Morning Consult: Biden +7 in AZ, +13 in CO, +1 in GA, +10 in MI, tied in NC
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  Morning Consult: Biden +7 in AZ, +13 in CO, +1 in GA, +10 in MI, tied in NC		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Morning Consult: Biden +7 in AZ, +13 in CO, +1 in GA, +10 in MI, tied in NC  (Read 3078 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« on: July 27, 2020, 11:16:02 PM »
« edited: July 28, 2020, 02:12:00 PM by Make PA Blue Again! »
Hot off the press, midnight poll release.

EDIT: Scroll down to see more polls
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WD
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2020, 11:17:59 PM »
Lol @ Tillis
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soundchaser
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2020, 11:19:28 PM »
McSally and Tillis at 36 and 37 respectively? Oof.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2020, 11:22:38 PM »
Some more polls:
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soundchaser
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2020, 11:24:09 PM »
That Texas swing is *wild.* And continues to show that Biden’s got a decent shot at winning it. (Also wild.)
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Horus
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2020, 11:25:52 PM »
Minnesota is tightening, Biden really needs to get some ads going there.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2020, 11:28:04 PM »
So, MN is either just lean-D in a few new polls or heavily-D in a FOX or Gravis poll.

Better to average all 4 (= Biden+10).
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2020, 11:28:57 PM »
Quote from: Horus on July 27, 2020, 11:25:52 PM
Minnesota is tightening, Biden really needs to get some ads going there.
Literally every other poll shows Biden gaining on Trump by up to 16 points, and you focus on the one state that shifted to Trump within the MoE. Not only does the recent Fox poll show Minnesota safe in Biden's column, but even Trafalgar couldn't manage to make it look especially competitive. It's called an outlier.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2020, 11:34:30 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2020, 02:11:12 PM by Make PA Blue Again! »
Quote from: soundchaser on July 27, 2020, 11:24:09 PM
That Texas swing is *wild.* And continues to show that Biden’s got a decent shot at winning it. (Also wild.)

Yep, we also need to remember that Beto lead in only *1* poll the entire 2018 cycle and people thought he had a real shot, which he did.

Biden, on the other hand, has led in 7, and he hasn't even taken any steps to seriously contest it.

There is a very real possibility that Texas turns blue this year and people haven't quite come to terms with that, yet.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2020, 11:36:18 PM »
Nothing like a midnight SHOCK POLL release. Beautiful numbers in Texas!
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2020, 12:30:26 AM »
TURN OUT THE LIGHTS. THE PARTY’S OVER.
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Pyro
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2020, 12:31:05 AM »
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2020, 12:43:33 AM »
Can someone kindly ask them to add Iowa to their poll next time. Should be cheap and has an important Senate race.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2020, 12:47:46 AM »
Wow! Great numbers, from the heartland and sunbelt alike! Big thanks to Easley, Yokel, and the rest of the gang for putting these beauties together.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2020, 12:53:03 AM »
Quote from: The Ex-Factor on July 28, 2020, 12:43:33 AM
Can someone kindly ask them to add Iowa to their poll next time. Should be cheap and has an important Senate race.
[/quote
Complete agree.Va is pointless to poll but the “low number” is interesting
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2020, 12:55:32 AM »
Texas to the left of North Carolina feels wrong.

Expected Minnesota and Florida to be higher.

Michigan is Solid D at this point.

Overall great for Biden.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2020, 12:59:37 AM »
If TX flips, we are looking at a 400+ EV map, most likely, which is not something I ever expected to see in my lifetime.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2020, 01:14:09 AM »
If Biden comes close in TX and wins, I dont see how Cornyn, whom needs to be retired,  by Hegar, holds on.

Ds are making endroads in TX since we are putting more Congressional districts in play and state House. TX isnt the state it was in 2004 and neither is OH, IA, AZ and FL
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2020, 01:24:58 AM »
Minnesota isn't going to be to the right of Arizona and Florida.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2020, 05:09:26 AM »
Some of these results are weird, especially how Trump-y the May 26 #s are, despite the fact that Trump was easily bungling the response by then. Minnesota seems like an outlier, but I guess the *current* #s all seem about where you'd expect them to be, besides MN and NC. Kinda shocked VA isn't even higher, too
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: July 28, 2020, 05:14:00 AM »
Glad to see they actually pushed people and we aren't seeing huge undecided results.

Here are the full results:

Arizona: Biden 49 - Trump 42
Colorado: Biden 52 - Trump 39
Florid: Biden 49 - Trump 46
Georgia: Biden 47 - Trump 46
Michigan: Biden 52 - Trump 42
Minnesota: Biden 47 - Trump 44
North Carolina: Biden 47 - Trump 47
Ohio: Trump 48 - Biden 45
Pennsylvania: Biden 50 - Trump 42
Texas: Biden 47 - Trump 45
Virginia: Biden 52 - Trump 41
Wisconsin: Biden 50 - Trump 43
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: July 28, 2020, 05:17:15 AM »
It looks like this tracker will be updated everyday, too
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #22 on: July 28, 2020, 05:34:32 AM »
Interesting that MN got "Trumpier", but of course a MoE of 3.8 in MN means it could be anything from Trump+5 to Biden+11. Small sample size.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2020, 05:54:40 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 28, 2020, 05:09:26 AM
Some of these results are weird, especially how Trump-y the May 26 #s are, despite the fact that Trump was easily bungling the response by then. Minnesota seems like an outlier, but I guess the *current* #s all seem about where you'd expect them to be, besides MN and NC. Kinda shocked VA isn't even higher, too

Remember that May 26 was after many of these states had had few cases and were triumphantly reopening. This was the era of “Where does DeSantis go to get his apology?”
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: July 28, 2020, 06:05:04 AM »
Quote from: mathstatman on July 28, 2020, 05:34:32 AM
Interesting that MN got "Trumpier", but of course a MoE of 3.8 in MN means it could be anything from Trump+5 to Biden+11. Small sample size.

MN isnt voting for Trump, Amy Klobuchar is gonna campaign hard for Biden in the Fall, her and Biden served on Judicial committee together.

As WI falls to waiseside conservatives think that MN is gonna vote R and has the longest streak of voting D along with RI and hasnt voted R since 1972 with Nixon ran against McGovern
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