COVID-19 will end which governor's career?

[Samof94]

I remember he was thought of by Trump as being too lenient on the virus.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If Stacey Abrams runs for governor again, Kemp's done.

DeSantis I definitely see losing re-election, with maybe the only thing stopping it from happening is a socialist running on the dem ticket.

Abbott may have the best survival chance, but not by much. He's already got a primary challenger in Chad Prather due to his mask mandate, and could be on track to lose if the dem candidate is one of the Castro brothers or even Beto O'Rourke.

And as for Ducey, sayonara. The governor of Arizona after his term is over will be a democrat whether he likes it or not.

Stacey Abrams will not be elected to statewide office EVER.

A Democrat may be elected in Georgia, but not her.  Her behavior in response to her loss over a 2 year period borders on the bizarre.

[Real Texan Politics]

If Stacey Abrams runs for governor again, Kemp's done.

DeSantis I definitely see losing re-election, with maybe the only thing stopping it from happening is a socialist running on the dem ticket.

Abbott may have the best survival chance, but not by much. He's already got a primary challenger in Chad Prather due to his mask mandate, and could be on track to lose if the dem candidate is one of the Castro brothers or even Beto O'Rourke.

And as for Ducey, sayonara. The governor of Arizona after his term is over will be a democrat whether he likes it or not.

Stacey Abrams will not be elected to statewide office EVER.

A Democrat may be elected in Georgia, but not her.  Her behavior in response to her loss over a 2 year period borders on the bizarre.

If she's desperate enough she may try again.

Otherwise if Biden loses, look out for her 2024 presidential campaign! (and God forbid she's the nominee)

[MATTROSE94]

Probably Brian Kemp and Doug Ducey. I can see Ron DeSantis recovering and becoming the Republican nominee in 2032. Greg Abbott probably recovers but doesn't seek any higher office after he retires in 2022 or 2026.

[Nutmeg]

"Kemp will hold on because his voter suppression magic spell will undo any damage he could stand to receive from his subpar pandemic response. He can be Governor for life if he wanted to"

Georgia has term limits, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doug Ducey and Gov Kelly

AZ and KS will switch places in 2022 and there will be 25 D and 25 R,

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Eric Holcomb.

[BaldEagle1991]

Greg Abbott is as popular in Texas as Vladimir Putin in Russia despite Covid so it can't be him.

[Unironic Kamala Harris for President Supporter]

Ducey. DeSantis, Kemp and Abbott won’t be hurt by this.

[Samof94]

Greg Abbott is as popular in Texas as Vladimir Putin in Russia despite Covid so it can't be him.

I disagree. He has a serious primary challenger on the right. He is this right wing “comedian” and country singer who hates masks.

[BaldEagle1991]

Greg Abbott is as popular in Texas as Vladimir Putin in Russia despite Covid so it can't be him.

I disagree. He has a serious primary challenger on the right. He is this right wing “comedian” and country singer who hates masks.

He isnt winning

[mardigrappa]

All those sunbelt governors as it is are going to be fine from their own base, as much as I hate to say it. But they could've very well awakened quite a bit of independent or lean-democratic voters that otherwise had no inclination or intent voting. It's nowhere near the effect of some dicey issues like Obamacare had on many conservative democrats back in 2010-2014.

Unfortunately the truth is quite a lot of people wouldn't care too much. And with or without Covid we would be in a similar spot, but maybe subtract 2 percent. But it isn't going to affect too much.

The only one I am going to say that likely was affected was DeSantis since he was riding pretty high especially after Rick Scott's administration, but managed to mangle it along with a pretty ineffective state-government. So he very well may have had the most to lose especially if it forbodes Dems finally latching onto Florida for years to come. But even then I think a lot of this will blow over and he will still be in a pretty strong position just among his base.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-ron-desantis-popularity-september-2020-20200915-qs5qfrpz5ffutfu67vysmlg2yi-story.html



None of this covid stuff is going to really rock the shifts we've been seeing, and most of the environment is going to continue on with its typical trajectory.

[Alben Barkley]

The fact that Cuomo, who literally has the single worst death rate in the US, is held up as an example of success while DeSantis, who has a death rate around 1/20th that of New York's, is held up as a failure is an indication that the American media has totally abandoned any connection to reality. Apparently electoral benefit from a disaster isn't derived from actually producing good outcomes but by passing Strict Laws, even if those Strict Laws do nothing but make regular people's lives harder.

Talk about a take that aged poorly. Good god this is embarrassing.

[ExSky]

If Stacey Abrams runs for governor again, Kemp's done.

DeSantis I definitely see losing re-election, with maybe the only thing stopping it from happening is a socialist running on the dem ticket.

