FL-Quinnipiac: Biden+13

[Oryxslayer]

If we are searching for some way to explain a 13 point margin, this is basically it. Florida being the global epicenter of Covid AFTER everyone's rally-around-the-flag support dissipated means that the residents are naturally going to have negative approvals of their leaders. Trump and DeSantis both being of the same party but both saying "it's the other guys fault" doesn't help their case electorally.

The margin also likely gets a good deal smaller under a likely voter screen like usual in Florida, but in doing so probably lines up with the rest of florida polling.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Maybe Trump is doing poorly with Cubans?  This poll doesn't specifically break down Hispanics, and they seem to have made the difference for Scott and DeSantis last time. Cubans and and a massive drop with college educated white women might be what sinks Trump here.

[Xing]

Way too D-friendly, but lol at everyone who thought FL was destined to go Republican by less than 1% even in a Democratic landslide. There are not going to be swaths of Clinton/Trump voters in Miami-Dade (not would there have been had Sanders been the nominee.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

b-b-b-but Nate Silver told me Biden's polls were collapsing

Is it me or is the only overall change in polls recently that national online polls are showing a bit of a decline for Biden?  State polls and live-caller national polls generally seem to be pretty much saying the exact same thing that they have for the last couple months.  I have no idea why that would be though.

It's not just you.  Harry Enten has commented on it and said he may write an article on it soon.

Nate Cohn weighs in with the same point:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1286368495421329411

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

b-b-b-but Nate Silver told me Biden's polls were collapsing

Is it me or is the only overall change in polls recently that national online polls are showing a bit of a decline for Biden?  State polls and live-caller national polls generally seem to be pretty much saying the exact same thing that they have for the last couple months.  I have no idea why that would be though.

It's not just you.  Harry Enten has commented on it and said he may write an article on it soon.

Nate Cohn weighs in with the same point:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1286368495421329411

Soooo....what does this all mean?

[woodley park]

Rich Lowry is a jerk. DeSantis is finally suffering the consequences of incompetent governance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis and Ducey are very unpopular now

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I wonder what our resident Florida is unwinnable poster Adam Griffin thinks og  this

[KaiserDave]

The margin is questionable of course but the trends are great

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I wonder what our resident Florida is unwinnable poster Adam Griffin thinks og  this

I thought he was more of the school of thought that Florida shouldn’t be invested in because there’s no downballot races of note there and it’s unlikely to be the tipping point state

[Brittain33]

Oh boya!

Anyway, not happening.

[kph14]

Just pointing out that in the Summer of 2018 Q-Poll had Nelson and Scott tied at 49%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl09052018_fjya13.pdf

[Skye]

Just pointing out that in the Summer of 2018 Q-Poll had Nelson and Scott tied at 49%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl09052018_fjya13.pdf

Their final poll also was Nelson +7, fwiw.

Honestly Biden +13 is a way to D-friendly in my opinion, but Trump's numbers in FL have been really bad for a while.

[Non Swing Voter]

and this is why Biden is a better candidate than Sanders.  Sanders would have been clear underdog in FL whereas Biden is now looking like a clear favorite.

[Person Man]

and this is why Biden is a better candidate than Sanders.  Sanders would have been clear underdog in FL whereas Biden is now looking like a clear favorite.

Sanders's path to victory would have been an inside straight by going through Obama-Trump territory.

[Alben Barkley]

Way too D-friendly, but lol at everyone who thought FL was destined to go Republican by less than 1% even in a Democratic landslide. There are not going to be swaths of Clinton/Trump voters in Miami-Dade (not would there have been had Sanders been the nominee.)

There most definitely would have been significantly more if Sanders was the nominee.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

FL Titanium R ---> Safe R

[President Johnson]

Uncle Joe is doing well in Florida and is likely to win it unless something changes, but this margin is way too much. Remember these guys had Gillum up by eight shortly before the election in 2018.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is the best theory I've seen yet for the online vs live-caller difference:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1286428813170286592

[wbrocks67]

Do people like to ignore that Quinnipiac was actually dead on in their last poll of FL in 2016? Yes, 2018 was a misstep for them, but it also could've just been an anomaly. Their last poll in 2016 had the race tied.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Bulls***! Maybe if they didn't s*** in the punch bowl during 2018, I would be excited and buy this with a small grain of salt. But there isn't enough salt in the world for me to take this poll with!

However, one thing seems certain, no matter how generous Florida polling overall might be to Biden, and it's that things aren't looking as good as they should be for the President in his new home state. I would say that for the GOP overall in the Sunshine State but in time I'm sure DeSantis, Rubio, and Scott will return to being popular, or at least tolerated in the years leading up to their re-elections.

And speaking of which, shifting topics slightly: I was raked over the coals a little while back in another Florida thread by Gulf Coastal Elitist for my inability to resist making Florida jokes. I will always stand by schtick of being comically frustrated with this state but I'll tell you what, in the interest of being diplomatic, if The Sunshine State's voters and electors end up casting their 29 electoral votes for Biden (and therefore basically granting him the whole election) later this year, no matter by how small of a margin, I vow not to make a single joke at Florida's expense on this site from then until they next disappoint me politically by re-electing one, two, or all of the aforementioned three statewide officeholders of theirs. It's a win-win for me.

[wbrocks67]

Again: Quinnipiac was right on the mpney in FL in 2016. People need to stop not believing them because they messed up one time in 2018.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Again: Quinnipiac was right on the mpney in FL in 2016. People need to stop not believing them because they messed up one time in 2018.

It was a pretty big mess up though.

[Lief 🗽]

This is the best theory I've seen yet for the online vs live-caller difference:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1286428813170286592

But the live caller polls have been showing these numbers for like two months now. It can't really a temporary non-responsive bias swing anymore...

[Use Your Illusion]

Bulls***! Maybe if they didn't s*** in the punch bowl during 2018, I would be excited and buy this with a small grain of salt. But there isn't enough salt in the world for me to take this poll with!

*gives a socially distanced hug*

This guy gets it!!!! And now everyone sees why I stroll into every thread saying "Oh Biden can't be winning by THAT much!!" Bullsh**t. They got it wrong by like +8 up and down the rust belt and completely ed up FL.



Fool me twice man