Did Gerald Ford's debate gaffe make the difference in 1976?

[RRusso1982]

In 1976, Jimmy Carter came out of the Democratic convention with a more than 30 point lead over Ford in the polls.  In the end, he fumbled a big lead and hung on to only win by 2 points in the popular vote.  Ford started closing fast after the Republican convention when the Reagan supporters more or less consolidated behind ford.  I'm sure that in the South there were not a few Reagan primary voters that opted for Carter in November.  By the second debate, Ford was still closing, but then he made that gaffe when he said, "There is no Soviet Domination of Eastern Europe."  It certainly paused his momentum at a critical time.  In the end, a swing of 6,000 votes in Ohio and a swing of 15,000 votes in Wisconsin would have won the election for Ford.  Both Ohio and Wisconsin are old rust belt states with a lot of people that are of Eastern European descent.  Those margins are close enough that Ford's debate gaffe could have made a difference.  I think if he hadn't said that, Carter almost certainly would still have won the popular vote, but I think that at the very least, the election may not have been decided that night or the next day.  It could have been another 2000 style fiasco.  What do you think?

[walleye26]

I mean, maaaaybe? I think the bigger thing is that Ford pardoned Nixon and although now we probably accept that was the right thing to do, it certainly wasn’t at that time. The economy was bad with high inflation, and people were looking for a new face.

[SingingAnalyst]

Yes, it probably did. Carter probably won OH, WI, and the election because of it.