Who wins the war? (May 2022 edition)

[SnowLabrador]

I've heard Russia is taking a lot of territory lately. I'm voting Russia.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Russia is not taking a lot of territory lately. They're continuing to be routed almost everywhere and have been limited to fighting over a small swath of territory in the Donbas while occasionally contributing indiscriminate war crimes elsewhere.

The dynamic remains the same - either Russia will lose, or they will escalate in a way that will mandate either World War 3 or Putin getting a Swan Lake retirement.

[NewYorkExpress]

Depends on whether Russia escalates to nukes.

If they do, they lose, because they'd probably get wiped off the map. If they don't, they win eventually through attrition.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ukraine

[Middle-aged Europe]

This will possibly return to "frozen conflict" state at one point months from now, with Russia maybe controlling slightly more territory than it did before February 24 this year, but at a huge cost. And then years from now, there is a cease-fire agreement... perhaps earlier if Putin is deposed. I guess you could consider that a strategic victory for Ukraine because Russia would have failed in achieving any of its original main objectives, while losing a lot in terms of military and economic power. Then again, a lot of Ukrainian cities would be in need of rebuilding.

[_.]

Image Link

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine. Russia has lost and is losing their best men and equipment at a unsustainable rate. The Battle of Donbas has seen their offensive of if Izium move at a snail pace while Ukraine has successfully launched counter attacks out of Kharkiv that threatens to cut the off the Izium offense. Ukraine is building up forces and is getting ready to try and take back Kherson which when retaken will throw Russia gains in the south and Crimea into chaos. And ultimately Russia problems are they are isolated economically now while NATO is all in arming Ukraine so Ukraine can not only replace there losses in ways Russia can’t but in terms on equipment they are actually improving

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

SnowLabrador & MATTROSE94 being the only two posters commenting about a Russian "win" should give you an idea about who's winning the war

[CumbrianLefty]

SnowLabrador & MATTROSE94 being the only two posters commenting about a Russian "win" should give you an idea about who's winning the war

Plus NYE with their nukes fixation.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Ukraine. Russia has lost and is losing their best men and equipment at a unsustainable rate. The Battle of Donbas has seen their offensive of if Izium move at a snail pace while Ukraine has successfully launched counter attacks out of Kharkiv that threatens to cut the off the Izium offense. Ukraine is building up forces and is getting ready to try and take back Kherson which when retaken will throw Russia gains in the south and Crimea into chaos. And ultimately Russia problems are they are isolated economically now while NATO is all in arming Ukraine so Ukraine can not only replace there losses in ways Russia can’t but in terms on equipment they are actually improving

The Ukrainians also mobilized over 2 months ago, it takes at least 3 months to train and equip the new conscripts. This will add around 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers to the army.

People assume that Ukraine is outnumbered by the Russians, but that isn't true. Late May and June is when Ukraine drops the hammer on the Russians.

[Agonized-Statism]

With how Russian forces have gone back east and are kinda just hanging out there now, it looks like there will be some kind of partition with the Zelensky government intact in the west. Since Putin's goal was ostensibly to remove that government, and he didn't achieve that goal, you could call it a loss. Since the Ukrainians' goal is to repel the invasion, and not necessarily retake lost territory, it's up for debate whether it's a win or a loss for them. But it's all fuzzy enough to be spun any way the politicians want it to- here in the US, I'm sure Biden would call it a victory and Trump a loss on the campaign trail.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Latest odds on Sportsbet

Ukraine $1.60
Russia $2.35

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ukraine. Russia has lost and is losing their best men and equipment at a unsustainable rate. The Battle of Donbas has seen their offensive of if Izium move at a snail pace while Ukraine has successfully launched counter attacks out of Kharkiv that threatens to cut the off the Izium offense. Ukraine is building up forces and is getting ready to try and take back Kherson which when retaken will throw Russia gains in the south and Crimea into chaos. And ultimately Russia problems are they are isolated economically now while NATO is all in arming Ukraine so Ukraine can not only replace there losses in ways Russia can’t but in terms on equipment they are actually improving

The Ukrainians also mobilized over 2 months ago, it takes at least 3 months to train and equip the new conscripts. This will add around 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers to the army.

People assume that Ukraine is outnumbered by the Russians, but that isn't true. Late May and June is when Ukraine drops the hammer on the Russians.

Well said. The new weapons Ukraine is getting will also help a lot with arming the new troops.
This war is likely to get uglier for Russia the more it drags on.