have (mainly Rose and Delgado). Besides that, the Dems are at/near their ceiling in seats, and a gerrymander would only stabilize their gains, not give them a ton more.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This isnt an instance of "Democrats fighting back". The Dems were on track to get the majorities needed to overrule the commission anyway, albeit by a narrow margin. This amendment is being supported mainly because the Democrats want fewer Democrats to weigh in on the map.

It's less of a "Dems trying to gerrymander" and more of a "Dems want X faction to shut up when drawing the map".

Anyway, the current NY map cant really be improved that much. The best you can do is really just shore up the incumbents that the Dems have (mainly Rose and Delgado). Besides that, the Dems are at/near their ceiling in seats, and a gerrymander would only stabilize their gains, not give them a ton more.

That’s the point though. As it stands, Democrats really have no business holding NY-11 or NY-22. Getting the ability to gerrymander more makes their seats lean D. The only Republicans who are screwed by it would be Stefanik and Katko unless Democrats got really aggressive.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Both 27-12 and 11-3 in those two states would blow up in their faces at the end of the decade. AZ still has to respect the guidelines of the commission which encourages competiveness and is in a state where if they get too aggressive could also backfire.

And Stefanik probably isn't particularly touchable given how upstate NY tends to like moderate R incumbents.

The real solution here isn't reversing progress on the issue and giving the legislature more power. It's passing something like HR1 that would at least stop 2010 PA/OH/NC level gerrymanders.

It’s easy to draw 3 titanium D seats in metro Atlanta with the rest of the suburbs spiraling off to be attached to immovable 80-20 R counties in the north and south. You wouldn’t have a district as R as the current NW and NE GA seats, but they’d still hold up over the decade even as Democrats begin to dominate statewide vote totals.

[Gass3268]

This also gives them the chance to lock in a supermajority in the State Senate to go along with the State House.

[Zaybay]

This isnt an instance of "Democrats fighting back". The Dems were on track to get the majorities needed to overrule the commission anyway, albeit by a narrow margin. This amendment is being supported mainly because the Democrats want fewer Democrats to weigh in on the map.

It's less of a "Dems trying to gerrymander" and more of a "Dems want X faction to shut up when drawing the map".

Anyway, the current NY map cant really be improved that much. The best you can do is really just shore up the incumbents that the Dems have (mainly Rose and Delgado). Besides that, the Dems are at/near their ceiling in seats, and a gerrymander would only stabilize their gains, not give them a ton more.

That’s the point though. As it stands, Democrats really have no business holding NY-11 or NY-22. Getting the ability to gerrymander more makes their seats lean D. The only Republicans who are screwed by it would be Stefanik and Katko unless Democrats got really aggressive.

NY-11 isnt a Republican stronghold, its just Staten Island and the southern sliver of Brooklyn. Obama won this iteration of the seat by 5%, Trump only won it by 10%, and Cuomo was able to win the seat by 7% in his rather lackluster gubernatorial election.

As for NY-22, well, that seat's likely to not exist after 2022. A seat from upstate has to be eliminated, and NY-22 has always been the best candidate from both a fair, Democratic, and demographic perspective.

Besides Katko, who's already in a Clinton seat, who I wouldnt even advise to be given Tompkins county since its better to be given to Delgado, you cant really screw over any other R incumbents. The most likely would be NY-02, but even then its extremely difficult. Stefanik is completely safe. You cant reconfigure her seat without seriously endangering other Ds to the point that it would be counterproductive. 

The Ds are basically nearing their ceiling in the state, the best they can do is shore-up their own incumbents, not attempt to take down more Rs.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’ll address only your Stefanik part—no, her seat would not be safe if you drew the Albany suburbs into her seat. It would be a narrow Trump seat and Tonko would still be completely safe.

[Former President tack50]

Both 27-12 and 11-3 in those two states would blow up in their faces at the end of the decade. AZ still has to respect the guidelines of the commission which encourages competiveness and is in a state where if they get too aggressive could also backfire.

