Argentina General Discussion 🇦🇷

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Where exactly do the Trotskyists do well?

In relative terms they do best among Fernandez voters, Southerners (specifically Patagonians and people from Buenos Aires province) and Gen-Zs, albeit to a far lesser degree than the libertarians.

If you want to see for yourself just check the link and scroll to the very bottom. It's a little long and it's in Spanish but it's intuitive enough to understand.

Their base is younger middle class porteños (people from Buenos Aires City), they also do quite well in Mendoza
Also, most FIT voters prefer FpV to JxC, but not by that much, and the parties themselves (especially MST) hate Cristina Kirchner

I have never seen them do particularly well in Buenos Aires Province, either on the Conurbano or el Interior

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

let’s get those abortions baybee, get that fetus, kill that fetus

How does the senate look?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

let’s get those abortions baybee, get that fetus, kill that fetus

How does the senate look?

It looks like it will be a close vote, according to Clarín (the country's largest newspaper)out of the 71 senators who can vote on this law (Alperovich from Tucumán has been suspended for  allegedly raping his niece on numerous occasions) 34 senators supporting the bill and 36 opposing it, and 1 unknown (Crexell, who abstained in the 2018 vote)

But the Senate has always been in the hands of the governors and some FpV pro-life senators may vote for the bill to get some favors from the national government for their provinces and masters

[H. Ross Peron]

Where exactly do the Trotskyists do well?

In relative terms they do best among Fernandez voters, Southerners (specifically Patagonians and people from Buenos Aires province) and Gen-Zs, albeit to a far lesser degree than the libertarians.

If you want to see for yourself just check the link and scroll to the very bottom. It's a little long and it's in Spanish but it's intuitive enough to understand.

Their base is younger middle class porteños (people from Buenos Aires City), they also do quite well in Mendoza
Also, most FIT voters prefer FpV to JxC, but not by that much, and the parties themselves (especially MST) hate Cristina Kirchner

I have never seen them do particularly well in Buenos Aires Province, either on the Conurbano or el Interior

Is Buenos Aires province mostly working-class (at least in the metro area) given the province generally votes for FpV even when the city has generally voted for the UCR/JxC.

[Estrella]

Where exactly do the Trotskyists do well?

In relative terms they do best among Fernandez voters, Southerners (specifically Patagonians and people from Buenos Aires province) and Gen-Zs, albeit to a far lesser degree than the libertarians.

If you want to see for yourself just check the link and scroll to the very bottom. It's a little long and it's in Spanish but it's intuitive enough to understand.

Their base is younger middle class porteños (people from Buenos Aires City), they also do quite well in Mendoza
Also, most FIT voters prefer FpV to JxC, but not by that much, and the parties themselves (especially MST) hate Cristina Kirchner

I have never seen them do particularly well in Buenos Aires Province, either on the Conurbano or el Interior

Is Buenos Aires province mostly working-class (at least in the metro area) given the province generally votes for FpV even when the city has generally voted for the UCR/JxC.

Conurbano, the ring of suburbs around the city of Buenos Aires, is very working class (though with growing gated communities) and has always been a Peronist stronghold. The rest of the province is more favorable to non-Peronists, but because conurbano contains most of the population, the province as a whole is usually safe Peronist.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Another poll, this one looks much better for Fernandez than the last. Despertar still holding at double digits.

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1337536851368964097

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The Senate will vote on the abortion bill on December 29

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1337956335279890434

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Bumping this thread for the Senate's vote on abortion today tomorrow morning?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Senate just got to 35 votes in favor of the (now modified, so I assume it’ll have to pass the lower chamber again - is this correct?) abortion law. It’s now got enough support to pass with a tiebreaking vote from CFK.

[PSOL]

Left Front seems to view the vote with unusual optimism; at least that’s what I’m getting from the optimism for the future on their English affiliate‘s organ.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Apparently, the count stands at 37-32 in favor.

https://twitter.com/pablo_rosendo/status/1344086648250916864?s=21

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Leavy said he'll vote in favour. If Weretilneck confirms his positive vote, the bill will get to 38.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I went to Argentina on vacation last year.  It has a rich culture, beautiful scenery, and incredible food.  It would be so heartbreaking to see them remove their protections for unborn babies.  Pray for Argentina!!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Somewhat off topic, but in 2003 the vote divided pretty starkly along geographic lines, with Menem dominating in the north, Kirchner in the south and Murphy picking up CABA and parts of Buenos Aires province. Did the vote split on personalist lines or was there something more at play?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The bill passes 38-29 with one abstention, which is almost a mirror image of the 2018 vote.

Argentina will become the largest Latin American country to legalize abortion on demand.

[Velasco]

Somewhat off topic, but in 2003 the vote divided pretty starkly along geographic lines, with Menem dominating in the north, Kirchner in the south and Murphy picking up CABA and parts of Buenos Aires province. Did the vote split on personalist lines or was there something more at play?

