Argentina General Discussion 🇦🇷

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In news that's apparently huge in Argentina but totally ignored internationally, there have been massive protests in the province of Formosa against the reimposition of lockdown measures that have turned into protests against the Peronist governor, Gildo Insfrán.

Formosa is the poorest of Argentina's provinces and has traditionally gone for Insfrán by Stalinesque margins. The generous interpretation of this is that this is simply the result of machine politics, as a majority of the population is employed by the state and Insfrán regularly hands out raises. The not so generous interpretation is that hired Paraguayans are brought in for elections and anyone who raises trouble, particularly journalists, face harassment from Peronist informants, officials and paramilitaries. Thanks to Argentina's federal system and the friendly government in Buenos Aires (though to be fair Macri didn't do anything when he had the chance either) the province has turned into something like a Venezuela within Argentina.

Naturally this can make reporting from Formosa somewhat unreliable. Some claim the protests explicitly seek Insfrán's removal while more Peronist friendly sources claim that most of the protesters denounce the "radical liberal terrorists":

In the march that took place this Saturday, much calmer - everything is less than what was experienced on Friday - the merchants, the people who want to work; were in charge of letting the opportunist politicians and the young people who showed the insignia of the Liberal Party know - they said they were the representatives of the thought of the economist Javier Milei in Formosa - to leave, that the march and the claim were denatured by their presence and claims.

A woman at the protest told NOVA : “Don't confuse things, what I want is for Gildo Insfrán to let us work normally, I voted for him and I would vote for him again. I am not a macrista, nor do I expect any of these characters to return; I just want the governor to reconsider and let us go back to work ”.

Someone else present in the place, questioned the presence in particular of the national deputy Ricardo Buryaile: “He is an opportunist, what is he doing here? Where have you been all this time? He comes to look for votes, but he is wrong. There is a new generation and this man is not in the plans ”.

No flags other than those that clamored to go back to work and free movement; the merchants set the course for the demonstration.

Even when one of the local “representatives” of the libertarians told them with megaphone in hand “that they couldn't be lukewarm now”, inciting violence, the majority began to tell him to leave, to withdraw.

In this Saturday's march, some older adults were even seen arguing with these young liberals who painted the streets and walls of some public buildings with party slogans and calling for the overthrow of a democratically elected government.

Of course things didn't go so well for those "young liberals" once the cops got a hold of them:

https://twitter.com/haterjoindachat/status/1368073120423309312

Insfrán went to Buenos Aires to schmooze some help from Fernández but the outrage forced Fernández to issue a denunciation of "institutional violence" and to promise investigations, though he stopped short of actually sanctioning or denouncing Insfrán by name.

Some of the more hawkish JxC politicians like Patricia Bullrich have already made appearances at the protests. While I can't confirm it I've seen a lot of chatter that Milei attempted to enter via Paraguay and was blocked, which would make some sense considering how pro Insfrán media outlets have portrayed him as some kind of terrorist mastermind

[Estrella]

In news that's apparently huge in Argentina but totally ignored internationally, there have been massive protests in the province of Formosa against the reimposition of lockdown measures that have turned into protests against the Peronist governor, Gildo Insfrán.

Formosa is the poorest of Argentina's provinces and has traditionally gone for Insfrán by Stalinesque margins. The generous interpretation of this is that this is simply the result of machine politics, as a majority of the population is employed by the state and Insfrán regularly hands out raises. The not so generous interpretation is that hired Paraguayans are brought in for elections and anyone who raises trouble, particularly journalists, face harassment from Peronist informants, officials and paramilitaries. Thanks to Argentina's federal system and the friendly government in Buenos Aires (though to be fair Macri didn't do anything when he had the chance either) the province has turned into something like a Venezuela within Argentina.

Interestingly, Formosa is hardly the only province to be run this way. The most extreme case of this was Santiago del Estero until before mid-2000s. Here are some interesting bits from an academic paper I once somehow found.

Santiago del Estero is Carlos Arturo Juárez. I say it without vanity.
 —Carlos Arturo Juárez, 1983

Meanwhile, in the arid and impoverished northern Argentine province of Santiago del Estero, Governor Mercedes Aragonés de Juárez was presiding over the collapse of a half-century-old provincial authoritarian regime. She was the wife and longtime political partner of Carlos (“Tata”) Juárez, a Peronist caudillo and the province’s virtual political owner since he first assumed the governorship in 1949. In 2002 the provincial legislature ordered the Juárez couple’s images placed on provincial postage stamps and issued a resolution proclaiming them “Illustrious Protectors of the Province.” By early 2004, however, things had changed dramatically for the Illustrious Protectors. The murders of two young women, linked to members of the provincial elite and security services, sparked massive local mobilizations that attracted scrutiny from the national press and the central government. The dirty little secrets that had been no secret at all to provincial residents for decades were now a matter of national debate. Conflict in Santiago del Estero had escaped the parochial confines of the Juarista political system. It was now nationalized.

