IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2%

[MT Treasurer]

Chuck Grassley says hello.

(I'm not disputing that Ernst is in trouble.  I just think the notion that Iowa likes their candidates to be a maverick is not remotely true.)

Yeah, I have no idea why someone would perceive Grassley as less "out of touch" with his constituents than Ernst, especially in a "populist" state like Iowa. What could it possibly be?

[Xing]

I remain skeptical of IA polling, but Ernst definitely isn’t safe if the environment doesn’t get better for Republicans. Still Lean R for now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I remain skeptical of IA polling, but Ernst definitely isn’t safe if the environment doesn’t get better for Republicans. Still Lean R for now.

Biden is up 11 in natl polls, Tom Harkin was in this seat for a long time. Ernst won in 2014 because she ran with Kim Reynolds.  Kim Reynolds isnt popular anymore since she signed an abortion ban. That's why she won by only 3 in 2018 and if she runs again in 2022, JD Scholten if he loses in 2020 will be back to challenging her.

In addition our 3 Congressional races, except for IA 4, Dems are leading in.

[wbrocks67]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not only that Seltzer had Greenfield up and it's the most accurate pollster

[Xing]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

No it wont, 3 IA districts are Democratic and the Selzer poll shows Dems leading in all three just not IA 4, Ernst  will lose

[wbrocks67]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

This poll is literally showing the same margin (1% less actually) than the Selzer poll showed, and that's nonpartisan. Even if you shaved 2-3 points off, it's a tie. So again, not sure how anyone could say this is anything but a tossup right now.

[Xing]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

This poll is literally showing the same margin (1% less actually) than the Selzer poll showed, and that's nonpartisan. Even if you shaved 2-3 points off, it's a tie. So again, not sure how anyone could say this is anything but a tossup right now.

Selzer also had Hubbell winning by 2, so even though they’re generally a good pollster, they can be off a bit as well. I definitely don’t deny that this race is competitive, I simply think that undecideds are probably more likely than not to break for Ernst, thus I’d say she’s a bit favored. If things don’t get better for Republicans or get even worse, then obviously she could lose.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

This poll is literally showing the same margin (1% less actually) than the Selzer poll showed, and that's nonpartisan. Even if you shaved 2-3 points off, it's a tie. So again, not sure how anyone could say this is anything but a tossup right now.

I don’t know why you keep on getting worked up over people saying that they are skeptical of polls in Iowa overestimating Democrats. People are free to think what they want to about a given race bro

[indietraveler]

I remain skeptical of IA polling, but Ernst definitely isn’t safe if the environment doesn’t get better for Republicans. Still Lean R for now.

Biden is up 11 in natl polls, Tom Harkin was in this seat for a long time. Ernst won in 2014 because she ran with Kim Reynolds.  Kim Reynolds isnt popular anymore since she signed an abortion ban. That's why she won by only 3 in 2018 and if she runs again in 2022, JD Scholten if he loses in 2020 will be back to challenging her.

In addition our 3 Congressional races, except for IA 4, Dems are leading in.

Kim Reynolds wasn't running in 2014...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I remain skeptical of IA polling, but Ernst definitely isn’t safe if the environment doesn’t get better for Republicans. Still Lean R for now.

Biden is up 11 in natl polls, Tom Harkin was in this seat for a long time. Ernst won in 2014 because she ran with Kim Reynolds.  Kim Reynolds isnt popular anymore since she signed an abortion ban. That's why she won by only 3 in 2018 and if she runs again in 2022, JD Scholten if he loses in 2020 will be back to challenging her.

In addition our 3 Congressional races, except for IA 4, Dems are leading in.

Kim Reynolds wasn't running in 2014...

She ran with Terry Bradstad as LT Gov

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Iowa_gubernatorial_election

Terry Bradstaf Gov
Kim Reynolds LT Gov

Joni Ernst Rep Senate nominee
Bruce Braley Dem Senate nominee 2014


Yes Joni Ernst ran with Kim Reynolds as Terry Bradstad running mate, okayyyyu

[wbrocks67]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

This poll is literally showing the same margin (1% less actually) than the Selzer poll showed, and that's nonpartisan. Even if you shaved 2-3 points off, it's a tie. So again, not sure how anyone could say this is anything but a tossup right now.

I don’t know why you keep on getting worked up over people saying that they are skeptical of polls in Iowa overestimating Democrats. People are free to think what they want to about a given race bro

You don't just get to choose though to listen to polls when you want to and not when you don't. What I'm saying is the polls, and all the fundamentals (fundraising, etc.) show that this is literally tossup. I just don't understand why anyone would think otherwise.

[indietraveler]

I remain skeptical of IA polling, but Ernst definitely isn’t safe if the environment doesn’t get better for Republicans. Still Lean R for now.

Biden is up 11 in natl polls, Tom Harkin was in this seat for a long time. Ernst won in 2014 because she ran with Kim Reynolds.  Kim Reynolds isnt popular anymore since she signed an abortion ban. That's why she won by only 3 in 2018 and if she runs again in 2022, JD Scholten if he loses in 2020 will be back to challenging her.

In addition our 3 Congressional races, except for IA 4, Dems are leading in.

Kim Reynolds wasn't running in 2014...

She ran with Terry Bradstad as LT Gov

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Iowa_gubernatorial_election

Terry Bradstaf Gov
Kim Reynolds LT Gov

Joni Ernst Rep Senate nominee
Bruce Braley Dem Senate nominee 2014


Yes Joni Ernst ran with Kim Reynolds as Terry Bradstad running mate, okayyyyu

Yes, but the fact that you think that's why you think she won okaaaayyyyy.

[MT Treasurer]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

This poll is literally showing the same margin (1% less actually) than the Selzer poll showed, and that's nonpartisan. Even if you shaved 2-3 points off, it's a tie. So again, not sure how anyone could say this is anything but a tossup right now.

I don’t know why you keep on getting worked up over people saying that they are skeptical of polls in Iowa overestimating Democrats. People are free to think what they want to about a given race bro

You don't just get to choose though to listen to polls when you want to and not when you don't. What I'm saying is the polls, and all the fundamentals (fundraising, etc.) show that this is literally tossup. I just don't understand why anyone would think otherwise.

None of this actually addresses his question as to why you seem to be so emotionally invested in other people's posts.

Also, uh, Democrats are doing well in fundraising pretty much everywhere, even in races which are quite obviously not Tossups.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are invested in: AK, AZ, CO, GA, IL, IA, KY, KS, ME, MI, MN, MT, NH, NJ, NM, NC, SC, TX.and VA

Grassley is so ashamed of Trump, he wont even show up at RNC convention, that's how much trouble Ernst is in IA with an unpopular Trump, along with her on ballot. That why all our D incumbents are winning except in IA 4

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Other Source on 2020-07-28

Summary: D: 49%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[oraclebones]

1. I don’t trust polling in the state.
2. I’m not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, I’m leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

Why is Ernst a bad candidate? Her campaign in 2014 was one of the best of the cycle

What? In what way was Ernst's campaign one of the best of the cycle? Yes, it was a large shift in the voting margin, but that had more to do with Braley being an awful, elitist candidate (literally mocked Grassley for being a farmer) and it being a particularly bad year for Democrats. Ernst was basically an empty-suit candidate, but that year an empty suit was enough. (I was living in Iowa at that time, but no longer am, so I don't have a sense of her campaign now.)

[Hope For A New Era]

2. I’m not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.

...because she's a better fit for the state and has a weaker opponent?