2002 election prediction thread

[Orwell]

Hello folks! This is the first post in the 2002 election thread, In the 2000 midterms, The Democratic Party and The Republican Party faced off there was no net change in the composition of the House of Representatives and the GOP gained 4 seats in the United States Senate, the most notable defeat was Senator Tom Marino of Pennsylvania who was defeated by Congressman Morgan Mitchell. We have our nominees President Josiah Bartlet of New Hampshire, who's first 4 years in office have been rocky from the shocking revelation of his Multiple Sclerosis to the disgusting act of terrorism in Rosslyn. The Democratic nominee for President is the incumbent President Josiah Bartlet of New Hampshire, Bartlet a Nobel prize-winning economist and former 2 term Governor of New Hampshire was elected by a slim margin in 1998 as seen below.

President Bartlet is joined on the ticket by Vice President John Hoynes of Texas. On the opposite side, we have Governor Robert Ritchie of Florida and Senator Jeff Heston of Utah. Governor Ritchie's campaign is focused on slashing taxes and shrinking government. His plan includes a large tax cut for all Americans, wide-ranging corporate tax cuts, the abolition of the estate tax or the "death tax" as opponents have christened it, the repeal of said tax was a hot issue on Capitol Hill last year as the President vetoed a bill to repeal the tax, and the veto narrowly survived an override by the Republican majority. As of today, President Bartlet's approval rating hovers around 48%, we have recently seen 4 polls seen below.

I would like to hear your guys opinion on the election, I think that it's going to be a tough fight, but Bartlet is going to pull out a narrow win. Please respond with maps.

[tmthforu94]

Bartlett lost as soon as it was revealed he was hiding his MS from the American public. He has lost our trust - I think most swing states will break against him, Ritchie will win comfortably.

[YPestis25]

Sad to say I agree with tmthforu94. Bartlett should have let Hoynes take the reins. A Hoynes/Baker ticket could have managed to hold the White House. Oh well, there's always 2006.

[Orwell]

Bartlett lost as soon as it was revealed he was hiding his MS from the American public. He has lost our trust - I think most swing states will break against him, Ritchie will win comfortably.

Did you see the debate the other night? I think Bartlet creamed Ritchie maybe he can make a comeback.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bartlett lost as soon as it was revealed he was hiding his MS from the American public. He has lost our trust - I think most swing states will break against him, Ritchie will win comfortably.

Did you see the debate the other night? I think Bartlet creamed Ritchie maybe he can make a comeback.

Not too long ago I binge watched The West Wing.  During the debate episode, my son (who's interested in politics but not the show) wandered through the room, got interested in the debate, and sat down to watch the entire episode with me.

[Del Tachi]

God, I hate this show so much.

[brucejoel99]

Bartlett lost as soon as it was revealed he was hiding his MS from the American public. He has lost our trust - I think most swing states will break against him, Ritchie will win comfortably.

Did you see the debate the other night? I think Bartlet creamed Ritchie maybe he can make a comeback.

The idea that Bartlet (a liberal New Englander who just admitted he lied to the country about MS) can make a comeback against Ritchie (a staunchly conservative Republican Governor who didn't just lie to the entire country about MS) just because he beat him in a debate is a bit fantastical

Nevertheless, incumbency is still a pretty big deal, & the fundamentals (the economy & geopolitical affairs) are all pretty stable/good, which favors Bartlet. The MS scandal was big in the media, yes, but I don't think it was something your average, disinterested voter paid much attention to (&, not to mention, it being revealed a year-&-a-1/2 ago makes it pretty far removed from the election).

So, historically speaking, Bartlet should expect a win. Maybe not a landslide, but a win nonetheless.