On repeated occasions Juárez and his wife unleashed judicial action to intimidate opponents in the media and the political establishment. Juarista institutional control was supported by its vast patronage system. Over 87 percent of the economically active population was employed by the provincial government. Where institutional control and clientelism failed to neutralize opponents, outright repression filled the void. One notable case involved El Liberal, the largest-circulation newspaper in the province. After the paper reprinted articles critical of Governor Aragonés that had appeared in national newspapers in 2002, government followers launched hundreds of lawsuits that were duly processed by local judges. Facing financial ruin, the newspaper stopped reprinting national reports about provincial politics.

The provincial intelligence system reported directly to Carlos Juárez. The Directorate of Information (known better by locals as “D-2”) operated under the direction of the provincial chief of police, Muza Azar. Azar is named in Nunca Más, the 1985 report by the National Commission on Disappeared Persons (Conadep) as responsible for the detention, torture, and disappearance of local residents during the 1976–83 military dictatorship. The authors of a report prepared in late 2003 for the national Secretariat of Human Rights referred to the directorate as a “provincial Gestapo.” The report noted that, in a province of eight hundred thousand people, the D-2 had created over forty thousand secret files on the activities of politicians, judges, journalists, clergy, businessmen, and, mostly, ordinary citizens.

At times the local opposition did manage to attract national attention to their province’s plight. The most famous of these was a two-day urban riot (known as the Santiagazo) during a provincial financial crisis in December 1993. At that time Juárez was serving a stint in the national Senate. President Carlos Menem ordered a federal intervention in the province to restore public and fiscal order. This did little to change the local political status quo, however. Santiago del Estero was a province that delivered solidly Menemista majorities in national elections. The president had little interest in dismantling a provincial power structure that served him well politically, even if he did not fully trust Carlos Juárez, its political owner.

The system of provincial power known as Juarismo thrived when it succeeded in keeping the province in a state of “rigorous isolation.” It collapsed when local politics became nationalized. The beginning of the end seemed inconsequential. On February 6, 2003, in an area of abandoned fields known as La Dársena, a woman dragging a cart braved the scorching heat to scavenge the fields for cattle bones, which she sold to make her living. On that day the seeker of animal bones stumbled upon human remains. The bodies of two young women lay partially concealed in the tall grass. Soon thereafter the murders were linked to prominent members of the Juárez political clique. This revelation and the uproar that followed provoked a successful center-led assault against the provincial authoritarian regime one year later.

Not long after the two murdered women were discovered, a provincial human rights organization named the Madres del Dolor (mothers of pain) organized a series of large silent marches (marchas del silencio) throughout the capital. The protesters received crucial support from the bishop of the Catholic Church of Santiago del Estero—one of the few local institutions with national linkages that Juárez had failed to neutralize. This was probably not for lack of trying. The previous bishop of Santiago, an articulate Juárez opponent, died mysteriously in a 1998 car accident on a rural road.

In early April 2004 President Néstor Kirchner invoked the federal government’s powers of intervention and ordered the removal from office and arrest of Nina Aragonés and Carlos Juárez. He appointed a federal “interventor” to govern the province. The president’s delegate announced the dawning of a new democratic age in provincial politics, courtesy of the central government.

(Edward L. Gibson: Boundary Control - Subnational Authoritarianism in Democratic Countries)

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Interestingly, Formosa is hardly the only province to be run this way.

No other province is run quite like Formosa though (except maybe Santiago del estero, which after a brief period of democratic opening in 2005 has now fallen back safely in the hands of authoritarianism with the Zamoras). Even the other traditionally "feudal" provinces, like San Luis, La Rioja or Santa Cruz have seem some competitivenes at times, specially in recent years, or at the very least have some sort of, let's call it, "renovation", that is, they aren't ruled by the same guy for 25 straight years.                                                               
Insfrán is kinda exceptional in that he has succesfully aquired almost absolute power in his province, in a way no other peronist caudillo has. Ramón Saadi, Carlos Juarez, Carlos Rovira, José Alperovich, they all found obstacles to their projects of full control, usually from within the peronist movement itself. Case in point, just this week Tucuman's governor, Juan Manzur, who was rumoured to be planing a constitutional reform that would allow him to serve a third consecutive term, had a break up with his vicegovernor, Osvaldo Jaldo, who rejects any such amendments (and controls the legislative majorities to block them), and in all likelihood the "jaldist" faction will replace the "manzurist" one in 2023. No such opposition happens in Formosa, Insfran can do whatever he wants without any resistance.

Personally, i believe this protests will fizzle out once Insfran decides to back down and allow bussineses to reopen, and everything will go back to normal. He will probably rule until he retires (or dies), there's no way in hell that the current government betrays their "querido compañero", and i sincerely doubt any future non-peronist president will ever have the balls to intervene the province. An even if a federal intevention took place, it would end up like Santiago del Estero, some other caudillo would eventually took his place, just like Gerardo Zamora took Juarez place. The economic structure of the province (which is based on clientelism and dependency of the state), combined with the tradicional political culture (which is very iliberal and undemocratic), makes it fertile ground for autocrats to appear .
 
