1988: Joe Biden vs. Bob Dole

[Sir Mohamed]

Bob Dole upsets HW Bush as the GOP nominee while Joe Biden never plagiarizes that fateful speech and moves on the become the Dem nominee for president. Who are they choosing as VPs and how does the GE turn out in the end?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dole.  By a comfortable margin.

Even if he hadn't plagiarized, Biden is simply not popular.  He only has borrowed popularity now.  Dole is seen as authentic.  Biden, well . . .

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dole.  By a comfortable margin.

Even if he hadn't plagiarized, Biden is simply not popular.  He only has borrowed popularity now.  Dole is seen as authentic.  Biden, well . . .

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Dole.  By a comfortable margin.

Even if he hadn't plagiarized, Biden is simply not popular.  He only has borrowed popularity now.  Dole is seen as authentic.  Biden, well . . .

I agree with most of your post, but Biden is definitely authentic.

[dw93]

If Biden has no health issues like he did OTL, Biden wins. Everybody here is forgetting just how bad of a candidate Bob Dole was when he ran nationally (see 1996 and 1976 as Ford's running mate). Plus, rejecting Bush is kind of a rejection of Reagan so that tilts things in Biden's favor to.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Biden has no health issues, this race basically is a tossup.

Biden circa 1988 and Dole circa 2016 were both really bad campaigners on a national scale.

I'd give a very narrow edge to Dole because Reagan was exiting office popular, but he easily could blow it.

[Left Wing]

Biden circa 1988 and Dole circa 2016 were both really bad campaigners

Yeah bob dole was a really bad campaigner in 2016

[NewYorkExpress]

Biden circa 1988 and Dole circa 2016 were both really bad campaigners

Yeah bob dole was a really bad campaigner in 2016

Oops. That should have also read 1988.

[darklordoftech]

I’d say Biden because party fatigue + Biden would be immune to Atwater-style attacks unless he voted against Reagan’s military budgets.

Senator Joe Biden/Representative Dick Gephardt
Senator Bob Dole/Representative Jack Kemp

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I’d say Biden because party fatigue + Biden would immune to Atwater-style attacks unless he voted against Reagan’s military budgets.

Senator Joe Biden/Representative Dick Gephardt
Senator Bob Dole/Representative Jack Kemp

Colorado?? The state where Dole beat Clinton? No way.

I also think that Biden would not have done as well as Clinton in the South.

You also coloured Delaware in blue...  

[darklordoftech]

I’d say Biden because party fatigue + Biden would immune to Atwater-style attacks unless he voted against Reagan’s military budgets.

Senator Joe Biden/Representative Dick Gephardt
Senator Bob Dole/Representative Jack Kemp

Colorado?? The state where Dole beat Clinton? No way.

I also think that Biden would not have done as well as Clinton in the South.

You also coloured Delaware in blue...  

I flipped the states that were close, and good catch with Delaware.

[President Johnson]

Without the plagarism, Joe Biden would have been an authentic, energetic and likeable campaigner in comparison to Bob Dole. Latter's biggest asset would have been Reagan, keeping it relatively close. After all, Joe Biden wins by a fair margin. I still think Jack Kemp would have been Dole's running mate. Unsure about Joe Biden. Mario Cuomo would have been a perfect fit, but I doubt he would have accepted.

✓ Senator Joseph R. Biden (D-DE)/Governor Richard F. Celeste (D-OH): 292 EV. (50.37%)
Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/HUD Secretary Jack French Kemp (R-NY): 246 EV. (48.29%)

[😥]

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sen. Al Gore (D-TN) 312 EVs; 51.21% PV
Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS)/Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY) 226 EVs; 46.93% PV

[OSR stands with Israel]

Senator Minority Leader Bob Dole(R-KS)/Congressman Jack Kemp(R-NY) 306 51.1%
Senator Joe Biden(D-DE)/Congressman Dick Gephardt(D-MO) 232 47.8%

[Senator-elect Spark]

Senator Minority Leader Bob Dole(R-KS)/Congressman Jack Kemp(R-NY) 306 51.1%
Senator Joe Biden(D-DE)/Congressman Dick Gephardt(D-MO) 232 47.8%

[Alcibiades]

Biden, assuming he didn’t have the issues which meant he wasn’t able to win the nomination in real life, would have won. He would have been able to withstand the Atwater attacks better, and Dole really was an atrocious candidate, simultaneously uninspiring and gaffe-prone.

Biden: 329 EV; 52%
Dole: 209 EV; 47%

Colorado?? The state where Dole beat Clinton? No way.

I also think that Biden would not have done as well as Clinton in the South.

You also coloured Delaware in blue...  

Colorado only voted 0.05% to the right of the nation in 1988. If a Democrat won the election in 1988, they would have won Colorado.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Colorado?? The state where Dole beat Clinton? No way.

I also think that Biden would not have done as well as Clinton in the South.

You also coloured Delaware in blue...  

Colorado only voted 0.05% to the right of the nation in 1988. If a Democrat won the election in 1988, they would have won Colorado.

I don't know.
I think that Dole was a better fit for Colorado than Bush and probably Biden was as well a worse fit than Dukakis.

