CBS: Biden +6% in MI; Trump +1% in OH
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  CBS: Biden +6% in MI; Trump +1% in OH		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: CBS: Biden +6% in MI; Trump +1% in OH  (Read 1987 times)
JRP1994
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« on: July 26, 2020, 09:00:12 AM »
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2020, 09:16:46 AM »
Trump had the Ohio airwaves to himself for the last months, and THIS is the best he can do?
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Roblox
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« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2020, 09:34:56 AM »
Is this just the MRP?
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roxas11
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« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2020, 10:52:59 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on July 26, 2020, 09:16:46 AM
Trump had the Ohio airwaves to himself for the last months, and THIS is the best he can do?

Be careful about underestimating Trump in Ohio
This is what the polls in Ohio looked like in 2016

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html

As you can see the polls were off by a lot and they simply did not see his big win in that state coming
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Granite City
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« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2020, 11:50:27 AM »
These don't appear to weight by education? Would the White Evangelical weighting help to curb that be too much of a problem?
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2020, 12:34:41 PM »
Finally an Ohio poll
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2020, 01:04:58 PM »
Not good when Trump is leading by 1
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2020, 01:10:18 PM »
I'm sure the undecideds will break for Trump again after the debates and by Nov.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2020, 01:14:10 PM »
Quote from: Deputy Speaker Spark on July 26, 2020, 01:10:18 PM
I'm sure the undecideds will break for Trump again after the debates and by Nov.

Lol, OH has 20% African American in the state in Youngstown and Cincinnati,  they are more energetic about 2020 than 2016. The same amount as in NE VA and Richmond.  That's why OH is winnable
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2020, 01:22:30 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on July 26, 2020, 01:14:10 PM
Quote from: Deputy Speaker Spark on July 26, 2020, 01:10:18 PM
I'm sure the undecideds will break for Trump again after the debates and by Nov.

Lol, OH has 20% African American in the state in Youngstown and Cincinnati,  they are more energetic about 2020 than 2016. The same amount as in NE VA and Richmond.  That's why OH is winnable

I know. OH is still a tall order for Biden though. He needs to win over Northern OH and spike AA turnout in the cities to have a chance.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2020, 01:50:00 PM »

lol imagine thinking trump leading by 1 in ohio is bad news for biden
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2020, 01:50:36 PM »
Quote from: Deputy Speaker Spark on July 26, 2020, 01:10:18 PM
I'm sure the undecideds will break for Trump again after the debates and by Nov.

In Ohio or overall, Spark?
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2020, 01:56:26 PM »
Quote from: Deputy Speaker Spark on July 26, 2020, 01:10:18 PM
I'm sure the undecideds will break for Trump again after the debates and by Nov.
Yes, the same Trump that lost all 3 debates against Hillary lol? Biden will mop the floor with Trump.

You're deluded if you think Trump will win any debate against Biden.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2020, 02:03:01 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on July 26, 2020, 01:50:36 PM
Quote from: Deputy Speaker Spark on July 26, 2020, 01:10:18 PM
I'm sure the undecideds will break for Trump again after the debates and by Nov.

In Ohio or overall, Spark?

Overall
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2020, 03:05:04 PM »
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 26, 2020, 01:50:00 PM

lol imagine thinking trump leading by 1 in ohio is bad news for biden
It's a mixed bad to be honest. Trump is down nationally in the same poll by 10 points, and up in Ohio by 1, so if the National popular vote tightens to a slimmer margin (4-7) Trump will be in good shape in Ohio. However, the downside is if Biden goes into November with a national polling lead this large Ohio is a tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2020, 04:20:54 PM »
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on July 26, 2020, 03:05:04 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 26, 2020, 01:50:00 PM

lol imagine thinking trump leading by 1 in ohio is bad news for biden
It's a mixed bad to be honest. Trump is down nationally in the same poll by 10 points, and up in Ohio by 1, so if the National popular vote tightens to a slimmer margin (4-7) Trump will be in good shape in Ohio. However, the downside is if Biden goes into November with a national polling lead this large Ohio is a tossup.

Rs tend to underestimate that OH has 20% AA in Youngstown,  NE OH and Cincinnati,  the same percentage as Richmond and Fairfax VA. Since Kasich is endorsing Biden, when Portman was running against Strickland in 2016, OH is going to Biden. OH, IA voted D in 1992, 96, 2000, 2008-12.

Before Strickland said Scalia's death was good for America, he and Hilary were up in QU polls, by 7 pts over Portman and Trump
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2020, 05:01:11 PM »
Quote from: roxas11 on July 26, 2020, 10:52:59 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on July 26, 2020, 09:16:46 AM
Trump had the Ohio airwaves to himself for the last months, and THIS is the best he can do?

Be careful about underestimating Trump in Ohio
This is what the polls in Ohio looked like in 2016

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html

As you can see the polls were off by a lot and they simply did not see his big win in that state coming

I'm pretty sure polls can't see anything, since they're not living.
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Hammy
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« Reply #17 on: July 26, 2020, 05:18:00 PM »
Quote from: Granite City on July 26, 2020, 11:50:27 AM
These don't appear to weight by education? Would the White Evangelical weighting help to curb that be too much of a problem?

Toss them then, this is part of why they were off in 2016.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2020, 05:19:27 PM »
New Poll: Michigan President by YouGov on 2020-07-24

Summary: D: 48%, R: 42%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #19 on: July 26, 2020, 05:19:34 PM »
New Poll: Ohio President by YouGov on 2020-07-24

Summary: D: 45%, R: 46%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: July 26, 2020, 06:31:06 PM »
That Michigan number could be better, but is still mostly in line with other polls. Trump only being up by one point in ohio though, while the Biden campaign hasn't invested in it, is pretty damn bad for him though.
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2020, 07:46:07 PM »
Biden +6 in MI and Trump +1 in OH? I believe it
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2020, 12:15:18 AM »
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on July 26, 2020, 03:05:04 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 26, 2020, 01:50:00 PM

lol imagine thinking trump leading by 1 in ohio is bad news for biden
It's a mixed bad to be honest. Trump is down nationally in the same poll by 10 points, and up in Ohio by 1, so if the National popular vote tightens to a slimmer margin (4-7) Trump will be in good shape in Ohio. However, the downside is if Biden goes into November with a national polling lead this large Ohio is a tossup.

Holy f#ck guy, im not talking about who wins Ohio lmao, all im saying is that trump leading by 1 in Ohio is bad news for his reelection
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: July 27, 2020, 12:29:02 AM »
Looks like Ohio is still a junk state.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #24 on: July 27, 2020, 03:20:35 AM »
This slots rather neatly into Biden +9 nationally on UNS, so bang on average.
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