I think a good analysis of this come from Carlos Gervasoni, a political scientist who studied this phenomenom extensively:

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

In other political news, minister of justice Marcela Losardo is out. She decided to resign because she felt "tired" and "overwhelmed". Probably tired of Cristina Kirchner always publicly critizising her and undermining her work and authority all the time.  
This would be pretty big news, had it not been very obvious that Cristina's least favourite cabinet member wouldn't last very long. Now she'll probably get to appoint the new minister, someone more willing to defend her and denounce all corruption investigations against the vicepresident as politically motivated persecution, as well as fully support whatever reform of the judiciary comes next.
As for Losardo, she'll be designated as the ambassador to the Unesco, because god forbid this people ever stop living off the state.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Infrán’s Wikipedia page seems to have been griefed saying he’s “ governor of the Choriplanist sultanate of Formosa” and that he’s “Governor of Formosa Fiefdom”

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Personally, i believe this protests will fizzle out once Insfran decides to back down and allow bussineses to reopen, and everything will go back to normal. He will probably rule until he retires (or dies), there's no way in hell that the current government betrays their "querido compañero", and i sincerely doubt any future non-peronist president will ever have the balls to intervene the province. An even if a federal intevention took place, it would end up like Santiago del Estero, some other caudillo would eventually took his place, just like Gerardo Zamora took Juarez place. The economic structure of the province (which is based on clientelism and dependency of the state), combined with the tradicional political culture (which is very iliberal and undemocratic), makes it fertile ground for autocrats to appear .

I can't speak for how likely it is that this leads to Insfrán's downfall but I suspect that for every day the protests continue FdT's prospects worsen nationally. Argentines might put up with a certain degree of corruption but surely even Peronists draw the line at policemen chanting slogans about their governor that wouldn't be out of place in a third world dictatorship:

In other news, the liberal fronts of Espert and López Murphy have agreed to merge for the upcoming elections. Up until recently there was widespread speculation that López Murphy was going to join with JxC which would have undermined Espert and Milei. This gives Macristas serious reason for concern, since their predominance is almost entirely premised on Argentina's accursed D'Hondt system punishing small vote splitters heavily, but a strong performance from the Liberals (Murphy managed 16% back in 2003's presidential election, though of course the political situation was far different then) would wipe out that justification and potentially shake things up for 2023.

I'm particularly interested in whether the new front (apparently called "Vamos") runs candidates in the smaller provinces and how well they do. Between Recrear, UCeDé and the Libertarians they should have enough of an infrastructure to at least run candidates. By conventional analysis at first I thought there was no chance they'd get anywhere since liberals always get crushed in feudal states but nearly every poll I saw with crosstabs claimed they overperform in the North compared to PBA or CABA. This could just be a function of how hard it is to poll such places (after all, if you polled the Holy Roman Empire you'd probably hit a lot of minor princes and knights as opposed to peasants) but then the fact that not only do libertarians exist in Formosa but that there are enough of them to be scapegoated by Insfrán's lackeys made me think that maybe there really is something there. Of course probably I'm just being optimistic and FdT sweeps the provinces as usual

Besides that they've agreed to hold primaries which probably won't matter as much for the legislative elections - López Murphy will have to fight either Espert in PBA or Milei in CABA for the front spot but to my understanding he could still qualify in a lower spot - but in 2023 it will be very interesting to see who gets nominated for the presidential ticket. All three represent significantly different positions and have very different bases of support so I'm curious as to whose is strongest.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

I can't speak for how likely it is that this leads to Insfrán's downfall but I suspect that for every day the protests continue FdT's prospects worsen nationally.

This whole thing will have exactly 0 impact on the national election. The average argentine isn't paying attention to any of this, he/she is to worried trying to pay bills and buy food with a misery wage, and praying to god vaccines come quickly, that's really the only thing the vast majority care about, not some minor protest in a province most people couldn't even locate on map. Once the media moves on to other stuff, it will fade from memory, and in 6 or 8 months, or whenever elections end up taking place, no one will remember this, not even the formoseños, who will go back to voting for peronism by like 60% or 70%.

Argentines might put up with a certain degree of corruption but surely even Peronists draw the line at policemen chanting slogans about their governor that wouldn't be out of place in a third world dictatorship

I mean, why would they? Ok yes, this particular situation might be a bit too much for some of them, but it's not like peronists aren't always chanting slogans and doing all sort of demonstrations of loyalty to their leaders, it's part of their DNA, cult of personality is one of the cornerstones of peronism, as it is in any populist movement.
Even the more "intelectual" ones, the ones that don't go full "reject liberal democracy, give all power to the leader" mentality, they will still do some mental gymnastics and justify this.

