1988: Bentsen the Democratic nominee

[Roll Roons]

It's safe to say he would be stronger than Dukakis, but can he win? Who does he pick as VP?

Note that Bentsen had previously defeated HW in the 1970 Senate race.

[darklordoftech]

Senator Lloyd Bentsen/Representative Dick Gephardt
Vice President George Bush/Senator Dan Quayle

[Alben Barkley]

Bentsen was the only candidate on either ticket in 1988 who finished the campaign with a higher approval rating than he started with. I definitely think he could have won. He would not have been nearly as easy to make out to be too liberal as Dukakis was, and Texas ain’t no Massachusetts. He would have been a formidable candidate, who would not have made dumb mistakes like the tank and would have likely hit back at any Atwater attacks more effectively.

He might well have chosen Gore as his VP, who provided youth and doubled down on the Southern moderate strategy like Clinton would four years later. Could have chosen John Glenn or even Dukakis himself too, if he wanted to balance the ticket with a Northerner. That would have been interesting if the ticket was reversed.

Let’s say it was Bentsen/Gore. Let’s say Bentsen runs an effective campaign that both absorbs Bush’s attacks well and counter-attacks successfully by pushing hard on Iran-Contra, the farm crisis, and the other less popular parts of Reagan’s record, as well as exploiting Bush’s own lukewarm personal popularity. If that is all true, I think he can win decisively, with a map conceivably as good as something like this:

[President Johnson]

Bentsen was a much better candidate, as already mentioned. I think he would have won by a decent margin. The Democrats should have nominated a Southerner in 1988, since they needed to win states in the region as other parts of the country were less reliable Democratic than today. Southerners were able to take some of these states, while most Northerners struggled. Lloyd Bentsen, Sam Nunn, Al Gore or Lawton Chiles could have defeated Poppy. Mario Cuomo is the only Northerner I think may have as well, since he was charismatic.

I'm unsure how Texas would have gone. I think it would have been close.

✓ Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)/Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 339 EV. (51.69%)
Vice President George Herbert Walker Bush (R-TX)/Senator J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 199 EV. (46.13%)

[Alcibiades]

The 1988 election was the Democrats’ to lose. Dukakis had something like a 15 point lead a few months out from the election, and only lost due to his inability to respond to attacks and reputation as a “Massachusetts liberal” who was soft on crime. The only way Bush was able to win in 88 was to run a negative campaign with racial crime dog whistles, but this would not have worked against Bentsen. Added to this, Bentsen was quite an impressive candidate as shown by his VP debate performance. He would have picked a younger non-Southerner as a running mate - maybe Dick Gephardt (Missouri was more politically Midwestern back then). Overall, a comfortable Bentsen victory.

Bentsen/Gephardt: 395 EV (52%)
Bush/Quayle: 143 EV (47%)

[Chips]

This would be a close election. Still choosing map.

[Sir Mohamed]

Bentsen would most likely have won, but by a relatively narrow margin.

✓ Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)/Senator Bob Kerrey (D-NE): 304 EVs.; 50.2%
Vice President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator Dan "Potatoe" Quayle (R-IN): 234 EVs.; 48.0%

[Left Wing]

Bentsen would most likely have won, but by a relatively narrow margin.

✓ Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)/Senator Bob Kerrey (D-NE): 304 EVs.; 50.2%
Vice President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator Dan "Potatoe" Quayle (R-IN): 234 EVs.; 48.0%

Kerrey was not a senator yet

[Chips]

Lyoid Bentsen/Running Mate: 279 electoral votes and 50% of the popular vote
George H.W Bush/Dan Quayle: 259 electoral votes and 49% of the popular vote

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Bentsen would have narrowly won and would have carried Texas.