Who's more likely to party switch?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both politicians are considered moderates, and frequently buck their own party. They hold values that are no longer the cornerstones of their respective parties at this point in time. Both generally supported their parties nominee in 2016, only to buck them later on, however neither has consistently voted against their own party. Who is more likely to do a party switch?

[I’m not Stu]

Murkowski. Manchin said he will not switch.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Murkowski. Manchin said he will not switch.

Manchin has said a lot of things that end up not being true for the better or worse. He's a politician who has to juggle many plates at once for political survival, so sometimes he says things that aren't true for political survival.

[morgieb]

Murkowski is younger and under more primary pressure, whereas I think Manchin is happy to sail into the sunset in 2024 so party switching would do nothing for him.

I think if Murkowski does leave the Republican party though it will be to sit as an Independent.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Murkowski is younger and under more primary pressure, whereas I think Manchin is happy to sail into the sunset in 2024 so party switching would do nothing for him.

I think if Murkowski does leave the Republican party though it will be to sit as an Independent.

Just curious, does Murkowski have to caucus with anyone? Could you have a senate where literally no party had a majority?

[here2view]

If Manchin didn't switch before his 2018 election, I highly doubt he ever will.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems enshrine DC statehood,  in the constitution,  then Murkowski.  Manchin is likely to run for Gov and appoint his replacement in 2024.

Trump is getting stronger in the South, and MT, and KS and Warnock has slipped in the polls and Ossoff has Covid 19, a tied Senate and 278 EC map is most likely: CO, ME replace AL and Ds win 2 of 3 AZ, IA and NC.

McSally is within 4 of Kelly
Tillis is likeable still
Ernst, well, its IA

[KaiserDave]

Manchin is a tried and true Democrat.

Murkowski is similarly so and comes from a GOP dynasty, but I believe her ties to the party are much weaker than Joe's.

[brucejoel99]

Manchin is a Democrat through & through (albeit one at the federal level representing not just a red state, but West Virginia). He's only as all-in on Democratic policy as representing his state at the federal level allows him to be, but he's still very much all-in to the extent that he can be.

On the other hand, I don't think the same can be said for Murkowski anymore with regards to the GOP. She didn't have to save Obamacare. She doesn't have to be pro-LGBT or pro-choice. She didn't have to oppose Kavanaugh.

It's this kind of stuff that leads me to believe Murkowski leaving the GOP is infinitely more likely than Manchin leaving the Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone answering Manchin has no idea what they’re talking about.

[swf541]

Anyone answering Manchin has no idea what they’re talking about.

[😥]

Anyone answering Manchin has no idea what they’re talking about.

This

If Manchin wanted to change parties, he would definitely vote against impeachment

[Farmlands]

I don't think either will switch. It's just such a rare occurrence and I think Murkowski would rather stay the course, since she's already survived a defeat in a primary, than take a huge gamble which, outside the South, practically never works.

[SnowLabrador]

Neither will switch.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Murkowski is younger and under more primary pressure, whereas I think Manchin is happy to sail into the sunset in 2024 so party switching would do nothing for him.

I think if Murkowski does leave the Republican party though it will be to sit as an Independent.

Just curious, does Murkowski have to caucus with anyone? Could you have a senate where literally no party had a majority?

Senators are not required to caucus with a party. Dean Barkley during his two months in the Senate in 2002 did not caucus with Democrats nor with Republicans. So that scenario is theoretically possible.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

By the way, this is how I feel about this:

Lisa Murkowski has a 1 in [insert very large number] chance of party switching.
Joe Manchin has a 1 in [insert very large number squared] chance of party switching.

[Orser67]

Murkowski is younger and under more primary pressure, whereas I think Manchin is happy to sail into the sunset in 2024 so party switching would do nothing for him.

I think if Murkowski does leave the Republican party though it will be to sit as an Independent.

Just curious, does Murkowski have to caucus with anyone? Could you have a senate where literally no party had a majority?

Senators are not required to caucus with a party. Dean Barkley during his two months in the Senate in 2002 did not caucus with Democrats nor with Republicans. So that scenario is theoretically possible.

It is theoretically possible, but it's worth noting that it would deprive that senator of committee assignments. I could see a scenario where a senator is kind of a free agent at the start of each Congress, but it seems unlikely anyone would choose to caucus as an independent as anything other than a temporary solution.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Murkowski is younger and under more primary pressure, whereas I think Manchin is happy to sail into the sunset in 2024 so party switching would do nothing for him.

I think if Murkowski does leave the Republican party though it will be to sit as an Independent.

Just curious, does Murkowski have to caucus with anyone? Could you have a senate where literally no party had a majority?

Senators are not required to caucus with a party. Dean Barkley during his two months in the Senate in 2002 did not caucus with Democrats nor with Republicans. So that scenario is theoretically possible.

It is theoretically possible, but it's worth noting that it would deprive that senator of committee assignments. I could see a scenario where a senator is kind of a free agent at the start of each Congress, but it seems unlikely anyone would choose to caucus as an independent as anything other than a temporary solution.

Yes, I know that the Senator would be deprived of committee assignments.

[Not Me, Us]

Manchin has zero reason to switch parties. He's almost certainly going to retire in 2024, so he doesn't have any more elections to worry about. Not to mention that he generally votes with the Democrats when it truly matters, except for the Kavanaugh vote. If he was going to switch parties, he would have already. Why would he run as a Democrat in 2018, going through the most difficult race of his career, just to switch parties? No sane person would do that.

[I’m not Stu]

Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, but he wasn't the deciding vote. Susan Collins was. If Manchin voted no, Mike Pence would have been the deciding vote.

[The Ex-Factor]

Yeah Manchin's vote during Kavanaugh was so transparently political that I was surprised WV voters did not really punish him for that. But it's also why I never had a problem with it, cause I knew he was going to vote no to sink the nomination if it really came down to it.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah Manchin's vote during Kavanaugh was so transparently political that I was surprised WV voters did not really punish him for that. But it's also why I never had a problem with it, cause I knew he was going to vote no to sink the nomination if it really came down to it.

I mean, it is West Virginia...

[Mycool]

The candidate who won with no party support after losing their primary.

[PAK Man]

Murkowski, but if she does, it'll be to independent, not Democratic. Manchin's not going to switch parties.

[Suburbia]

Murkowski will switch, especially if there is a 50-50 Senate.

Manchin is done with federal politics.