And Stefanik probably isn't particularly touchable given how upstate NY tends to like moderate R incumbents.

The real solution here isn't reversing progress on the issue and giving the legislature more power. It's passing something like HR1 that would at least stop 2010 PA/OH/NC level gerrymanders.

It’s easy to draw 3 titanium D seats in metro Atlanta with the rest of the suburbs spiraling off to be attached to immovable 80-20 R counties in the north and south. You wouldn’t have a district as R as the current NW and NE GA seats, but they’d still hold up over the decade even as Democrats begin to dominate statewide vote totals.

Yeah, drawing an 11-3 map with all R seats being safe is certainly possible. Here is an example map where all seats voted R for governor and president by at least 13 points:



Though you could also argue that Republicans will go for 10-4 and not cut any VRA seats. An 11-3 map leaves them vulnerable to a court challenge while 10-4 does not.

[Zaybay]

I’ll address only your Stefanik part—no, her seat would not be safe if you drew the Albany suburbs into her seat. It would be a narrow Trump seat and Tonko would still be completely safe.

Do you have a map where this is successfully done and nothing else from upstate is poorly impacted? Its a domino effect. Stefanik being given a swing seat requires other parts of the state to contort, and would have undesirable effects for the rest of the state delegation.

I also have to ask how Tonko could be safe after removing a key D part of his seat. Clinton only won this seat by 13.5%, afterall.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’ll address only your Stefanik part—no, her seat would not be safe if you drew the Albany suburbs into her seat. It would be a narrow Trump seat and Tonko would still be completely safe.

Do you have a map where this is successfully done and nothing else from upstate is poorly impacted? Its a domino effect. Stefanik being given a swing seat requires other parts of the state to contort, and would have undesirable effects for the rest of the state delegation.

I also have to ask how Tonko could be safe after removing a key D part of his seat. Clinton only won this seat by 13.5%, afterall.

Yes, just tell me how to upload an image here without using imgur and I’ll do it! Tonko’s seat would still be Clinton +10 which is bluer than any seat held by a Republican.

Also, the fact that we can now draw Rose and Brindisi Lean/Likely D seats is a big deal since normally those seats as they’re currently drawn will vote R in most neutral years.

[Zaybay]

I’ll address only your Stefanik part—no, her seat would not be safe if you drew the Albany suburbs into her seat. It would be a narrow Trump seat and Tonko would still be completely safe.

Do you have a map where this is successfully done and nothing else from upstate is poorly impacted? Its a domino effect. Stefanik being given a swing seat requires other parts of the state to contort, and would have undesirable effects for the rest of the state delegation.

I also have to ask how Tonko could be safe after removing a key D part of his seat. Clinton only won this seat by 13.5%, afterall.

Yes, just tell me how to upload an image here without using imgur and I’ll do it! Tonko’s seat would still be Clinton +10 which is bluer than any seat held by a Republican.

Also, the fact that we can now draw Rose and Brindisi Lean/Likely D seats is a big deal since normally those seats as they’re currently drawn will vote R in most neutral years.

You need to get a URL to the picture you want to post. You can use imgur, but you can also use services such as Discord or Snipboard.io

After you get that URL, just click the image icon and paste the image URL into the picture.

[lfromnj]

This split for Tonko and Stefanik is pretty neat and as its Whole counties its Clinton +7(2 party share) which isn't really secure and Stefanik has a R+1 composite score in area that has zoomed back to the GOP after its brief tenure of being Democratic federally.

[Sol]

This split for Tonko and Stefanik is pretty neat and as its Whole counties its Clinton +7(2 party share) which isn't really secure and Stefanik has a R+1 composite score in area that has zoomed back to the GOP after its brief tenure of being Democratic federally.

Do you have the DRA link?

My gut says Stefanik's district isn't worth messing with when you have to give Dems from Tonko and Delgado to her, thereby weakening the latter 2.

