FL-Quinnipiac: Biden+13

[South Dakota Democrat]

+13 is probably a big stretch, but FL has been polling VERY well for Biden, with more than a bunch of polls in the 6-8 range for him. I think we may be underestimating how badly Trump/DeSantis are screwing the virus up in places like this.

And this poll is underselling Bidens margins, considering most of the undecided/other vote comes from young people and black voters

No.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2020-07-20

Summary: D: 51%, R: 38%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[wbrocks67]

+13 is probably a big stretch, but FL has been polling VERY well for Biden, with more than a bunch of polls in the 6-8 range for him. I think we may be underestimating how badly Trump/DeSantis are screwing the virus up in places like this.

And this poll is underselling Bidens margins, considering most of the undecided/other vote comes from young people and black voters

No.

how is not? most of the undecided vote is among black voters (they have 10%+ undecided), and the 18-34 vote has "12% other" which also will likely not bear out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since, DeSantis and Ducey are now unpopular in AZ and FL, and Trump has canceled oovention in FL, and Covid 19 in TX, all 3 states as well as AK, KS, MT, and TX Senate seats can go D
 PR statehood, minimum wage, extending unemployment, and immigration reform are just as important to AA and Latinos in Sunbelt as the wall was to WC whites and getting Mexico to pay for it, in Sunbelt in 2016. On Obama's economy. He raised taxes and created surpluses. 2020 Trump Recession created deficits on a huge tax cut for rich like Bush W tax cuts did in 2008, after Clinton raised taxes

[South Dakota Democrat]

+13 is probably a big stretch, but FL has been polling VERY well for Biden, with more than a bunch of polls in the 6-8 range for him. I think we may be underestimating how badly Trump/DeSantis are screwing the virus up in places like this.

And this poll is underselling Bidens margins, considering most of the undecided/other vote comes from young people and black voters

No.

how is not? most of the undecided vote is among black voters (they have 10%+ undecided), and the 18-34 vote has "12% other" which also will likely not bear out.

There's no way a poll showing Biden up by 13 in Florida is understating his lead.  Period.

[wbrocks67]

+13 is probably a big stretch, but FL has been polling VERY well for Biden, with more than a bunch of polls in the 6-8 range for him. I think we may be underestimating how badly Trump/DeSantis are screwing the virus up in places like this.

And this poll is underselling Bidens margins, considering most of the undecided/other vote comes from young people and black voters

No.

how is not? most of the undecided vote is among black voters (they have 10%+ undecided), and the 18-34 vote has "12% other" which also will likely not bear out.

There's no way a poll showing Biden up by 13 in Florida is understating his lead.  Period.

you're generally true, but i'm just stating that by the facts of this poll - the undecideds/other demographic make-up favors Biden.

[ProudModerate2]

I'm starting to think that FL has gone from just Tilt Biden to Lean Biden.

[Use Your Illusion]

I'm starting to think that FL has gone from just Tilt Biden to Lean Biden.

I'm a little less optimistic but share the same opinion. I think FL has gone from toss-up (and let's be fair, FL always is) to tilt for Biden. At this point, I'd bet the house that the winner of FL will be by 175,000 to 200,000 because it would be presumptuous to assume that Trump would win by any more than that and also to ignore that Democrats do not carry FL by large margins -and that's why it's such a swing state to begin with even though it's friendlier to Republicans.


If the election was held today Biden wins FL. I can say that confidently. But there's also like 100 days or whatever it is til the election and that much time for the massive conservative base in FL to wake up and remember it's massive. I'm at the point where Trump could win FL and I won't be the least bit shocked. I've made my peace with either result a long time ago.

[morgieb]

This is the best theory I've seen yet for the online vs live-caller difference:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1286428813170286592

But the live caller polls have been showing these numbers for like two months now. It can't really a temporary non-responsive bias swing anymore...

On the other hand the online polls have kind of moved in Trump's direction this month after being as bad for him as the live ones. I wonder why that is - some evidence of a shy Trump effect?

[Bootes Void]

This has to be worst poll of the whole cycle

[lfromnj]

I love how wbrocks tried to unskew this poll even further to Biden.

[AGA]

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He didn't even get that in Miami. Oof.

[Pericles]

To be fair, the summer Covid spike was likely an unusually bad period for Trump and the Republicans in Florida. It was never +13 though.

[AGA]

To be fair, the summer Covid spike was likely an unusually bad period for Trump and the Republicans in Florida. It was never +13 though.

If Wisconsin results tell us anything, I'm not sure if COVID spikes actually helped Biden. He was improving in the polls, but that might have meant that Democrats were more willing to stay inside and respond to pollsters.

[Pericles]

To be fair, the summer Covid spike was likely an unusually bad period for Trump and the Republicans in Florida. It was never +13 though.

If Wisconsin results tell us anything, I'm not sure if COVID spikes actually helped Biden. He was improving in the polls, but that might have meant that Democrats were more willing to stay inside and respond to pollsters.

I posted a thread about this recently, the polls did have a late shift to Biden in Wisconsin which was unusual. So maybe the Covid spike cost Trump Wisconsin.

[lfromnj]

To be fair, the summer Covid spike was likely an unusually bad period for Trump and the Republicans in Florida. It was never +13 though.

If Wisconsin results tell us anything, I'm not sure if COVID spikes actually helped Biden. He was improving in the polls, but that might have meant that Democrats were more willing to stay inside and respond to pollsters.

I posted a thread about this recently, the polls did have a late shift to Biden in Wisconsin which was unusual. So maybe the Covid spike cost Trump Wisconsin.

Marquette did not

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh. That's from July, but still. It's even worse than the Gillum +12 poll in September 2018. I pointed that out in other 2020 Quinnipiac polls and questioned the pollster's credibility and was almost laughed at by some fellow posters.

Consequently, I will consider Quinnipiac junk unless they correct their track record over the next 1-2 cycles and correctly call races. Especially their FL polling has been a complete joke.

[Pericles]

To be fair, the summer Covid spike was likely an unusually bad period for Trump and the Republicans in Florida. It was never +13 though.

If Wisconsin results tell us anything, I'm not sure if COVID spikes actually helped Biden. He was improving in the polls, but that might have meant that Democrats were more willing to stay inside and respond to pollsters.

I posted a thread about this recently, the polls did have a late shift to Biden in Wisconsin which was unusual. So maybe the Covid spike cost Trump Wisconsin.

Marquette did not

If the average changed, presumably some trend occurred (the +17% poll wasn't even in the final average), and you shouldn't base your analysis on just one poll.

[ElectionsGuy]

This race was NEVER anywhere NEAR Biden +13. It was always porn for Democrats. But wbrocks somehow insisted that this underestimated Biden's potential. Being 16 points off just wasn't the full potential for Quinnipiac.

[ElectionsGuy]

To be fair, the summer Covid spike was likely an unusually bad period for Trump and the Republicans in Florida. It was never +13 though.

If Wisconsin results tell us anything, I'm not sure if COVID spikes actually helped Biden. He was improving in the polls, but that might have meant that Democrats were more willing to stay inside and respond to pollsters.

I posted a thread about this recently, the polls did have a late shift to Biden in Wisconsin which was unusual. So maybe the Covid spike cost Trump Wisconsin.

Marquette did not

Marquette was steady the entire time, so were Trafalgar and the other "right-leaning" polls. It was only the media polls that had these weird inconsistent shifts from week to week, which tells you not that it was a "snapshot in time" (it's supposed to be, but that doesn't explain it) but rather response bias, herding, and narrative promoting.

[Left Wing]

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