I saw lots of people say that this is a "coup atempt" by the "rural oligarchy", that they're doing this because Insfran stops them from smugling their soy grains to paraguay where they can pay less on export taxes. Which sounds a lot like the "US wants to overthrow Maduro because he won't let them exploit the venezuelan oil" explanation among chavist apologists. Actually the similarities don't stop there, the bolivarian regime is known for drug trafficking, and Formosa is the main port of entry for drugs in Argentina, something that of course requires "aproval" from the provincial government.
In any case, no, peronists don't reject this, never have and never will, from the very begining authoritarianism was part of their ideology, and they won't become champions of democracy now.

In other news, the liberal fronts of Espert and López Murphy have agreed to merge for the upcoming elections. Up until recently there was widespread speculation that López Murphy was going to join with JxC which would have undermined Espert and Milei. This gives Macristas serious reason for concern, since their predominance is almost entirely premised on Argentina's accursed D'Hondt system punishing small vote splitters heavily, but a strong performance from the Liberals (Murphy managed 16% back in 2003's presidential election, though of course the political situation was far different then) would wipe out that justification and potentially shake things up for 2023.

This is a smart move, the only way for liberals to become a serious option for voters (and stop being such a joke) is to have a single, coherent message in a unified and recognizable political force. It's basically what the trotskysts did, yes they still are kind of a meme, but they're doing a lot better than they used to before they formed the Left Front.
Though liberals should only focus on the big provinces, Bs As, CABA, Cordoba, Mendoza, maybe Santa Fe, the rest would be a lost cause and a waste of their time.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In other news, the liberal fronts of Espert and López Murphy have agreed to merge for the upcoming elections. Up until recently there was widespread speculation that López Murphy was going to join with JxC which would have undermined Espert and Milei. This gives Macristas serious reason for concern, since their predominance is almost entirely premised on Argentina's accursed D'Hondt system punishing small vote splitters heavily, but a strong performance from the Liberals (Murphy managed 16% back in 2003's presidential election, though of course the political situation was far different then) would wipe out that justification and potentially shake things up for 2023.

This is a smart move, the only way for liberals to become a serious option for voters (and stop being such a joke) is to have a single, coherent message in a unified and recognizable political force. It's basically what the trotskysts did, yes they still are kind of a meme, but they're doing a lot better than they used to before they formed the Left Front.
Though liberals should only focus on the big provinces, Bs As, CABA, Cordoba, Mendoza, maybe Santa Fe, the rest would be a lost cause and a waste of their time.

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like in Argentina a party that polled strongly in the smallest regions could end up well over the national threshold but below the provincial qualification to the point where in some provinces you could get over 30% of the vote and still get no seat in a supposedly "proportional" system.

Poland also uses D'Hondt and while Poland has some degree of the same issue (PSL won 2% more votes than Konfederacja but ended up winning triple the seats) but as far as I know there aren't any cases of parties literally failing to win seats after crossing the threshold otherwise. I guess it works well for caudillos; is the system intentionally designed like this and why didn't Macri do anything when he had the chance?

Also, in the latest news from Formosa it turns out that about a hundred pregnant Wichí are hiding in the mountains to avoid having their babies taken by the police. Yet still no international coverage; apparently reality TV tier drama about the British royal family is more important. What a world

[Estrella]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like in Argentina a party that polled strongly in the smallest regions could end up well over the national threshold but below the provincial qualification to the point where in some provinces you could get over 30% of the vote and still get no seat in a supposedly "proportional" system.

Poland also uses D'Hondt and while Poland has some degree of the same issue (PSL won 2% more votes than Konfederacja but ended up winning triple the seats) but as far as I know there aren't any cases of parties literally failing to win seats after crossing the threshold otherwise. I guess it works well for caudillos; is the system intentionally designed like this and why didn't Macri do anything when he had the chance?

There isn't a national threshold. It's like Spain: only provincial-level results matter, so parties with a strong local base (=Peronist caudillos) are naturally advantaged. Case in point: in 2015, Chubut Somos Todos won 0.4%, Progresistas won 2.4% and FIT won 3.9% - yet all of these parties won 1 seat each. Macri didn't really have a chance to do anything about it (he needed those Peronist caudillos too).

I guess caudillos are part of the reason, but fairly strong regionalist sentiments mean that elections have to take place in individual provinces. Plenty of parties were f/cked over by this system historically - all sorts of small left-wing parties that sprung up after 2001, conservative liberals in Ucédé and Acción por la República, Modin (far-right party of crazy coupist general Aldo Rico), or Partido Intransigente back in the 80s. These parties only stood a chance of winning seats in Buenos Aires province, the Capital, and some more anti-Peronist inclined provinces like Santa Fe and Córdoba.

I'm not sure what the solution would be. Huge disparities in population between provinces would mean that just increasing the number of seats wouldn't work, and Argentine politics is quite personalist, so I don't see the appeal of nationwide lists.

Also, in the latest news from Formosa it turns out that about a hundred pregnant Wichí are hiding in the mountains to avoid having their babies taken by the police. Yet still no international coverage; apparently reality TV tier drama about the British royal family is more important. What a world

It appears that Gildo is in dire need of an immediate personal meeting with Pachamama, if I may say so.

