2020: Paul Ryan (R) vs. Biden (D) if Romney won in 2012 and 2016

[darklordoftech]

If Romney defeated Obama in 2012 and Hillary in 2016, what would a 2020 race between Ryan and Biden look like?

[Chips]

Biden wins because of fatigue and Republicans winning 4/5 previous elections. No idea what the map looks like. Maybe something like this?

280-258 Biden

[NewYorkExpress]

First off, I'm butterflying away COVID because that isn't fair to either candidate.

Second, I can't imagine Ryan's budgets as a hypothetical President being particularly popular (they certainly weren't when he was in Congress), so Biden will have plenty of ammunition to work with, especially if Romney leaves him in charge of bigger projects.

Joe Biden/Hillary Clinton 54% 322 Electoral Votes
Paul Ryan/Pat Toomey 44% 216 Electoral Votes.

[Andrew Yang 2024]

Why would he pick Hillary? OP said she lost in 2016. If I was Biden, I'd go with someone younger. And more progressive than her.

[NewYorkExpress]

Why would he pick Hillary? OP said she lost in 2016. If I was Biden, I'd go with someone younger. And more progressive than her.

I didn't read the OP that closely, but I figured an incumbent Romney winning in 2016 meant Hillary didn't run.

[😥]

Without Trump, Arizona would still be a Lean R state

Fmr. VP Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 348 EVs; 52.8% PV
VP Paul Ryan (R-WI)/Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) 190 EVs; 45.3% PV

Bonus for Senate elections

2012
R gain: NE, ND
D gain: IN, MA, ME (King)
52-48 D

2014
R gain: AR, SD, WV
D gain: GA
I gain: KS
50-50 R
*Begich (D-AK), Udall (D-CO), Hagan (D-NC), Baucus (D-MT), Landrieu (D-LA) reelected
*Braley (D-IA) elected

2016
R gain: none
D gain: IL, MO, PA, WI
54-46 D

2018
R gain: none
D gain: AZ, NV, TN, TX
58-42 D

Ratings for 2020:
AL: Jeff Sessions, Safe R
AK: Mark Begich, Lean D
AZ-special: Martha McSally, Lean D (flip)
AR: Tom Cotton, Safe R
CO: Mark Udall, Safe D
DE: Chris Coons, Safe D
GA: Michelle Nunn, Tossup
ID: Jim Risch, Safe R
IL: Dick Durbin, Safe D
IA: Bruce Braley, Tilt D
KS: Greg Orman, Tossup
KY: Mitch McConnell, Lean R
LA: Mary Landrieu, Tossup
ME: Susan Collins, Safe R
MA: John Kerry, Safe D
MI: Gary Peters, Safe D
MN: Al Franken, Safe D
MS: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Safe R
MT: Max Baucus, Lean D
NE: Ben Sasse, Safe R
NH: Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
NJ: Cory Booker, Safe D
NM: Tom Udall, Safe D
NC: Kay Hagan, Likely D
OK: Jim Inhofe, Safe D
OR: Jeff Merkley, Safe D
RI: Jack Reed, Safe D
SC: Lindsey Graham, Safe R
SD: Mike Rounds, Safe R
TN: Lamar Alexander, Safe R
TX: John Cornyn, Likely R
VA: Mark Warner, Safe D
WV: Shelley Moore Capito, Safe R
WY: John Barrasso, Safe R

Potential composition after 2020:
Democrats: 57-59
Republicans: 43-41

[President Biden Democrat]

I don't think Biden would be the Democratic nominee. It would probably be a fresh face, likely someone younger. Not so sure, who that would be. My top contender would be Harris.

If it was Biden vs. Ryan, here is my map:

Fmr VP Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA): 359 EV
VP Paul Ryan (R-WI)/Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL): 179 EV

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Without Trump, Arizona would still be a Lean R state

Fmr. VP Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 348 EVs; 52.8% PV
VP Paul Ryan (R-WI)/Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) 190 EVs; 45.3% PV

Bonus for Senate elections

2012
R gain: NE, ND
D gain: IN, MA, ME (King)
52-48 D

2014
R gain: AR, SD, WV
D gain: GA
I gain: KS
50-50 R
*Begich (D-AK), Udall (D-CO), Hagan (D-NC), Baucus (D-MT), Landrieu (D-LA) reelected
*Braley (D-IA) elected

2016
R gain: none
D gain: IL, MO, PA, WI
54-46 D

2018
R gain: none
D gain: AZ, NV, TN, TX
58-42 D

Ratings for 2020:
AL: Jeff Sessions, Safe R
AK: Mark Begich, Lean D
AZ-special: Martha McSally, Lean D (flip)
AR: Tom Cotton, Safe R
CO: Mark Udall, Safe D
DE: Chris Coons, Safe D
GA: Michelle Nunn, Tossup
ID: Jim Risch, Safe R
IL: Dick Durbin, Safe D
IA: Bruce Braley, Tilt D
KS: Greg Orman, Tossup
KY: Mitch McConnell, Lean R
LA: Mary Landrieu, Tossup
ME: Susan Collins, Safe R
MA: John Kerry, Safe D
MI: Gary Peters, Safe D
MN: Al Franken, Safe D
MS: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Safe R
MT: Max Baucus, Lean D
NE: Ben Sasse, Safe R
NH: Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
NJ: Cory Booker, Safe D
NM: Tom Udall, Safe D
NC: Kay Hagan, Likely D
OK: Jim Inhofe, Safe D
OR: Jeff Merkley, Safe D
RI: Jack Reed, Safe D
SC: Lindsey Graham, Safe R
SD: Mike Rounds, Safe R
TN: Lamar Alexander, Safe R
TX: John Cornyn, Likely R
VA: Mark Warner, Safe D
WV: Shelley Moore Capito, Safe R
WY: John Barrasso, Safe R

Potential composition after 2020:
Democrats: 57-59
Republicans: 43-41

I'd flip OH, and possibly NC.  Ryan is just a mediocre candidate

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Leaning towards projecting a Ryan victory because of Romney's different approach to COVID-19. He would not be inclined to enflame culture war divides with governors, especially considering that he wasn't going to be up for reelection himself and it could be a very incumbent-friendly year for Democrats and Republicans all around.