AZ-NBC/Marist: Kelly (D) up 12
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  AZ-NBC/Marist: Kelly (D) up 12
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Author Topic: AZ-NBC/Marist: Kelly (D) up 12  (Read 917 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 26, 2020, 08:03:35 AM »

Biden up 5.

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2020, 08:29:49 AM »

Biden up 5.



Yet another poll showing Kelly up by a substantial margin over McSally. Democrats really did hit the jackpot by having him as their candidate in Arizona.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2020, 08:48:58 AM »

It's strange that while the presidential numbers in this and the CNN poll are the same, when it comes to the senate race it's like two totally different races.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2020, 09:34:41 AM »

Too bad, McCain is gone, Rs cant hold onto AZ
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2020, 09:49:39 AM »

It's strange that while the presidential numbers in this and the CNN poll are the same, when it comes to the senate race it's like two totally different races.

We see this kind of discrepancy a lot in MI-PRES/MI-SEN polls as well. PPP had both Trump and James losing by 7 last month, whereas other pollsters show Peters way outperforming Biden.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2020, 10:46:12 AM »

Looking at some of the crosstabs (including that more Republicans took part in the poll), this doesn't look good for Trump at all. If he's losing Arizona by 5 even if it's in the margin of error, then McConnell seriously better be thinking of pursuing the Bob Dole strategy. ("Hey, we know you don't like Trump, and that's ok. Feel free to vote for Biden but you should vote for us to keep power in the Senate so that Biden doesn't have free reign over the government. Vote for us to be a check on Biden.") Granted, we don't know how well that'll work with an incumbent, but at this point, they really need to start to thinking of other strategies than just appealing to Trump.
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Person Man
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2020, 11:08:47 AM »

Looking at some of the crosstabs (including that more Republicans took part in the poll), this doesn't look good for Trump at all. If he's losing Arizona by 5 even if it's in the margin of error, then McConnell seriously better be thinking of pursuing the Bob Dole strategy. ("Hey, we know you don't like Trump, and that's ok. Feel free to vote for Biden but you should vote for us to keep power in the Senate so that Biden doesn't have free reign over the government. Vote for us to be a check on Biden.") Granted, we don't know how well that'll work with an incumbent, but at this point, they really need to start to thinking of other strategies than just appealing to Trump.

That actually worked perfectly in 2016. The Dems lost the tipping point senate seat by like 2% but lost the presidency by like 1. If it wasnít for the Halloween surprise, I could see a window for a R congress but D president though even if Hillary won and it was close, it wouldnít have been certain. I would also say that if Trump comes within 4-5 points of Biden by Labor Day, I would hope Schumer decides on that strategy too.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2020, 03:29:06 PM »

Honestly, this race is Likely Democratic at least. I was long cautious, but Kelly is maintained a healthy lead over months and raising absurd amounts of money from small donors.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2020, 05:27:21 PM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Marist College on 2020-07-22

Summary: D: 53%, R: 41%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lincoln General Court Member NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2020, 02:44:29 AM »

I've seen enough. I'm moving this one to Safe D.

Trump would literally have to carry Arizona by at least 3-5 points to push McSally over the line.
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jdk
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« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2020, 05:12:07 AM »

Looking at some of the crosstabs (including that more Republicans took part in the poll), this doesn't look good for Trump at all. If he's losing Arizona by 5 even if it's in the margin of error, then McConnell seriously better be thinking of pursuing the Bob Dole strategy. ("Hey, we know you don't like Trump, and that's ok. Feel free to vote for Biden but you should vote for us to keep power in the Senate so that Biden doesn't have free reign over the government. Vote for us to be a check on Biden.") Granted, we don't know how well that'll work with an incumbent, but at this point, they really need to start to thinking of other strategies than just appealing to Trump.

The problem with that is the base is so loyal to Trump at this point that if the GOP ends up throwing him under the bus to salvage the senate and other downballot races, it's likely that a significant portion will get mad and refuse to vote for any Republicans downballot.
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