[Former President tack50]

Huh, I find it interesting that Argentina's legislature (the lower chamber at least) is elected so similarly to our parliament, with even the same exact problems.

I will note however that in theory if you believe the meme tier polls that have the libertarians polling at 15% or so (which I will admit it is a big stretch); that all kind of implodes much like how it imploded here after 2015.

From a quick read, Argentina's smallest provinces seem to give out 5 seats; so in any given province the main duel would be between a 3-2 result and a 2-2-1 result. (or perhaps a 3-1-1 result in particular strongholds)

Incidentally, 15% was what Vox got in November 2020 here and they got representation in provinces with as few as 5 seats (Cantabria's 2-1-1-1 for example); 4 seats (Leon's 2-1-1) and even in some cases in provinces with only 3 seats! (Zamora's 1-1-1)

Of course, with those numbers you start losing seats very fast with only small drops in your % of the vote. So while Vox with 15% managed to get 52 seats; Cs with 12% in 2016 managed only 32 seats and IU in 1996 with 10% managed only a mere 21 seats.

So for Espert's libertarians it will matter a lot whether they are at 15% (which would give them a chance in most of Argentina's provinces), at 10% (which would give them a fighting chance only in the top 7 provinces plus perhaps a couple of particular strongholds in provincial Argentina) or at 5% (which would give them a chance only in CABA, Buenos Aires province, Córdoba and Santa Fe)

This gets accentuated since I imagine the libertarians are only really popular in the rich parts of Greater Buenos Aires and any other big Argentinian cities but not really in rural areas?

Edit: I am dumb and didn't notice Argentina also has staggered elections. Yeah, with the number of seats cut in half, even if lolbertarians polled at 15% they'd have a tough time basically everywhere. They only really have a chance in the big 4 of BS, CABA, Santa Fe and Córdoba; with chances anywhere else linked to having a big local caudillo or getting insanely popular nationwide (like 20% or more)

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like in Argentina a party that polled strongly in the smallest regions could end up well over the national threshold but below the provincial qualification to the point where in some provinces you could get over 30% of the vote and still get no seat in a supposedly "proportional" system.

Poland also uses D'Hondt and while Poland has some degree of the same issue (PSL won 2% more votes than Konfederacja but ended up winning triple the seats) but as far as I know there aren't any cases of parties literally failing to win seats after crossing the threshold otherwise. I guess it works well for caudillos; is the system intentionally designed like this and why didn't Macri do anything when he had the chance?

There isn't a national threshold. It's like Spain: only provincial-level results matter, so parties with a strong local base (=Peronist caudillos) are naturally advantaged. Case in point: in 2015, Chubut Somos Todos won 0.4%, Progresistas won 2.4% and FIT won 3.9% - yet all of these parties won 1 seat each. Macri didn't really have a chance to do anything about it (he needed those Peronist caudillos too).

I guess caudillos are part of the reason, but fairly strong regionalist sentiments mean that elections have to take place in individual provinces. Plenty of parties were f/cked over by this system historically - all sorts of small left-wing parties that sprung up after 2001, conservative liberals in Ucédé and Acción por la República, Modin (far-right party of crazy coupist general Aldo Rico), or Partido Intransigente back in the 80s. These parties only stood a chance of winning seats in Buenos Aires province, the Capital, and some more anti-Peronist inclined provinces like Santa Fe and Córdoba.

I'm not sure what the solution would be. Huge disparities in population between provinces would mean that just increasing the number of seats wouldn't work, and Argentine politics is quite personalist, so I don't see the appeal of nationwide lists.

We could get rid of the minimum of 5 seats per province, and then update the ditribution of seats acording to the most recent census, something than hasn't been done since 1983. This would reduce the representation of the smaller provinces, but it's absurd that Tierra del Fuego has 1 deputy for every 30.000 people, while Buenos Aires has one for every 200.000. Interior politicians would never allow this to happen though, they would argue unequal representation in the lower chamber is necessary for "muh federalism", as if we didn't already had a senate.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

I will note however that in theory if you believe the meme tier polls that have the libertarians polling at 15% or so (which I will admit it is a big stretch); that all kind of implodes much like how it imploded here after 2015.

Yeah, I wouldn't trust those polls, outside of the internet, liberals remain a pretty nieche group. I doubt they'll manage to seriously compete with JxC, if the last three elections are indicative of anything, we seem to be going the opposite route of Spain, we're consolidating into a two-party system (again).

So for Espert's libertarians it will matter a lot whether they are at 15% (which would give them a chance in most of Argentina's provinces), at 10% (which would give them a fighting chance only in the top 7 provinces plus perhaps a couple of particular strongholds in provincial Argentina) or at 5% (which would give them a chance only in CABA, Buenos Aires province, Córdoba and Santa Fe)

This gets accentuated since I imagine the libertarians are only really popular in the rich parts of Greater Buenos Aires and any other big Argentinian cities but not really in rural areas?

