2008: Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump

[foolcase]

If the 2016 candidates ran in 2008, how would it have turned out? This assumes Trump switches his party to republican right before announcing.

[Roll Roons]

No Republican was going to win in 2008. I think Hillary more or less gets Obama's map, but switch Indiana and Missouri. Maybe Arizona also goes D, since McCain isn't on the ticket. Arkansas is also kind of a wild card, since it went for McCain by 20 in real life, but fond of Bill and still solidly Democratic at the state level.

[darklordoftech]

No Republican was going to win in 2008.

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump is the kind of candidate who probably could beat McCain, and his brash campaign style gives him a punchers chance, but in 2008, he shares a huge vulnerability with Romney.

His money.

Clinton wouldn't be the best candidate to attack him on the issue, but with the right VP choice, she can flatten him.

Senator Hillary Clinton/Senator Barack Obama 56% 407 Electoral Votes
Businessman Donald Trump/Senator Jeff Sessions 42% 131 Electoral Votes

[Chips]

No Republican was going to win in 2008.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Does Trump run as a kind of populist version of Ron Paul (that is, anti-Iraq War but also anti-free trade etc)? If so I don't see him getting the nomination. But if he runs as a more overtly pro-Iraq War than Giuliani and McCain candidate then he'd stand a chance.

The GE would be interesting. He could deploy populist rhetoric once the financial crisis hits (more easier than McCain could have done as Trump isn't a senator), but Clinton would still be favoured.

[MATTROSE94]

In 2008, Donald Trump was a liberal Democrat and a strong Hillary Clinton supporter (until the end of the 2008 Democratic primaries), so this match-up would have been impossible without a pre-2008 point of divergence that makes Donald Trump become a Republican much earlier.