Who's more likely to party switch?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both politicians are considered moderates, and frequently buck their own party. They hold values that are no longer the cornerstones of their respective parties at this point in time. Both generally supported their parties nominee in 2016, only to buck them later on, however neither has consistently voted against their own party. Who is more likely to do a party switch?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Murkowski. Manchin said he will not switch.

Manchin has said a lot of things that end up not being true for the better or worse. He's a politician who has to juggle many plates at once for political survival, so sometimes he says things that aren't true for political survival.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Murkowski is younger and under more primary pressure, whereas I think Manchin is happy to sail into the sunset in 2024 so party switching would do nothing for him.

I think if Murkowski does leave the Republican party though it will be to sit as an Independent.

Just curious, does Murkowski have to caucus with anyone? Could you have a senate where literally no party had a majority?