Ofc, maybe it's time revive chatter about a snake up to Plattsburgh--making Stefanik's seat a Republican sink might be better if it can shore up Delgado...

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b89237d-b905-4478-9d2a-194961313602

Sure here's the link , as I said its really not worth it for a Clinton +7 seat. Doesn't really hurt Delgado.

[Mr.Phips]

This isnt an instance of "Democrats fighting back". The Dems were on track to get the majorities needed to overrule the commission anyway, albeit by a narrow margin. This amendment is being supported mainly because the Democrats want fewer Democrats to weigh in on the map.

It's less of a "Dems trying to gerrymander" and more of a "Dems want X faction to shut up when drawing the map".

Anyway, the current NY map cant really be improved that much. The best you can do is really just shore up the incumbents that the Dems have (mainly Rose and Delgado). Besides that, the Dems are at/near their ceiling in seats, and a gerrymander would only stabilize their gains, not give them a ton more.

That’s the point though. As it stands, Democrats really have no business holding NY-11 or NY-22. Getting the ability to gerrymander more makes their seats lean D. The only Republicans who are screwed by it would be Stefanik and Katko unless Democrats got really aggressive.

NY-11 isnt a Republican stronghold, its just Staten Island and the southern sliver of Brooklyn. Obama won this iteration of the seat by 5%, Trump only won it by 10%, and Cuomo was able to win the seat by 7% in his rather lackluster gubernatorial election.

As for NY-22, well, that seat's likely to not exist after 2022. A seat from upstate has to be eliminated, and NY-22 has always been the best candidate from both a fair, Democratic, and demographic perspective.

Besides Katko, who's already in a Clinton seat, who I wouldnt even advise to be given Tompkins county since its better to be given to Delgado, you cant really screw over any other R incumbents. The most likely would be NY-02, but even then its extremely difficult. Stefanik is completely safe. You cant reconfigure her seat without seriously endangering other Ds to the point that it would be counterproductive.  

The Ds are basically nearing their ceiling in the state, the best they can do is shore-up their own incumbents, not attempt to take down more Rs.

Dems need to pack Republicans into both Reed and Stefanik’s districts and shore up everything that they hold.  Make Rose safe in NY-11 by giving him Soho and East Village rather than Soutb Brooklyn, give Sean Patrick Maloney an arm into the Bronx (and stick Kiryas Joel in Orange County into a Westchester/Bronx district), and give Delgado Ithaca.  

[lfromnj]

This isnt an instance of "Democrats fighting back". The Dems were on track to get the majorities needed to overrule the commission anyway, albeit by a narrow margin. This amendment is being supported mainly because the Democrats want fewer Democrats to weigh in on the map.

It's less of a "Dems trying to gerrymander" and more of a "Dems want X faction to shut up when drawing the map".

Anyway, the current NY map cant really be improved that much. The best you can do is really just shore up the incumbents that the Dems have (mainly Rose and Delgado). Besides that, the Dems are at/near their ceiling in seats, and a gerrymander would only stabilize their gains, not give them a ton more.

That’s the point though. As it stands, Democrats really have no business holding NY-11 or NY-22. Getting the ability to gerrymander more makes their seats lean D. The only Republicans who are screwed by it would be Stefanik and Katko unless Democrats got really aggressive.

NY-11 isnt a Republican stronghold, its just Staten Island and the southern sliver of Brooklyn. Obama won this iteration of the seat by 5%, Trump only won it by 10%, and Cuomo was able to win the seat by 7% in his rather lackluster gubernatorial election.

As for NY-22, well, that seat's likely to not exist after 2022. A seat from upstate has to be eliminated, and NY-22 has always been the best candidate from both a fair, Democratic, and demographic perspective.

Besides Katko, who's already in a Clinton seat, who I wouldnt even advise to be given Tompkins county since its better to be given to Delgado, you cant really screw over any other R incumbents. The most likely would be NY-02, but even then its extremely difficult. Stefanik is completely safe. You cant reconfigure her seat without seriously endangering other Ds to the point that it would be counterproductive. 

