Rate Virginia and the margin

[creepie crazy Raccoon]

Safe D.

But contrary to what posters who don't know where Arlington is located on a map say, it wouldn't have been even close to Safe D if Bernie were the nominee. 

Currently the margin would be Biden +16.  I expect it to be around Biden +11 on Election Day.

Oh I believe Bernie would have won Virginia now. But I remember many people had all of Nova except Arlington and Alexandria voting overwhelmingly for Trump if Bernie had been the nominee. lol...

[creepie crazy Raccoon]

Biden 56.4
Trump 42.0
Other 1.6

is my guess.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Safe D.  Biden 54% Trump 44%.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

D+ 12-14.

[Fusternino]

The margin will be 2-3 points to the left of the national vote. So, Likely/Safe D in this environment.

VA still has a lot of religious people and gun owners . . . in an even environment, it's very much in play.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

The margin will be 2-3 points to the left of the national vote. So, Likely/Safe D in this environment.

VA still has a lot of religious people and gun owners . . . in an even environment, it's very much in play.

2000: +8.55% R
2004: +5.74% R
2008: +0.96% R
2012: even
2016: +3.23% D

The DMV metro continues to boom. The same trends that turned DE and NJ reliably D are happening in VA. I don't expect it to be competitive at all past 2024.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I predicted a 4 to 6 margin and I am right, the polls are tightening,  Biden will win VA by the same 4 pt margin as Hillary did

[Non Swing Voter]

Safe D.

But contrary to what posters who don't know where Arlington is located on a map say, it wouldn't have been even close to Safe D if Bernie were the nominee. 

Currently the margin would be Biden +16.  I expect it to be around Biden +11 on Election Day.

Oh I believe Bernie would have won Virginia now. But I remember many people had all of Nova except Arlington and Alexandria voting overwhelmingly for Trump if Bernie had been the nominee. lol...

Definitely not the case.  I think Bernie would have won the three big counties but at much smaller margins than Biden.  Biden is going to absolutely obliterate trump in NoVa.  I would not be surprised if he gets close to 70% in the combined Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun region. 

[Fusternino]

The margin will be 2-3 points to the left of the national vote. So, Likely/Safe D in this environment.

VA still has a lot of religious people and gun owners . . . in an even environment, it's very much in play.

2000: +8.55% R
2004: +5.74% R
2008: +0.96% R
2012: even
2016: +3.23% D

The DMV metro continues to boom. The same trends that turned DE and NJ reliably D are happening in VA. I don't expect it to be competitive at all past 2024.

Studies have shown that was by how much (~2-3) that Kaine increased Clinton's margin by. There also could've been backlash to the gun bill. But it doesn't matter because we're in a Biden +8-10 national environment.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Safe D (sane).

[creepie crazy Raccoon]

The margin will be 2-3 points to the left of the national vote. So, Likely/Safe D in this environment.

VA still has a lot of religious people and gun owners . . . in an even environment, it's very much in play.

2000: +8.55% R
2004: +5.74% R
2008: +0.96% R
2012: even
2016: +3.23% D

The DMV metro continues to boom. The same trends that turned DE and NJ reliably D are happening in VA. I don't expect it to be competitive at all past 2024.

Studies have shown that was by how much (~2-3) that Kaine increased Clinton's margin by. There also could've been backlash to the gun bill. But it doesn't matter because we're in a Biden +8-10 national environment.

Which studies

[Non Swing Voter]

Kaine was probably the worst VP pick since Sarah Palin.

[ultraviolet]

Kaine was probably the worst VP pick since Sarah Palin.

Well there were only two between Palin and Kaine... but I’d say Kaine was better than Ryan anyway

[Morgan Kingsley]

Biden +9

[big data boi]

Likely Biden

54% - 43%

Biden +11%

[ProudModerate2]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean D.

Biden 50 - 46 Trump

LOL

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe D. Biden wins between 9 and 12 points.

I'm glad I kept this one vague. I was actually right with a margin prediction from this election, other than guessing that Biden would win NE-2 by six-I nailed that one!