Im sure there were tossup predictions and Obama predictions but the conventional wisdom seemed to be that Romney would prevail in Florida despite him being likely to lose the election. Why do you think he lost the state? What were your predictions at the time?
I don't agree -- I don't think that was conventional wisdom. Republican commentators said that Florida looked good, but those same folks were the ones who looked bad on election day (Dick Morris?).
The accurate forecasters said that Florida was pure tossup, as it was. I knew Romney was in trouble when, late in October, he was still campaigning hard in Florida instead of WI, PA, MI, IA, OH etc. It meant his internal polls showed that he wasn't doing too well here, which meant the other states were even worse.
He lost Florida simply because he lost the election by 4%. There were also some attacks against Paul Ryan regarding Medicare cuts.