The Ds are basically nearing their ceiling in the state, the best they can do is shore-up their own incumbents, not attempt to take down more Rs.

Dems need to pack Republicans into both Reed and Stefanik’s districts and shore up everything that they hold.  Make Rose safe in NY-11 by giving him Soho and East Village rather than Soutb Brooklyn, give Sean Patrick Maloney an arm into the Bronx, and give Delgado Ithaca. 

Theres no reason to go into Soho, West Brooklyn has plenty of white liberals.

[Mr.Phips]

This isnt an instance of "Democrats fighting back". The Dems were on track to get the majorities needed to overrule the commission anyway, albeit by a narrow margin. This amendment is being supported mainly because the Democrats want fewer Democrats to weigh in on the map.

It's less of a "Dems trying to gerrymander" and more of a "Dems want X faction to shut up when drawing the map".



Anyway, the current NY map cant really be improved that much. The best you can do is really just shore up the incumbents that the Dems have (mainly Rose and Delgado). Besides that, the Dems are at/near their ceiling in seats, and a gerrymander would only stabilize their gains, not give them a ton more.

That’s the point though. As it stands, Democrats really have no business holding NY-11 or NY-22. Getting the ability to gerrymander more makes their seats lean D. The only Republicans who are screwed by it would be Stefanik and Katko unless Democrats got really aggressive.

NY-11 isnt a Republican stronghold, its just Staten Island and the southern sliver of Brooklyn. Obama won this iteration of the seat by 5%, Trump only won it by 10%, and Cuomo was able to win the seat by 7% in his rather lackluster gubernatorial election.

As for NY-22, well, that seat's likely to not exist after 2022. A seat from upstate has to be eliminated, and NY-22 has always been the best candidate from both a fair, Democratic, and demographic perspective.

Besides Katko, who's already in a Clinton seat, who I wouldnt even advise to be given Tompkins county since its better to be given to Delgado, you cant really screw over any other R incumbents. The most likely would be NY-02, but even then its extremely difficult. Stefanik is completely safe. You cant reconfigure her seat without seriously endangering other Ds to the point that it would be counterproductive.  

The Ds are basically nearing their ceiling in the state, the best they can do is shore-up their own incumbents, not attempt to take down more Rs.

Dems need to pack Republicans into both Reed and Stefanik’s districts and shore up everything that they hold.  Make Rose safe in NY-11 by giving him Soho and East Village rather than Soutb Brooklyn, give Sean Patrick Maloney an arm into the Bronx, and give Delgado Ithaca.  

Theres no reason to go into Soho, West Brooklyn has plenty of white liberals.

Soho would be like 85% Dem and make it so a Republican would need close to 65% in Staten Island to beat Rose.

[lfromnj]

This isnt an instance of "Democrats fighting back". The Dems were on track to get the majorities needed to overrule the commission anyway, albeit by a narrow margin. This amendment is being supported mainly because the Democrats want fewer Democrats to weigh in on the map.

It's less of a "Dems trying to gerrymander" and more of a "Dems want X faction to shut up when drawing the map".



Anyway, the current NY map cant really be improved that much. The best you can do is really just shore up the incumbents that the Dems have (mainly Rose and Delgado). Besides that, the Dems are at/near their ceiling in seats, and a gerrymander would only stabilize their gains, not give them a ton more.

That’s the point though. As it stands, Democrats really have no business holding NY-11 or NY-22. Getting the ability to gerrymander more makes their seats lean D. The only Republicans who are screwed by it would be Stefanik and Katko unless Democrats got really aggressive.

NY-11 isnt a Republican stronghold, its just Staten Island and the southern sliver of Brooklyn. Obama won this iteration of the seat by 5%, Trump only won it by 10%, and Cuomo was able to win the seat by 7% in his rather lackluster gubernatorial election.