Abbott may have the best survival chance, but not by much. He's already got a primary challenger in Chad Prather due to his mask mandate, and could be on track to lose if the dem candidate is one of the Castro brothers or even Beto O'Rourke.

And as for Ducey, sayonara. The governor of Arizona after his term is over will be a democrat whether he likes it or not.

Stacey Abrams will not be elected to statewide office EVER.

A Democrat may be elected in Georgia, but not her.  Her behavior in response to her loss over a 2 year period borders on the bizarre.

If she's desperate enough she may try again.

Otherwise if Biden loses, look out for her 2024 presidential campaign! (and God forbid she's the nominee)

Not a chance in hell she’d get any substantial support outside the state of GA in the primaries. She was laughed off as a VP candidate in favor of women who were far more qualified

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The fact that Cuomo, who literally has the single worst death rate in the US, is held up as an example of success while DeSantis, who has a death rate around 1/20th that of New York's, is held up as a failure is an indication that the American media has totally abandoned any connection to reality. Apparently electoral benefit from a disaster isn't derived from actually producing good outcomes but by passing Strict Laws, even if those Strict Laws do nothing but make regular people's lives harder.

Talk about a take that aged poorly. Good god this is embarrassing.

US States by Per Capita Deaths:

[#1] New Jersey 182 / 100k
[#2] New York 170 / 100k
[#3] Massachusetts 137 / 100k
...
[#10] Michigan 71 / 100k
[#11] Illinois 70 / 100k
[#12] Florida 67 / 100k

actually yeah I'd say it aged fine considering they haven't even broken half the death rate of Massachusetts where they supposedly did everything right.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The fact that Cuomo, who literally has the single worst death rate in the US, is held up as an example of success while DeSantis, who has a death rate around 1/20th that of New York's, is held up as a failure is an indication that the American media has totally abandoned any connection to reality. Apparently electoral benefit from a disaster isn't derived from actually producing good outcomes but by passing Strict Laws, even if those Strict Laws do nothing but make regular people's lives harder.

Talk about a take that aged poorly. Good god this is embarrassing.

Half a year later and DeSantis is the leading Republican excluding Trump while Cuomo is on the verge of being impeached for covering up nursing home deaths and also for being a sexual predator

Talk about a take that aged well 🙂

[ElectionsGuy]

This forum continues to have some of the worst electoral takes and aged posts of all time. Just can't stop getting it wrong.

Congrats to Korwinist, who called this out with facts when he was alone, while other so-called Republicans and libertarians on this forum back then and still to this day either believe or didn't call out this dumb media-panic narrative that implementing authoritarian measures on people's basic ability to participate in the economy means you're "taking it seriously" while others who didn't sacrifice that "non-essential" liberty were "killing people". The data has been clear since at least last summer, comparing states like Georgia vs California it was clear lockdowns and mask mandates weren't actually making that much of a difference in terms of case numbers and deaths. It was clear when data came out suggesting 2/3 of people were getting it in their own home. Most people wear masks anyway and many who don't aren't stopped by the mandate. Meanwhile, it does have a scarring mental and academic impact on our children (and the population at large), and basically ripped humanity (and in many cases, people's incomes) and necessarily social interaction right out of their lives.

[beesley]

DeWine, potentially.

[It’s so Joever]

“Hurr Durr Northeast states have the highest death rate hahaha libruhls!”

Seriously, are we ignoring the fact they were hit significantly earlier when treatment and hospital preparations were not at all what they were even after just a few months and before we knew a lot about the virus. We didn’t even have f**king proning as a standardized practice for f**ks sake!
We were still praying for just an effective TREATMENT, not a vaccine but a f**king way to keep gramps from choking to death on his own mucus.


Bergamo got hit hard in March, that doesn’t mean they “failed”, when they did the best they could with the knowledge available.

I could also bring up population density, higher public transportation usage, time of year, etc but why even bother? You morons want to defend your narrative so badly.

Attacking Cuomo for his nursing home massacre is its own thing, but to claim “Muh authoritarian measures” don’t work because of some awful apples to oranges comparisons you made after two minutes tops of research? Pathetic.

“The data has been clear...” WHAT F**KING DATA, MR SCIENTIST?

Did you or a reputable Institute conduct an experimental study of two populations with all major controls standardized (or accounted for) and only change one variable (either a mask mandate or a “lockdown”?

Or did you take two numbers from two demographically different populations in two different areas with different environments, densities, normal behaviors etc and cherry-pick until you could find the perfect narrative-backer?

By the way, masks had to be proven effective with the rigorous standards above, so the fact you are trying to delegitimize them with your s**t excuse of “evidence” is truly laughable.

[chalmetteowl]

COVID-19 will end which governor's career?

