World Population Likely to Shrink After Mid-Century...
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Frodo
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« on: July 15, 2020, 07:38:46 PM »
« edited: July 15, 2020, 07:48:51 PM by Virginia Yellow Dog »

....but not until it crests at nearly 10 billion by the 2060s:

World's population likely to shrink after 50 years

Quote
The world's population is likely to peak at 9.7 billion in 2064, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by the end of the century, as women get better access to education and contraception, a new study has found.

By 2100, 183 of 195 countries will not have fertility rates required to maintain the current population, with a projected 2.1 births per woman, researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine said.

Some 23 countries -- including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain -- will see populations shrink by more than 50%, researchers said.

However, the population of sub-Saharan Africa could triple, allowing for just under half of the world's population to be African by the end of the century.

The modeling study, published Tuesday in The Lancet, also forecasts dramatic declines in working-age populations in countries including India and China, which will hurt economic growth and could have negative implications for labor forces and social support systems, researchers said.

You know what our secret weapon is to avoid a decline in the working-age population and resulting stagnation here in the United States?  Immigration.  
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2020, 07:13:44 AM »

Good news, though the planet's problem is more resource allocation than overpopulation per se.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2020, 07:45:16 AM »

Good news, though the planet's problem is more resource allocation than overpopulation per se.

That's true in principle, but since nearly everyone wants a Western style consumerist lifestyle there is no way to solve the climate crisis without a big drop in the global population.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2020, 08:20:59 AM »

Yes, in the long term the better off are going to have to learn to live with a bit less.
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dead0man
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2020, 08:43:49 AM »

Yes, in the long term the better off are going to have to learn to live with a bit less.
who decides how much that is and who enforces it?

Good news, though the planet's problem is more resource allocation than overpopulation per se.
which resources do you think we're running out of?  There is more of most things than there was in the past.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2020, 11:04:41 AM »

the big worry here is the idea of middle-income or even poor nations aging without accumulating wealth isn't without a lot of precedent. In places like Japan or Western Europe, a huge amount of pensioners is a social issue but not necessarily a catastrophic one; in countries like Iran or Malaysia or South Africa, you start getting a severe labour shortage and not enough financial base to sustain the care of the non-working elderly. And it's not like you can use the typical solution (i.e. more immigrants) because every country has a deficit of workers.
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