As for NY-22, well, that seat's likely to not exist after 2022. A seat from upstate has to be eliminated, and NY-22 has always been the best candidate from both a fair, Democratic, and demographic perspective.

Besides Katko, who's already in a Clinton seat, who I wouldnt even advise to be given Tompkins county since its better to be given to Delgado, you cant really screw over any other R incumbents. The most likely would be NY-02, but even then its extremely difficult. Stefanik is completely safe. You cant reconfigure her seat without seriously endangering other Ds to the point that it would be counterproductive.  

The Ds are basically nearing their ceiling in the state, the best they can do is shore-up their own incumbents, not attempt to take down more Rs.

Dems need to pack Republicans into both Reed and Stefanik’s districts and shore up everything that they hold.  Make Rose safe in NY-11 by giving him Soho and East Village rather than Soutb Brooklyn, give Sean Patrick Maloney an arm into the Bronx, and give Delgado Ithaca.  

Theres no reason to go into Soho, West Brooklyn has plenty of white liberals.

Soho would be like 85% Dem and make it so a Republican would need close to 70% in Staten Island to beat Rose.

Manhattan Ds want 3 seats there is 0 chance they give up some of their space to Staten Island



This is D+23 composite 2012 to 2016 and the Brooklyn portion is whiter than Staten Island   Theres literally no reason to do the extra county split

[Mr.Phips]

This isnt an instance of "Democrats fighting back". The Dems were on track to get the majorities needed to overrule the commission anyway, albeit by a narrow margin. This amendment is being supported mainly because the Democrats want fewer Democrats to weigh in on the map.

It's less of a "Dems trying to gerrymander" and more of a "Dems want X faction to shut up when drawing the map".



Anyway, the current NY map cant really be improved that much. The best you can do is really just shore up the incumbents that the Dems have (mainly Rose and Delgado). Besides that, the Dems are at/near their ceiling in seats, and a gerrymander would only stabilize their gains, not give them a ton more.

That’s the point though. As it stands, Democrats really have no business holding NY-11 or NY-22. Getting the ability to gerrymander more makes their seats lean D. The only Republicans who are screwed by it would be Stefanik and Katko unless Democrats got really aggressive.

NY-11 isnt a Republican stronghold, its just Staten Island and the southern sliver of Brooklyn. Obama won this iteration of the seat by 5%, Trump only won it by 10%, and Cuomo was able to win the seat by 7% in his rather lackluster gubernatorial election.

As for NY-22, well, that seat's likely to not exist after 2022. A seat from upstate has to be eliminated, and NY-22 has always been the best candidate from both a fair, Democratic, and demographic perspective.

Besides Katko, who's already in a Clinton seat, who I wouldnt even advise to be given Tompkins county since its better to be given to Delgado, you cant really screw over any other R incumbents. The most likely would be NY-02, but even then its extremely difficult. Stefanik is completely safe. You cant reconfigure her seat without seriously endangering other Ds to the point that it would be counterproductive. 

The Ds are basically nearing their ceiling in the state, the best they can do is shore-up their own incumbents, not attempt to take down more Rs.

Dems need to pack Republicans into both Reed and Stefanik’s districts and shore up everything that they hold.  Make Rose safe in NY-11 by giving him Soho and East Village rather than Soutb Brooklyn, give Sean Patrick Maloney an arm into the Bronx, and give Delgado Ithaca. 

Theres no reason to go into Soho, West Brooklyn has plenty of white liberals.

Soho would be like 85% Dem and make it so a Republican would need close to 70% in Staten Island to beat Rose.

Manhattan Ds want 3 seats there is 0 chance they give up some of their space to Staten Island



This is D+23 composite 2012 to 2016. 

Would taking these areas from a Brooklyn Dem zest potentially endanger a Brooklyn Dem?  They would just need to make sure that the Bay Ridge area isn’t linked with places like Borough Park that could give Republicans an opening.

