PA (Franklin & Marshall): Biden +9
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  PA (Franklin & Marshall): Biden +9
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Author Topic: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Biden +9  (Read 1419 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: July 30, 2020, 05:58:19 AM »

Biden     50
Trump    41

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/90560429767618014-f-m-poll-release-july-2020.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2020, 05:59:46 AM »

FINALLY! I was wondering why F&M and Muhlenberg hadn't put out PA polls since the damn primary!

This lines up with what we've seen - most of the high quality polling has had Biden 8-11 in PA.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2020, 06:09:12 AM »

Favorabilities:
Trump: 42/56 (53% “strongly unfavorable”)
Biden: 48/48
Tom Wolf: 55/36
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2020, 10:51:03 AM »

If Trump can't change those high unfavorables or severely sink Biden, I have trouble seeing how he keeps this state in his column. Biden will do better than HRC among WWC voters and improve in suburbs around Philly, Pittsburgh and Erie. That's all he needs to do to capture these 20 EVs.
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jeron
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2020, 11:45:41 AM »

Trump is getting clubbered in Eastern PA. He cant make up for that in the rest of the state, even though  Biden isnt doing particularly well in Northwestern PA
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2020, 11:55:54 AM »

Gravis had this plus 3
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2020, 12:01:22 PM »

Biden is +23 in the NE. Cartwright should be more than fine.
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Badger
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« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2020, 04:12:03 PM »

Trump is getting clubbered in Eastern PA. He cant make up for that in the rest of the state, even though  Biden isnt doing particularly well in Northwestern PA

Neither surprising nor problematic. The Northwest part of the state, outside of Erie, is the most conservative part of the state, or at least comprable to Central PA in that regard depending on how you divide the borders.

And it's not problematic because, again, outside of Erie where I expect Biden will revert to Obama level Victory margins, that part of the state produces very little of the vote.

To me, the big thing was how well Biden is doing in the Allegheny County and Southwest part of the state. After Trump basically romped here everywhere outside of Allegheny County, that's a huge shift.
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Roblox
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« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2020, 04:15:00 PM »

Biden is +23 in the NE. Cartwright should be more than fine.

What were the 2016/2012 Margins in the Northeast?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2020, 06:02:54 PM »

If Trump can't change those high unfavorables or severely sink Biden, I have trouble seeing how he keeps this state in his column. Biden will do better than HRC among WWC voters and improve in suburbs around Philly, Pittsburgh and Erie. That's all he needs to do to capture these 20 EVs.

At this point, the distinction between favorability and approval for an incumbent seeking re-election is nearly impossible to discern. Unfavorability or disapproval in the 53% for strong and 56% total is a killer.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2020, 06:49:33 PM »

This will be the Keystone to the White House for Biden, hopefully.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2020, 10:08:06 PM »

Good for Trump
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jeron
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2020, 12:38:31 AM »

Biden is +23 in the NE. Cartwright should be more than fine.

What were the 2016/2012 Margins in the Northeast?

Hillary lost it by 13
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2020, 08:20:13 PM »

PA is looking almost as good as MI for Biden to win.
Nice.
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