As far as terrible "leadership" during the pandemic is concerned, a few names come to mind:

Ron DeSantis, Doug Ducey, Brian Kemp, and Greg Abbott

hopefully John Bel Edwards. He doesn't want to get on the same page with our neighbors in TX and MS in easing restrictions... he definitely won't win Kennedy's senate seat. He might wait for Cassidy's to come up

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The fact that Cuomo, who literally has the single worst death rate in the US, is held up as an example of success while DeSantis, who has a death rate around 1/20th that of New York's, is held up as a failure is an indication that the American media has totally abandoned any connection to reality. Apparently electoral benefit from a disaster isn't derived from actually producing good outcomes but by passing Strict Laws, even if those Strict Laws do nothing but make regular people's lives harder.

Talk about a take that aged poorly. Good god this is embarrassing.

Half a year later and DeSantis is the leading Republican excluding Trump while Cuomo is on the verge of being impeached for covering up nursing home deaths and also for being a sexual predator

Talk about a take that aged well 🙂

I like to imagine you had this thread bookmarked for months just for a reply like that

[ElectionsGuy]

“Hurr Durr Northeast states have the highest death rate hahaha libruhls!”

Seriously, are we ignoring the fact they were hit significantly earlier when treatment and hospital preparations were not at all what they were even after just a few months and before we knew a lot about the virus. We didn’t even have f**king proning as a standardized practice for f**ks sake!
We were still praying for just an effective TREATMENT, not a vaccine but a f**king way to keep gramps from choking to death on his own mucus.


Bergamo got hit hard in March, that doesn’t mean they “failed”, when they did the best they could with the knowledge available.

I could also bring up population density, higher public transportation usage, time of year, etc but why even bother? You morons want to defend your narrative so badly.

Attacking Cuomo for his nursing home massacre is its own thing, but to claim “Muh authoritarian measures” don’t work because of some awful apples to oranges comparisons you made after two minutes tops of research? Pathetic.

“The data has been clear...” WHAT F**KING DATA, MR SCIENTIST?

Did you or a reputable Institute conduct an experimental study of two populations with all major controls standardized (or accounted for) and only change one variable (either a mask mandate or a “lockdown”?

Or did you take two numbers from two demographically different populations in two different areas with different environments, densities, normal behaviors etc and cherry-pick until you could find the perfect narrative-backer?

By the way, masks had to be proven effective with the rigorous standards above, so the fact you are trying to delegitimize them with your s**t excuse of “evidence” is truly laughable.

This is probably directed at me but I'm not sure.

Here's my "two minutes tops" of research that scratches the surface.



As you can see, vast majority of Americans started wearing masks over the summer but didn't prevent the winter spike in cases and deaths. And comparing non-mandated states to mandated states, there is little difference.

This if from the CDC:



Essentially, lifting mask mandates and indoor dinning restrictions resulted in less than 2% increase in case and death rates for masks, and 3% or less increase for case and death rates for indoor dining.

Now here's the questions we should be asking: Is the benefit we get from lockdowns and much less so mask mandates (which I don't mind too much) worth the suffering of our kids and young adults mentally? Self-harm among our kids is up 333%. As many as 3 million kids have gone without schooling (and to the larger point kids are struggling more academically with worse grades). Large amounts of small businesses are permanently closed. Is all that worth it? That's where the conversation should be.  That doesn't even touch the moral argument which the left has already decided against, which is the idea of it even being immoral for the government to declare someone's business closed or stop people from practicing their religion, etc.?

Btw I'm not against wearing masks at all. I wear one in public all the time. I think people should. And I'm not arguing that masks aren't effective at mitigating spread. But when people are screaming about Texas and Mississippi murdering their own citizens because they lifted their mask mandate (something many states never did) and opening to 100% capacity for businesses, it needs clarification. People still wear masks, many people weren't anyway, and for vast majority people this doesn't change their daily behavior. But you wouldn't think so with the reaction it provoked. Also, Connecticut and other blue states have lifted capacity restrictions as cases are plummeting too. Is that also negligible homicide? Do we have to wait until literally everybody has the vaccine to lift anything otherwise its murder?

Notice I didn't do any of that without screaming or character assassination?

[It’s so Joever]

Congratulations, you are proving my point.

You linked to one investigation which didn’t mention controlling for differences in density and demography beforehand, all those would have had a major impact. Instead you link to something which compares rural counties in Montana to places such as Manhattan. Do you need me to explain why that is not such a great comparison, or do you get the point? The only thing that is accounted for is county population total and testing rates.

But even then, even if you were to ignore that (since admittedly some of those factors are near impossible to really account for at this point), a 2% increase in deaths still is a decent amount and given how close we are to the end with these vaccines, and given how every new case slightly increases the chance of a vaccine resistant mutation, it’s still 100% the right decision to keep mask mandates.