Yes, they poll better in the bigger, urban provinces, among the middle and upper class. In rural areas they would only do well (or close to well) in the central part of the country, which tends to vote for non-peronist candidates.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In terms of electoral reform just voting on all legislative seats every election would go a long way towards making the results more representative. A single D'Hondt election with 5 seats at stake is better than two such elections with 3 and 2 seats at stake. Even better would be to increase the number of seats by 50% to somewhat reduce the disproportionate power of smaller provinces and/or to implement a system of MMP like they have in New Zealand or Bolivia.

I will note however that in theory if you believe the meme tier polls that have the libertarians polling at 15% or so (which I will admit it is a big stretch); that all kind of implodes much like how it imploded here after 2015.

Yeah, I wouldn't trust those polls, outside of the internet, liberals remain a pretty nieche group. I doubt they'll manage to seriously compete with JxC, if the last three elections are indicative of anything, we seem to be going the opposite route of Spain, we're consolidating into a two-party system (again).

So for Espert's libertarians it will matter a lot whether they are at 15% (which would give them a chance in most of Argentina's provinces), at 10% (which would give them a fighting chance only in the top 7 provinces plus perhaps a couple of particular strongholds in provincial Argentina) or at 5% (which would give them a chance only in CABA, Buenos Aires province, Córdoba and Santa Fe)

This gets accentuated since I imagine the libertarians are only really popular in the rich parts of Greater Buenos Aires and any other big Argentinian cities but not really in rural areas?

Yes, they poll better in the bigger, urban provinces, among the middle and upper class. In rural areas they would only do well (or close to well) in the central part of the country, which tends to vote for non-peronist candidates.

I know the stereotype is that they only exist in CABA and PBA but both the polls (which, granted, have a bad record in Argentina) and the actual results of Espert last time suggest otherwise.

Looking only at Espert's actual results, CABA isn't even in his top 5 provinces. The first is the southernmost province of Tierra del Fuego where he got 2.8%, though TdF is of course tiny, unrepresentative and populated by penguin researchers. The next three in order are the next southernmost provinces of Patagonia in exact south-to-north geographic order (excluding Santa Cruz which is the single lowest, lol): Chubut (2.4%), Neuquén (2.0%) and Río Negro (2.0%). Then there's Jujuy in the northwest where he picked up 1.92%, beating out his CABA performance of 1.87%. In PBA Espert actually did worse than average, picking up a smaller portion of the vote than in such bastions of liberalism as La Rioja and Salta.

Meanwhile while polls may be unreliable and most don't even record the geographic vote distribution the ones I've seen nearly always put their highest numbers in the North and Patagonia (another example). The only other consistent features are that they perform best with the youngest voters (18-24) and according to JxC's internal polls Espert does best among the upper middle class while Milei's base is made up of youth and lower middle class voters.

I don't really have a great explanation for why that is but the best I can think of is that in provinces where JxC's infrastructure is weak to nonexistent some number of non voters and would-be JxC voters are more willing to vote Espert than in places where "it's Macri or K" is drilled into your head by everyone around you. I've noticed that their strongest denunciations inevitably come from JxC supporters, so it could be that the ceiling and floor are both lower in their best provinces than in places where the opposition is nonexistent.

Of course thanks to the aforementioned electoral system if this actually turns out to be the case then they'll have an absurdly inefficient vote so I'm kind of hoping I'm wrong on this one. If all the votes come from CABA and PBA then vote splitting isn't really a problem, especially in the former.

Also, at least so far it looks like the madness in Formosa hasn't just been brushed under the rug. Insfrán is literally the most despised political figure in Argentina with 14% approval to 50% disapproval so it doesn't look like the Peronist propaganda is effective. The approval of every figure in cabinet including Fernández has fallen and the voting intention for FdT has fallen to a statistical tie.

In other news, Fernández went to Chubut to inspect the damage of the recent massive fires across Patagonia (another undercovered news story unfortunately) and on two occasions angry mobs literally hurled rocks at his entourage. Keep in mind this is a province that FdT won with over 50% of the vote.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

In terms of electoral reform just voting on all legislative seats every election would go a long way towards making the results more representative. A single D'Hondt election with 5 seats at stake is better than two such elections with 3 and 2 seats at stake. Even better would be to increase the number of seats by 50% to somewhat reduce the disproportionate power of smaller provinces and/or to implement a system of MMP like they have in New Zealand or Bolivia.

I know the stereotype is that they only exist in CABA and PBA but both the polls (which, granted, have a bad record in Argentina) and the actual results of Espert last time suggest otherwise.

Looking only at Espert's actual results, CABA isn't even in his top 5 provinces. The first is the southernmost province of Tierra del Fuego where he got 2.8%, though TdF is of course tiny, unrepresentative and populated by penguin researchers. The next three in order are the next southernmost provinces of Patagonia in exact south-to-north geographic order (excluding Santa Cruz which is the single lowest, lol): Chubut (2.4%), Neuquén (2.0%) and Río Negro (2.0%). Then there's Jujuy in the northwest where he picked up 1.92%, beating out his CABA performance of 1.87%. In PBA Espert actually did worse than average, picking up a smaller portion of the vote than in such bastions of liberalism as La Rioja and Salta.

