Rate FL-26

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1289182887825219585
Cook Political is calling this race a toss up.

[Mr.Phips]

Tilt D.  I have a very hard time seeing Murcasel-Powell actually lose here when Trump will likely lose this district by 20 points.  Not that many people are going to split their ticket to vote against an incumbent absent a scandal.

[WD]

Lean D, at worse. Once again the pundits are comically bad at their jobs. A D+6, Clinton+16 district isn’t flipping, no matter how good a candidate Giménez is. Will it be a close race? Of course. But DMP should win by about 4-5.

[VAR]

I voted tossup. Here’s an overview of this race:

Recent results:
Clinton +16
Rubio +1
Nelson +8
Gillum +7

This Republican internal shows Gimenez leading 47-42. 76% of voters recognize him, and 51% of voters view him favorably. DMP is recognized by 49% of voters, and her approval is +9. The poll was conducted by Meeting Street Insights. This polling firm had Biden and Trump tied in NC in May, so not super biased.

Cash on hand: DMP $2.8M, Gimenez $860k
$ raised in Q2: DMP $837k, Gimenez $617k

[Xing]

Voted Likely D, just like in OP’s previous thread for this race. Btw, OP, where are the threads for AK-AL, AR-02, GA-06, NY-02, and OH-10?

Either way, even if Gimenez is a “strong candidate”, he’s not going to overperform Trump by over 15 (or maybe 20) points against an incumbent who isn’t unpopular or scandal-prone.

[ON Progressive]

Lean D. Definitely worried about this one with the data from recent years showing a hard Cuban R trend, although there seems to be enough of a D swing from non-Cuban Hispanic and white voters that should keep this district in D hands in this environment.

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt R.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tilt D

[DaWN]

Voted Likely D, just like in OP’s previous thread for this race. Btw, OP, where are the threads for AK-AL, AR-02, GA-06, NY-02, and OH-10?

Either way, even if Gimenez is a “strong candidate”, he’s not going to overperform Trump by over 15 (or maybe 20) points against an incumbent who isn’t unpopular or scandal-prone.

Notwithstanding the incompetence of the Democratic Party, pretty much this

[Woody]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article244470907.html

A poll commissioned by a Republican Super PAC shows Republican Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez leading incumbent Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the race for Florida’s 26th congressional district — and, according to the poll, the mayor-turned-challenger has better name recognition than the congresswoman.

Gimenez leads Mucarsel-Powell by double digits among Hispanic voters, 52% to 33%, and 61% to 24% among Cuban voters.

Twenty-five percent of voters view Gimenez unfavorably, according to the poll.

The poll indicated that Mucarsel-Powell is less known to voters in the district, with 49% of those polled having an opinion on her while 51% said they don’t know her. Mucarsel-Powell has a positive favorablity rating, with 29% viewing her favorably and 20% viewing her unfavorably.

[kph14]

It's an internal and the lead can be explained with name recognition. Gimenez certainly will get around 47-48%.

Lean D

[LimoLiberal]

Tilt D, I think it’s likely Biden does worse than Hillary in this district.