Who were the Bush 2004 Obama 2008 voters?

[buritobr]

The US swang from a 2.5 R margin in 2004 to a 7.3 D margin in 2008.
Some differences can be explained by demographics. Since Bush had a big margin in the group of the old voters, there were more Bush voters who went to another dimension from 2004 to 2008 than Kerry voters. On the other hand, most of the first time voters in 2008 were Obama voters. Besides, since the black turnout was higher in 2008, there were some black voters who didn't vote in 2004 and voted for Obama in 2008.
But the demographic cannot explain all this difference. There were Bush 2004 Obama 2008 voters. Looking to polls and results, I believe that most of the Bush 2004 Obama 2008 voters were hispanics in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, whites in the midwest and whites in Virginia.

[libertpaulian]

The voters who would comprise the beginning of the suburban dealignment.

[Calthrina950]

The US swang from a 2.5 R margin in 2004 to a 7.3 D margin in 2008.
Some differences can be explained by demographics. Since Bush had a big margin in the group of the old voters, there were more Bush voters who went to another dimension from 2004 to 2008 than Kerry voters. On the other hand, most of the first time voters in 2008 were Obama voters. Besides, since the black turnout was higher in 2008, there were some black voters who didn't vote in 2004 and voted for Obama in 2008.
But the demographic cannot explain all this difference. There were Bush 2004 Obama 2008 voters. Looking to polls and results, I believe that most of the Bush 2004 Obama 2008 voters were hispanics in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, whites in the midwest and whites in Virginia.

I would agree, and expand upon this. Hispanic and Asian voters in California, along with a substantial number of moderate white voters in that state, probably also fit into the Bush-Obama category, and in Colorado, there were large numbers of independent and moderate white suburbanites who swung from Bush to Obama (and were the ones truly responsible for flipping the state). Obama also won over many black voters, including a considerable number of those who typically voted Republican (i.e. Collin Powell), on account of being the first black President, and he won over not insubstantial amounts of white voters in states like Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Maine as well.

[Arbitrage1980]

College educated suburban whites swung hard to Obama in 08. It explains Obama winning VA by a whopping 6.3% (first Dem to win the state since LBJ 64) and CO by 9.0%. He won "swing" states FL and OH by 2.8% and 4.5% respectively, as those states have a lower % of college educated whites. The white suburban realignment began during the Clinton presidency but accelerated during the Obama years.

[buritobr]

College educated suburban whites swung hard to Obama in 08. It explains Obama winning VA by a whopping 6.3% (first Dem to win the state since LBJ 64) and CO by 9.0%. He won "swing" states FL and OH by 2.8% and 4.5% respectively, as those states have a lower % of college educated whites. The white suburban realignment began during the Clinton presidency but accelerated during the Obama years.

Yes. Bush 2004 did very well in many wealthy white suburban counties located in blue states (not atlas color). It looks amazing according to our recent perception of politics, since Bush 2004 ran a much more social conservative than an economic conservative campaign.
There is aother thread about this topic

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

The only one I personally know is a suburban, college-educated Indian-American woman (half-white though).

[Arbitrage1980]

College educated suburban whites swung hard to Obama in 08. It explains Obama winning VA by a whopping 6.3% (first Dem to win the state since LBJ 64) and CO by 9.0%. He won "swing" states FL and OH by 2.8% and 4.5% respectively, as those states have a lower % of college educated whites. The white suburban realignment began during the Clinton presidency but accelerated during the Obama years.

Yes. Bush 2004 did very well in many wealthy white suburban counties located in blue states (not atlas color). It looks amazing according to our recent perception of politics, since Bush 2004 ran a much more social conservative than an economic conservative campaign.
There is aother thread about this topic

Bush won in 04 because of 9/11 and  national security. The social issues such as gay marriage actually helped him with black voters and may have won him Ohio and hence the election.

Bush 04 won the national popular vote by 2.5% but underperformed in the electoral college. He added IA and NM (won both by less than 1%) and lost NH. He improved in the South, Sun Belt and Northeast from his 2000 performance, but that did not translate into adding new states aside from the ones I mentioned. Bush was particularly not that strong with working class whites in the rust belt.

[Sumner 1868]

Bush was particularly not that strong with working class whites in the rust belt.

What makes this stand out even more in hindsight is that the Iraq War actually had either majority or plurality support in the states of Michigan (49%), Pennsylvania (49%), and Wisconsin (53%) on election day. Bush's economic views prevented him from having the solid rally-the-flag sweep he wanted.


https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

[Intell]

Bush was particularly not that strong with working class whites in the rust belt.

What makes this stand out even more in hindsight is that the Iraq War actually had either majority or plurality support in the states of Michigan (49%), Pennsylvania (49%), and Wisconsin (53%) on election day. Bush's economic views prevented him from having the solid rally-the-flag sweep he wanted.


https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

Yea bush only managed to gain in 2004 amongst southern/Appalachian  white voters, he didn’t gain amongst northern wwc voters which shows social conservatism isn’t high amongst that group. Bush’s strongest gains were also amongst latinos and no matter however many people tell me it’s about immigration reform I’m confident it’s about ssm

[Orser67]

He did better across the board, outperforming Kerry with the vast majority of demographic groups. I'm sure you could get granular enough to find some other exceptions, but the two big exceptions to that rule were Southern whites (who shifted towards Republicans in many areas) and seniors. Democratic gains were most concentrated among non-white voters (especially Hispanics) and younger voters, but higher income voters also shifted quite a bit. He also absolutely destroyed McCain with first-time voters.

[Smash255]

Both my parents.  They both voted for Gore in 2000, switched to Bush in 2004, primarily due to national security reasons (my dad was also a hold his nose voter in 04).   Prior to this they have pretty much split evenly between Republican and Democratic.

Both of them turned strongly against Bush shortly after the election, and have pretty much voted solidly Democratic since.

[Left Wing]

My grandparents turned against Bush because they felt he was giving them too many tax cuts and that they had more money than they needed.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

My grandparents turned against Bush because they felt he was giving them too many tax cuts and that they had more money than they needed.

Your grandparents are, as they say here, massive FF