Meanwhile while polls may be unreliable and most don't even record the geographic vote distribution the ones I've seen nearly always put their highest numbers in the North and Patagonia (another example). The only other consistent features are that they perform best with the youngest voters (18-24) and according to JxC's internal polls Espert does best among the upper middle class while Milei's base is made up of youth and lower middle class voters.

I don't really have a great explanation for why that is but the best I can think of is that in provinces where JxC's infrastructure is weak to nonexistent some number of non voters and would-be JxC voters are more willing to vote Espert than in places where "it's Macri or K" is drilled into your head by everyone around you. I've noticed that their strongest denunciations inevitably come from JxC supporters, so it could be that the ceiling and floor are both lower in their best provinces than in places where the opposition is nonexistent.

Of course thanks to the aforementioned electoral system if this actually turns out to be the case then they'll have an absurdly inefficient vote so I'm kind of hoping I'm wrong on this one. If all the votes come from CABA and PBA then vote splitting isn't really a problem, especially in the former.

A new electoral system would be nice, but no one has any interest in it, not even the ones that would benefit from it (like the liberals), so yeah, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

In other news, Fernández went to Chubut to inspect the damage of the recent massive fires across Patagonia (another undercovered news story unfortunately) and on two occasions angry mobs literally hurled rocks at his entourage. Keep in mind this is a province that FdT won with over 50% of the vote.

Chubut is one of the worst run provinces and Arcioni one of the worst governors, i'd be pretty pissed too if i lived there.

[alancia]

I wouldn't trust the current political system to make a new electoral one, so I'd understand why they don't propose it.

Chubut is one of the worst run provinces and Arcioni one of the worst governors, i'd be pretty pissed too if i lived there.

Curiously, I live there.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

General polling average:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379419268513665026

Poll of Santa Fe Province:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379456799603052544

Not sure why the Libertarians and UNITE are polled separately since to my understanding they're part of the same front but whatever. The national polling average looks very bad for Todos but the Santa Fe poll looks disastrous for JxC. In theory the combined AL/FV vote of 11.6% is pretty close to the threshold to win a seat but if that overperformance extends to the smaller neighbouring provinces then it could cost the Macri-Larreta-Bullrich axis dearly.

My guess is that they try to organize some sort of coordination in the smaller provinces through the PASO to avoid that. In the mid sized provinces like Santa Fe, Cordoba and Mendoza though I suspect FV will run separately if they don't make a national pact of some sort.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

General polling average:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379419268513665026

Poll of Santa Fe Province:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379456799603052544

Not sure why the Libertarians and UNITE are polled separately since to my understanding they're part of the same front but whatever. The national polling average looks very bad for Todos but the Santa Fe poll looks disastrous for JxC. In theory the combined AL/FV vote of 11.6% is pretty close to the threshold to win a seat but if that overperformance extends to the smaller neighbouring provinces then it could cost the Macri-Larreta-Bullrich axis dearly.

My guess is that they try to organize some sort of coordination in the smaller provinces through the PASO to avoid that. In the mid sized provinces like Santa Fe, Cordoba and Mendoza though I suspect FV will run separately if they don't make a national pact of some sort.

Espert only "rented" the Unite name after having legal issues with a few other parties that he had so "rented" as his actual party didn't have legal personhood yet.
 Unite within Despertar and SF Unite have no actual relation with each other, as the party is just a rented label founded by some largely unknown nutjob, Alejandro Bonacci, with far-right (and not exactly in the libertarian meaning of term) connections
Unite had a very strong performance in Santa Fe in the 2019 provincial elections, under the "leadership" of former gossip-show starlet turned pro-life activist Amalia Granata (who also "rented" the name) getting 16.6% of the votes for provincial diputados (state representatives) and 6 out of  50 seats
Also, national and provincial coalitions are often fairly unrelated
e.g. The Socialist Party ran in 2019 within Consenso Federal for the national elections but with Juntos por el Cambio in Buenos Aires City

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

General polling average:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379419268513665026

Poll of Santa Fe Province:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379456799603052544

Not sure why the Libertarians and UNITE are polled separately since to my understanding they're part of the same front but whatever. The national polling average looks very bad for Todos but the Santa Fe poll looks disastrous for JxC. In theory the combined AL/FV vote of 11.6% is pretty close to the threshold to win a seat but if that overperformance extends to the smaller neighbouring provinces then it could cost the Macri-Larreta-Bullrich axis dearly.

My guess is that they try to organize some sort of coordination in the smaller provinces through the PASO to avoid that. In the mid sized provinces like Santa Fe, Cordoba and Mendoza though I suspect FV will run separately if they don't make a national pact of some sort.