[lfromnj]

This isnt an instance of "Democrats fighting back". The Dems were on track to get the majorities needed to overrule the commission anyway, albeit by a narrow margin. This amendment is being supported mainly because the Democrats want fewer Democrats to weigh in on the map.

It's less of a "Dems trying to gerrymander" and more of a "Dems want X faction to shut up when drawing the map".



Anyway, the current NY map cant really be improved that much. The best you can do is really just shore up the incumbents that the Dems have (mainly Rose and Delgado). Besides that, the Dems are at/near their ceiling in seats, and a gerrymander would only stabilize their gains, not give them a ton more.

That’s the point though. As it stands, Democrats really have no business holding NY-11 or NY-22. Getting the ability to gerrymander more makes their seats lean D. The only Republicans who are screwed by it would be Stefanik and Katko unless Democrats got really aggressive.

NY-11 isnt a Republican stronghold, its just Staten Island and the southern sliver of Brooklyn. Obama won this iteration of the seat by 5%, Trump only won it by 10%, and Cuomo was able to win the seat by 7% in his rather lackluster gubernatorial election.

As for NY-22, well, that seat's likely to not exist after 2022. A seat from upstate has to be eliminated, and NY-22 has always been the best candidate from both a fair, Democratic, and demographic perspective.

Besides Katko, who's already in a Clinton seat, who I wouldnt even advise to be given Tompkins county since its better to be given to Delgado, you cant really screw over any other R incumbents. The most likely would be NY-02, but even then its extremely difficult. Stefanik is completely safe. You cant reconfigure her seat without seriously endangering other Ds to the point that it would be counterproductive. 

The Ds are basically nearing their ceiling in the state, the best they can do is shore-up their own incumbents, not attempt to take down more Rs.

Dems need to pack Republicans into both Reed and Stefanik’s districts and shore up everything that they hold.  Make Rose safe in NY-11 by giving him Soho and East Village rather than Soutb Brooklyn, give Sean Patrick Maloney an arm into the Bronx, and give Delgado Ithaca. 

Theres no reason to go into Soho, West Brooklyn has plenty of white liberals.

Soho would be like 85% Dem and make it so a Republican would need close to 70% in Staten Island to beat Rose.

Manhattan Ds want 3 seats there is 0 chance they give up some of their space to Staten Island



This is D+23 composite 2012 to 2016. 

Would taking these areas from a Brooklyn Dem zest potentially endanger a Brooklyn Dem?  They would just need to make sure that the Bay Ridge area isn’t linked with places like Borough Park that could give Republicans an opening.

This shores up everyone except Rose in a primary. Brooklyn white Ds are incredibly dangerous for a primary so everyone else should be happy. Rose is pretty young so can pivot to being a progressive and he might survive the decade while he would almost certainly lose eventually in a trump +11 seat.

[Non Swing Voter]

Good.  This purity nonsense from Democrats that they need to run their states as fair as possible and not gerrymander while the other side pisses all over democracy has not been working for anyone, particularly their own voters who got screwed on the recent tax bill by Republicans.  Democrats should gerrymander the hell out of their states until Republicans fight fair. 

[SevenEleven]

I’ll address only your Stefanik part—no, her seat would not be safe if you drew the Albany suburbs into her seat. It would be a narrow Trump seat and Tonko would still be completely safe.

Do you have a map where this is successfully done and nothing else from upstate is poorly impacted? Its a domino effect. Stefanik being given a swing seat requires other parts of the state to contort, and would have undesirable effects for the rest of the state delegation.

I also have to ask how Tonko could be safe after removing a key D part of his seat. Clinton only won this seat by 13.5%, afterall.

Yes, just tell me how to upload an image here without using imgur and I’ll do it! Tonko’s seat would still be Clinton +10 which is bluer than any seat held by a Republican.

Also, the fact that we can now draw Rose and Brindisi Lean/Likely D seats is a big deal since normally those seats as they’re currently drawn will vote R in most neutral years.

I just upload images straight to the site gallery--there is a category for redistricting maps.