Oh and I’m in favor of an option to return to school as long as an online option remains, and I am not for closures anyways now that cases are down and many elderly are vaccinated. Stop shifting the narrative, this is about mask mandates which do not affect any of those things you try to bring up to deflect from the initial discussion.

There is no reason to not have mask mandates, the benefits far outweigh the costs, and you know it. Abbott knows it, this is not about business closures (And what the f**k do masks have to do with that) this is about appealing to a virus-downplaying, anti-factual political base, at least for Abbott.

Abbott’s lifting of the mask mandate will increase death rates, and will increase the risks of a new mutation, one which is potentially vaccine resistant, and for what?

Oh and don’t worry about “character assasination”, I can’t assassinate the nonexistent.

[Skill and Chance]

“Hurr Durr Northeast states have the highest death rate hahaha libruhls!”

Seriously, are we ignoring the fact they were hit significantly earlier when treatment and hospital preparations were not at all what they were even after just a few months and before we knew a lot about the virus. We didn’t even have f**king proning as a standardized practice for f**ks sake!
We were still praying for just an effective TREATMENT, not a vaccine but a f**king way to keep gramps from choking to death on his own mucus.


Bergamo got hit hard in March, that doesn’t mean they “failed”, when they did the best they could with the knowledge available.

I could also bring up population density, higher public transportation usage, time of year, etc but why even bother? You morons want to defend your narrative so badly.

Attacking Cuomo for his nursing home massacre is its own thing, but to claim “Muh authoritarian measures” don’t work because of some awful apples to oranges comparisons you made after two minutes tops of research? Pathetic.

“The data has been clear...” WHAT F**KING DATA, MR SCIENTIST?

Did you or a reputable Institute conduct an experimental study of two populations with all major controls standardized (or accounted for) and only change one variable (either a mask mandate or a “lockdown”?

Or did you take two numbers from two demographically different populations in two different areas with different environments, densities, normal behaviors etc and cherry-pick until you could find the perfect narrative-backer?

By the way, masks had to be proven effective with the rigorous standards above, so the fact you are trying to delegitimize them with your s**t excuse of “evidence” is truly laughable.

This is probably directed at me but I'm not sure.

Here's my "two minutes tops" of research that scratches the surface.



As you can see, vast majority of Americans started wearing masks over the summer but didn't prevent the winter spike in cases and deaths. And comparing non-mandated states to mandated states, there is little difference.

This if from the CDC:



Essentially, lifting mask mandates and indoor dinning restrictions resulted in less than 2% increase in case and death rates for masks, and 3% or less increase for case and death rates for indoor dining.

Now here's the questions we should be asking: Is the benefit we get from lockdowns and much less so mask mandates (which I don't mind too much) worth the suffering of our kids and young adults mentally? Self-harm among our kids is up 333%. As many as 3 million kids have gone without schooling (and to the larger point kids are struggling more academically with worse grades). Large amounts of small businesses are permanently closed. Is all that worth it? That's where the conversation should be.  That doesn't even touch the moral argument which the left has already decided against, which is the idea of it even being immoral for the government to declare someone's business closed or stop people from practicing their religion, etc.?

Btw I'm not against wearing masks at all. I wear one in public all the time. I think people should. And I'm not arguing that masks aren't effective at mitigating spread. But when people are screaming about Texas and Mississippi murdering their own citizens because they lifted their mask mandate (something many states never did) and opening to 100% capacity for businesses, it needs clarification. People still wear masks, many people weren't anyway, and for vast majority people this doesn't change their daily behavior. But you wouldn't think so with the reaction it provoked. Also, Connecticut and other blue states have lifted capacity restrictions as cases are plummeting too. Is that also negligible homicide? Do we have to wait until literally everybody has the vaccine to lift anything otherwise its murder?

Notice I didn't do any of that without screaming or character assassination?

On the one hand, no state managed to pull a New Zealand and avoid an outbreak entirely.  On the other hand, vaccination of the high risk population is almost complete and to date only ~1/3rd of the US population has been infected with COVID.  In all likelihood, that would be at least 2/3rds and quite possibly >90% of the population if we just continued living normal life.  Assuming the same fatality rate, that's 500K-1M lives saved by social distancing!  And in practice, the 1/3rd of Americans who did get COVID were disproportionately low risk young people everywhere outside of the NE, so that's probably a low estimate.

I agree the data on non-medical masks have been disappointing compared to what looked possible by comparison to Asian countries last spring.  With a concerted effort, it should have been possible to get a pack of N95 masks, which indisputably work to every household prior to the fall COVID wave.  Not one state did that, and it was a huge missed opportunity.

[HawkeyePierce]

I wouldn't be surprised if Brad Little got primaried in Idaho by someone to his right. His approvals are okay, but he's really pissed off a large number of Republicans in the state who think he's being too restrictive with COVID precautions.