Why I picked some state choices:
Nevada: Although Obama won NV comfortably in 2012, In 2014 Republicans EASILY won the Governors mansion again and they also won the popular vote in the House. If Obama and Romney ran under these conditions. Although it would've been much closer, Romney probably narrowly wins Nevada under these conditions.
Colorado: Although Democrats won the Governors race. Republicans won a high profile senate race and also carried the House popular vote. Romney again narrowly wins Colorado.
New Mexico: Under these conditions, New Mexico would be competitive. Democrats won the Senate and House popular vote by healthy margins but Republicans did win the Governors race. Obama wins New Mexico by 5% or so.
Iowa: 2014 was a very good year for Republicans in Iowa. They won the House popular vote, governors race and Senate race all relatively easily. Romney wins Iowa by 5-6%.
Wisconsin: Obama comfortably won Wisconsin in our real timeline but Republicans were able to win the House popular vote and win the Governors mansion in a high stakes environment. Coupled with Paul Ryan and Romney probably narrowly wins Wisconsin as well.
Michigan: Democrats won the House popular vote in Michigan in 2014 though Republicans won the Governors race. This one probably would've come down to Flint and since I think Obama did better than I think Romney would've done with handling the Flint crisis. Obama wins Michigan by 2-3%
Ohio: This would've received a lot of attention in this scenario like in the real election. Republicans won every major race in Ohio that year and won the popular vote in the House. Romney wins Ohio.
Pennsylvania: Although Republicans won the House popular vote, Democrats easily won the Governors mansion. Coupled with the fact that Obama won Pennsylvania by 5% in 2012 in our real timeline, Obama narrowly wins here.
New Hampshire: Democrats won the House popular vote and every major statewide office. Obama wins here probably by about the same margin he won by in the actual 2012 election.
Virginia: This was the toughest call for me. Republicans did a very good job at getting out their base to vote but still narrowly lost the Senate race. Republicans did win the House vote. I would imaging both sides would give everything they got to win the state but like in our election actual I think Obama just barely ekes out a win by under 1% but it would be the closest state of the election.
North Carolina: Republicans won the high profile Senate race and the House popular vote. Romney won North Carolina in 2012 so no reason to believe he doesn't win it here.
Florida: Republicans narrowly won a high profile Senate race and won the House popular vote. Nothing much to say here, Romney wins the state by about 2-3%.
Romney wins 284-254.
Closest states: Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin.
Romney wins the popular vote by 2%.