Esperar only "rented" the Unite name after having legal issues with a few other parties that he had so "rented" as his actual party didn't have legal personhood yet.
 Unite within Despertar and SF Unite have no actual relation with each other, as the party is just a rented label founded by some largely unknown nutjob, Alejandro Bonacci, with far-right (and not exactly in the libertarian meaning of term) connections
Unite had a very strong performance in Santa Fe in the 2019 provincial elections, under the "leadership" of former gossip-show starlet turned pro-life activist Amalia Granata (who also "rented" the name) getting 16.6% of the votes for provincial diputados (state representatives) and 6 out of  50 seats
Also, national and provincial coalitions are often fairly unrelated
e.g. The Socialist Party ran in 2019 within Consenso Federal for the national elections but with Juntos por el Cambio in Buenos Aires City

What a mess. So was the Unite that ran in the 2017 legislative election Despertar Unite or SF Unite?

Besides that, how much would you say the strong 2019 provincial performance was the result of personalism and how much was from actual strong pro-life sentiment? I've heard some rumours that Gómez Centurión is in negotiation with Espert and Milei. Such a front could conceivably fight for sectors that the Kirchnerists and UCR would otherwise avoid. They could even change their name from Vamos to VámoNOS for the stupid pun factor.

In bad news for Espert and Milei, though, they're in danger of losing certification because it turns out UCeDe took being a zombie party too literally and nominated a guy that has been dead for 4 years to leadership. How a party led by an actual corpse has wider representation than parties with actual popular support is beyond me, the more I see of the intricacies of the Argentine system the less it makes sense

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

General polling average:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379419268513665026

Poll of Santa Fe Province:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379456799603052544

Not sure why the Libertarians and UNITE are polled separately since to my understanding they're part of the same front but whatever. The national polling average looks very bad for Todos but the Santa Fe poll looks disastrous for JxC. In theory the combined AL/FV vote of 11.6% is pretty close to the threshold to win a seat but if that overperformance extends to the smaller neighbouring provinces then it could cost the Macri-Larreta-Bullrich axis dearly.

My guess is that they try to organize some sort of coordination in the smaller provinces through the PASO to avoid that. In the mid sized provinces like Santa Fe, Cordoba and Mendoza though I suspect FV will run separately if they don't make a national pact of some sort.

Esperar only "rented" the Unite name after having legal issues with a few other parties that he had so "rented" as his actual party didn't have legal personhood yet.
 Unite within Despertar and SF Unite have no actual relation with each other, as the party is just a rented label founded by some largely unknown nutjob, Alejandro Bonacci, with far-right (and not exactly in the libertarian meaning of term) connections
Unite had a very strong performance in Santa Fe in the 2019 provincial elections, under the "leadership" of former gossip-show starlet turned pro-life activist Amalia Granata (who also "rented" the name) getting 16.6% of the votes for provincial diputados (state representatives) and 6 out of  50 seats
Also, national and provincial coalitions are often fairly unrelated
e.g. The Socialist Party ran in 2019 within Consenso Federal for the national elections but with Juntos por el Cambio in Buenos Aires City

What a mess. So was the Unite that ran in the 2017 legislative election Despertar Unite or SF Unite?

Neither, it turns out that in 2017 Bonacci rented the label to José Boasso, some guy from the conservative wing of the UCR that at the same time was unsuccessfully trying to primary the Cambiemos official list in SF  and "formed" his own mini party under Bonacci's formal structure as a backup. He later went back to Cambiemos/JxC

Regarding the 2019 performance, it was definitely a mix of both.The pro-life sentiment was definitely there especially after the unsuccessful national abortion bill of 2018, but it was also immensely helped by having a fomer celebrity and "relatable" person at its head instead of a lifelong politician with establishment or far right connections

[Estrella]

Just gonna leave this out here.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1383172749183574022

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1384279724852011019

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1382151154067443712

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1383097763043418118

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1383172749183574022

Bullrich-Lusteau, that would be one weird pair and I doubt they'd get along great as they represent completely opposite wings of JxC and they barely agree on anything.
Macri-Vidal may have made some sense in 2015 or 2019, but nowadays I get the sense that Vidal would rather go die in a ditch than being Macri's VP candidate
Amd Maximo would never go against his mother
Who chose those tickets?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1387414918329163777

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1387529310056161284

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1383172749183574022

Bullrich-Lusteau, that would be one weird pair and I doubt they'd get along great as they represent completely opposite wings of JxC and they barely agree on anything.
Macri-Vidal may have made some sense in 2015 or 2019, but nowadays I get the sense that Vidal would rather go die in a ditch than being Macri's VP candidate
Amd Maximo would never go against his mother
Who chose those tickets?

Strange pairings indeed, but Larreta- Suárez is one solid ticket. The only con i can think of is the latter not being well known nationally, but outside of that, it would make a lot of sense for Larreta to choose him as a running mate.

[buritobr]

I usually have a positive view on Alberto Fernandez.

But today he lost an opportunity to shut up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vugLeR9o2Hg