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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  More likely to lose? Cunningham or Brindisi?
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Poll
Question: Who is more likely to lose their seat this year?
#1
Joe Cunningham
 
#2
Anthony Brindisi
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 46

Author Topic: More likely to lose? Cunningham or Brindisi?  (Read 461 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: July 27, 2020, 03:53:35 pm »

Who is more likely to lose their house seat this year? Joe Cunningham or Anthony Brindisi?
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It's Kamala!
Patrick97
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2020, 04:31:08 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2020, 06:04:03 pm by Buckhead Kelly »

Brindisi, a lot of my family lives in Cunningham district. Cunnigham has a lot of things going his ways starting with a decent minority population while NY-22 is a very white and rural district.

There is also the fact that places like Daniel Island, James Island, West Ashley, and Mount pleasant are trending Democrat. New York 22nd is clearly trending Republican and the reason it flipped is likely for starters Claudia Tenney is batsh-t crazy and Brindisi was a good candidate.
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Lucas Whitefur
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2020, 04:38:21 pm »

Brindisi.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2020, 07:24:50 pm »

Harrison is close enough in SC to pull Joe Cunningham thru
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2020, 09:22:06 pm »

Brindisi. Honestly, he’s very lucky that Tenney will be his opponent again.
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#Joemala2020
RFKFan68
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2020, 09:58:56 pm »

Brindisi.

Cunningham’s vote margin out of Charleston is going to seal the deal.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2020, 02:23:12 pm »

Brindisi. Cunningham will almost certainly win reelection if both Joe Biden and Jaime Harrison come within single digits in South Carolina this year, which I think is a strong possibility at this point. Moreover, Charleston is becoming more Democratic, and that will be of aid to him as well.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2020, 04:26:12 pm »

I think it's Cunningham. Neither will lose IMO, but he has a much more credible challenger. Claudia Tenney is awful and will continue to be awful for the foreseeable future. Yes, the demographic trends favor Cunningham and hurt Brindisi. I still think both are very likely to win anyway.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2020, 12:46:52 pm »

Brandisi and it's not even close. Obama didn't even win this district in 2008 when it was more democratic. Now it's trending massively R and so I find it hard to see Biden winning this district. Honestly, I would triage this one. District will be merged with nY_24(and I think Katko will lose.) NY dems can dismantle Tenney's district by leaving her with only Oneida and mash it with Onondaga and another county from nY_24.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2020, 01:52:39 pm »

Besides, Tenney is weaker then Katko. Given that this will be a blue wave year and 2022 will be tough dems, I'd rather go against the weak candidate.
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NYDem
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2020, 02:08:52 pm »
« Edited: August 01, 2020, 04:52:32 pm by NYDem »

Now it's trending massively R and so I find it hard to see Biden winning this district. Honestly, I would triage this one.

Insanity. Triage a Democratic incumbent in a year which is just as Democratic (it not more!) than the one he was elected in? He has an over 4:1 cash advantage and is running against the same flawed candidate he beat in 2018. This race is no worse than a tossup at this point.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2020, 07:07:08 pm »

Brindisi, although both of them are favored atm.

I don't think it's fair to Joe Cunningham to group him with Horn/Brindisi/Rose/Torres-Small. Cunningham's district is moving left faster than any of the districts of the latter four.
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