Rate Virginia and the margin
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  Rate Virginia and the margin 		« previous next »
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Poll
Question: Rate Virginia
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Tilt D		  
#5
Tossup 		 
#6
Tilt R		  
#7
Lean R		  
#8
Likely R		  
#9
Safe R 		 
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 113

Author Topic: Rate Virginia and the margin  (Read 1881 times)
jamestroll
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« Reply #25 on: July 29, 2020, 03:53:57 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on July 28, 2020, 08:57:34 PM
Safe D.

But contrary to what posters who don't know where Arlington is located on a map say, it wouldn't have been even close to Safe D if Bernie were the nominee. 

Currently the margin would be Biden +16.  I expect it to be around Biden +11 on Election Day.

Oh I believe Bernie would have won Virginia now. But I remember many people had all of Nova except Arlington and Alexandria voting overwhelmingly for Trump if Bernie had been the nominee. lol...
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jamestroll
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« Reply #26 on: July 29, 2020, 01:37:47 PM »
Biden 56.4
Trump 42.0
Other 1.6

is my guess.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #27 on: July 29, 2020, 02:41:08 PM »
Safe D.  Biden 54% Trump 44%.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: July 29, 2020, 03:03:32 PM »
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #29 on: July 29, 2020, 04:37:41 PM »
D+ 12-14.
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Fusternino
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« Reply #30 on: July 29, 2020, 05:05:20 PM »
The margin will be 2-3 points to the left of the national vote. So, Likely/Safe D in this environment.

VA still has a lot of religious people and gun owners . . . in an even environment, it's very much in play.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #31 on: July 29, 2020, 05:14:53 PM »
Quote from: Fusternino on July 29, 2020, 05:05:20 PM
The margin will be 2-3 points to the left of the national vote. So, Likely/Safe D in this environment.

VA still has a lot of religious people and gun owners . . . in an even environment, it's very much in play.

2000: +8.55% R
2004: +5.74% R
2008: +0.96% R
2012: even
2016: +3.23% D

The DMV metro continues to boom. The same trends that turned DE and NJ reliably D are happening in VA. I don't expect it to be competitive at all past 2024.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #32 on: July 29, 2020, 06:33:55 PM »
I predicted a 4 to 6 margin and I am right, the polls are tightening,  Biden will win VA by the same 4 pt margin as Hillary did
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: July 29, 2020, 07:51:08 PM »
Quote from: jimmie on July 29, 2020, 03:53:57 AM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on July 28, 2020, 08:57:34 PM
Safe D.

But contrary to what posters who don't know where Arlington is located on a map say, it wouldn't have been even close to Safe D if Bernie were the nominee. 

Currently the margin would be Biden +16.  I expect it to be around Biden +11 on Election Day.

Oh I believe Bernie would have won Virginia now. But I remember many people had all of Nova except Arlington and Alexandria voting overwhelmingly for Trump if Bernie had been the nominee. lol...

Definitely not the case.  I think Bernie would have won the three big counties but at much smaller margins than Biden.  Biden is going to absolutely obliterate trump in NoVa.  I would not be surprised if he gets close to 70% in the combined Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun region. 
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Fusternino
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« Reply #34 on: July 30, 2020, 01:58:40 AM »
Quote from: 334 Freiwal on July 29, 2020, 05:14:53 PM
Quote from: Fusternino on July 29, 2020, 05:05:20 PM
The margin will be 2-3 points to the left of the national vote. So, Likely/Safe D in this environment.

VA still has a lot of religious people and gun owners . . . in an even environment, it's very much in play.

2000: +8.55% R
2004: +5.74% R
2008: +0.96% R
2012: even
2016: +3.23% D

The DMV metro continues to boom. The same trends that turned DE and NJ reliably D are happening in VA. I don't expect it to be competitive at all past 2024.

Studies have shown that was by how much (~2-3) that Kaine increased Clinton's margin by. There also could've been backlash to the gun bill. But it doesn't matter because we're in a Biden +8-10 national environment.
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Xing
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« Reply #35 on: July 30, 2020, 02:01:32 AM »
Safe D (sane).
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #36 on: July 30, 2020, 02:13:38 AM »
Quote from: Fusternino on July 30, 2020, 01:58:40 AM
Quote from: 334 Freiwal on July 29, 2020, 05:14:53 PM
Quote from: Fusternino on July 29, 2020, 05:05:20 PM
The margin will be 2-3 points to the left of the national vote. So, Likely/Safe D in this environment.

VA still has a lot of religious people and gun owners . . . in an even environment, it's very much in play.


2000: +8.55% R
2004: +5.74% R
2008: +0.96% R
2012: even
2016: +3.23% D

The DMV metro continues to boom. The same trends that turned DE and NJ reliably D are happening in VA. I don't expect it to be competitive at all past 2024.

Studies have shown that was by how much (~2-3) that Kaine increased Clinton's margin by. There also could've been backlash to the gun bill. But it doesn't matter because we're in a Biden +8-10 national environment.

Which studies
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #37 on: July 30, 2020, 03:14:30 AM »
Kaine was probably the worst VP pick since Sarah Palin.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #38 on: July 31, 2020, 10:10:47 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on July 30, 2020, 03:14:30 AM
Kaine was probably the worst VP pick since Sarah Palin.

Well there were only two between Palin and Kaine... but I’d say Kaine was better than Ryan anyway
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #39 on: July 31, 2020, 05:43:32 PM »
Biden +9
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big data boi
demosboccaccio
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« Reply #40 on: August 01, 2020, 01:02:37 AM »
Likely Biden

54% - 43%

Biden +11%
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #41 on: August 01, 2020, 09:29:00 AM »
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #42 on: November 12, 2020, 05:07:39 PM »

LOL
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #43 on: November 12, 2020, 07:39:55 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 28, 2020, 07:06:19 PM
Safe D. Biden wins between 9 and 12 points.

I'm glad I kept this one vague. I was actually right with a margin prediction from this election, other than guessing that Biden would win NE-2 by six-I nailed that one!
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