[Alcibiades]

Colorado?? The state where Dole beat Clinton? No way.

I also think that Biden would not have done as well as Clinton in the South.

You also coloured Delaware in blue...  

Colorado only voted 0.05% to the right of the nation in 1988. If a Democrat won the election in 1988, they would have won Colorado.

I don't know.
I think that Dole was a better fit for Colorado than Bush and probably Biden was as well a worse fit than Dukakis.

Dole was pretty much a worse fit than Bush in every state except Kansas. Similarly, Biden was a better fit in most states than Dukakis.

[Alben Barkley]

I’d say Biden because party fatigue + Biden would immune to Atwater-style attacks unless he voted against Reagan’s military budgets.

Senator Joe Biden/Representative Dick Gephardt
Senator Bob Dole/Representative Jack Kemp

Colorado?? The state where Dole beat Clinton? No way.

I also think that Biden would not have done as well as Clinton in the South.

You also coloured Delaware in blue...  

Colorado is also the state where Clinton beat Bush, and Dole’s victory was real narrow. It’s not that Dole was a super great fit for Colorado. His narrow win was probably little more than an effect of the decreased Perot vote. I guess Dole being from Kansas might have helped him somewhat in the eastern part of the state, but in 1988, against Biden with no Perot factor? It was just a different climate. If Biden was winning nationwide, I’m not convinced Dole being from Kansas would give him enough of a boost in Colorado to save him there at that time.

[darklordoftech]

Dole voted against Medicare, called Watergate a “liberal media hoax” and said that the hearings should be closed off from the press, insisted that Vietnam was going well until the very end, and accused an opponent for Senate of performing abortions without evidence. That’s a lot of baggage.

[Roll Roons]

These two would make it an election for the ages. Nonstop hilarity on the campaign trail and in debates.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Colorado?? The state where Dole beat Clinton? No way.

I also think that Biden would not have done as well as Clinton in the South.

You also coloured Delaware in blue...  

Colorado is also the state where Clinton beat Bush, and Dole’s victory was real narrow. It’s not that Dole was a super great fit for Colorado. His narrow win was probably little more than an effect of the decreased Perot vote. I guess Dole being from Kansas might have helped him somewhat in the eastern part of the state, but in 1988, against Biden with no Perot factor? It was just a different climate. If Biden was winning nationwide, I’m not convinced Dole being from Kansas would give him enough of a boost in Colorado to save him there at that time.

Yes I may have gotten too far in my first post.

I have a question: was Colorado affected in a significant way by the 1980's farming crisis?

[Fuzzy Bear]

(52%) Sen. Robert Dole (R-KS)/Gov. George Deukmajian (R-CA)  305 EV
(47%)Sen Joseph Biden (D-DE)/Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-MO)  233 EV

The critical states would be CA, NJ, OH, MI, IL, CT, and MO.

Biden would have had to run the table on those states.  He would win some.  But he'd lose CA narrowly (Dole would pick Deukmajian as his VP) and he'd lose OH.  He'd also lose TX and LA by a bigger margin than Dukakis did.

If he picked John Glenn, Biden would have done a wee bit better, but he may have lost MO while winning OH.

Dole was the last of the Greatest Generation to run for President in 1996.  He had his flaws as a candidate, but he was considered authentic.  Biden's problem then would be the same as now; there wasn't anyone who was a Biden man.  He was a candidate, then and now, whose appeal was based on his perceived ability to win.  That's a thin level of support. 

[Alben Barkley]

Colorado?? The state where Dole beat Clinton? No way.

I also think that Biden would not have done as well as Clinton in the South.

You also coloured Delaware in blue...  

Colorado is also the state where Clinton beat Bush, and Dole’s victory was real narrow. It’s not that Dole was a super great fit for Colorado. His narrow win was probably little more than an effect of the decreased Perot vote. I guess Dole being from Kansas might have helped him somewhat in the eastern part of the state, but in 1988, against Biden with no Perot factor? It was just a different climate. If Biden was winning nationwide, I’m not convinced Dole being from Kansas would give him enough of a boost in Colorado to save him there at that time.

Yes I may have gotten too far in my first post.

I have a question: was Colorado affected in a significant way by the 1980's farming crisis?

I think actually the eastern part of the state in particular was. And Kansas certainly was, to the point it was only 2% to the right of the nation — much less so than it usually is/was. So that’s another reason why I don’t think Dole would give much of a boost in CO. I think he would underperform somewhat even in KS. Honestly, with so many typically Republican states that had huge swings and were much closer than usual thanks to the farm crisis? A better Democratic candidate could well have taken advantage of that to clean up in a landslide that year. Contrary to popular thinking, I actually think Bill Clinton could have won bigger in 1988 than he did in 1992 had he been the nominee for this reason. He could not have been attacked as an out-of-touch liberal coastal elitist letting criminals run wild and such as Dukakis was. He would have been from the heartland, giving him bonus points in the South, Midwest, and Plains. He still would have been highly charismatic and plain-spoken, boosting him more there. And he would not have hesitated to blast Bush for the farm crisis and Iran-Contra, etc. I honestly think Clinton could have won like 40 states that year.