There must be more factors at play, but surely the result in the provinces reflects the geographical origin of the candidates and which one was backed by the PJ local machine. The three peronist candidates won in a landslide in their home provinces: La Rioja (Menem), San Luis (Rodriguez Saa) and Santa Cruz (Kirchner). Duhalde controlled the PJ in Buenos Aires ptovince and helped Kirchner to win there, although the vote was very splitted throughout the province (Kirchner took the Conurbano, the rest looks like a mosaic). Aside from Menem in the north and Kirchner in the south, Rodriguez Saa won in the central-western Cuyo region (San Luis, Mendoza and San Juan) Lopez Murphy performed well among urban middle class voters (BS As city and some provincial capitals were his strongholds), as well as Lilita Carrio (she did well in CABA and Santa Fe province). Both Lopez Murphy and Carrio came from the UCR and did much better than the official candidate Moreau

[Antonio the Sixth]

Congrats, Argentine women!

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

38 in favor - 29 against - 1 abstention - 4 not present (2 of these for involuntary reasons)

Kirchnerismo and allies: 25 in favor - 12 against - 1 - 3
Cambiemos: 11 in favor - 14 against
Others:  2 against - 3 in favor - 1 not present


As is tradition, La Nación has the best graphs

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/aborto-legal-segui-definicion-tiempo-real-senado-nid2554010

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

There must be more factors at play, but surely the result in the provinces reflects the geographical origin of the candidates and which one was backed by the PJ local machine. The three peronist candidates won in a landslide in their home provinces: La Rioja (Menem), San Luis (Rodriguez Saa) and Santa Cruz (Kirchner). Duhalde controlled the PJ in Buenos Aires ptovince and helped Kirchner to win there, although the vote was very splitted throughout the province (Kirchner took the Conurbano, the rest looks like a mosaic). Aside from Menem in the north and Kirchner in the south, Rodriguez Saa won in the central-western Cuyo region (San Luis, Mendoza and San Juan) Lopez Murphy performed well among urban middle class voters (BS As city and some provincial capitals were his strongholds), as well as Lilita Carrio (she did well in CABA and Santa Fe province). Both Lopez Murphy and Carrio came from the UCR and did much better than the official candidate Moreau

This is pretty on point, but to add a few things:
1- Menem won the north, except for two provinces, Jujuy and Formosa. In both cases, provincial governors/strongmen Gildo Insfrán and Eduardo Fellner threw their support (and their electoral machineries) behind Kirchner, giving him the win there.
2- Menem won in santa fe, but Carrió came a very close secod, she won in the city of santa fe as well as the south of the province, including Rosario. I looked it up and it turns out she was allied to the socialist party, which, for whatever reason, has always been pretty strong in Santa Fe. The socialist candidate for governor actually got the most votes in the gubernatorial election that year, but got screwed over by the Ley de lemas system.
3- López Murphy came second in Córdoba, which is unsurprising as the province has always been favourable to the UCR, but i'm surprised he didn't win in the city of Córdoba. The provincial capital is a radical stronhold, but i assume that electorate was divided between López Murphy and Carrió, and Menem had already won the city in 1995. López Murphy also won in Bahía Blanca (again, not surprising, also a radical bastion), but i don't know why he did so well in the surrounding areas. Maybe he got the endorsement of a local bigwig, that or his message really resonated with the pople of that region.
4- The vote was dispersed and more or less evenly split in almost all provinces, except in the home turfs of the three peronist candidates, they all got absurdly high percentages in their provinces, upwards of 75%. Goes to show how effective peronists can be at building well oiled political machineries, which are still in place today, the Kirchner and the Rodriguez saá families still control their respective provinces, and menem remains very popular in La Rioja.

[Red Velvet]

I’m so so happy for you Argentina! And jealous as well, must admit. How great must be to have leadership that puts science, public health and human rights over religion and obscurantism! I want to switch.

Alberto Fernandez did what he compromised to do in his campaign and now the abortion right, the power of a woman to choose, is officially LAW in Argentina. Latin America in terms of this specific issue tends to be more backwards than the world, the opposite of what happened with gay marriage, with a significant number of countries being leaders and first to approve in the world. But when I look at the abortion map, I feel ashamed about how women are treated here, we’re in the companion of authoritarian regimes in the world on this issue.

Hopefully the message Argentina is sending works as an inspiration to the whole region that progress can be achieved. It will take a lot of time but Argentina helped it give a significant step forward. Thanks, hermanos!

[Velasco]

2- Menem won in santa fe, but Carrió came a very close secod, she won in the city of santa fe as well as the south of the province, including Rosario. I looked it up and it turns out she was allied to the socialist party, which, for whatever reason, has always been pretty strong in Santa Fe. The socialist candidate for governor actually got the most votes in the gubernatorial election that year, but got screwed over by the Ley de lemas system.

You are right in everything except for the ARI-PS alliance. Elisa Carrio didn't ally with the socialists in 2003, but in the following 2007 election with Ruben Giustiniani as running mate. The PS candidate Hermes Binner finally won the Santa Fe governorship in 2007 and came a very distant second in the 2011 presidential election as the Broad Front leader. In 2003 Carrio came first in Rosario and Mar del Plata; in 2007 she was the leading candidate in the CABA and came second nationwide behind Cristina (and Lavagna won in Cordoba, a peronist running for the UCR alliance)

I have a better map of the 2003 here

https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/argentina-20031.png

Decriminalization of abortion was a matter of time 💚

[afleitch]

Fantastic news for Argentina.

Interesting that a plurality of men voted against it with women in favour and a majority of representatives under 60 voted for it.

[Former President tack50]

For fun, here is a map of how the vote went that I did myself (click to enlarge)

[Kingpoleon]

This is a sad step backwards on human rights in Argentina, but one which I believe will soon be overturned.