NBC/WSJ Biden +11

[riceowl]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1283506634514468864

Edited: here's the poll https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6989473-200356-NBCWSJ-July-Poll-7-15-2020-Release.html

[Illiniwek]

LFGGGGG

GREAT poll day!

[riceowl]

50% no chance they'll vote Trump
37% no chance they'll vote Biden

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yawoie wowie

[Cassandra]

50% no chance they'll vote Trump
37% no chance they'll vote Biden

If that's true and 37% is Trump's floor, Biden may well manage to get an LBJ'64 style landslide.

[Podgy the Bear]

WONDERFUL!!!

[ultraviolet]

50% no chance they'll vote Trump
37% no chance they'll vote Biden

I’m starting to realize that Trump might be a HEAVY underdog

[WD]

Holy s**t. My mom came into my room to bring me a plate of chicken nuggets and I literally screamed at her and hit the plate of chicken nuggets out of her hand. She started yelling and swearing at me and I slammed the door on her. I'm so happy right now I don't know what to do. I didn't mean to do that to my mom but I'm literally in shock from the results tonight. I feel like I'm going to explode.

[President Johnson]

Just wait for the mask bump. Trump will surge bigly again.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Black voters:
Biden 80
Trump 6

Hispanics:
Biden 67
Trump 22

Women:
Biden 58
Trump 35

Whites with degrees:
Biden 53
Trump 38

[riceowl]

Biden's favorables are bad, but lots of undecideds. 34/46 (20% undecided?) to Trump's 39/54.

[Alben Barkley]

Remember when the lead was supposed to be tightening? You know, like, yesterday?

LOL

[Yoda]

Very flawed. So many, many flaws.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 3.24%
July 9-12, 2020
900 registered voters

Biden 51%
Trump 40%
Neither/other 7%
Depends 1%
Not sure 1%

Change in margin (last poll May 28-June 2): Biden +4%

[BudgieForce]

Biden's favorables are bad, but lots of undecideds. 34/46 (20% undecided?) to Trump's 39/54.

Yeah, I was watching MSNBC and they were talking about this number. It kind of feels like an outlier. Firstly because of the huge amount of undecideds, but secondly because we've had multiple polls from high quality pollsters that show Biden with net favorable numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Country on the right direction/wrong track is at 19/72...that's beyond horrible for an incumbent.

[tagimaucia]

Sample was 100% before the Instagram Goya bump. Throw it in the trash.

[MichaelRbn]

Typical Chuck Todd doing his darndest to “both sides” the enthusiasm level of both candidates’ voters.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1283509711116079113

[WD]

Biden's favorables are bad, but lots of undecideds. 34/46 (20% undecided?) to Trump's 39/54.

Yeah, I was watching MSNBC and they were talking about this number. It kind of feels like an outlier. Firstly because of the huge amount of undecideds, but secondly because we've had multiple polls from high quality pollsters that show Biden with net favorable numbers.

Also what’s up with the GCB? Why is it only D+4?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden's favorables are bad, but lots of undecideds. 34/46 (20% undecided?) to Trump's 39/54.

Yeah, I was watching MSNBC and they were talking about this number. It kind of feels like an outlier. Firstly because of the huge amount of undecideds, but secondly because we've had multiple polls from high quality pollsters that show Biden with net favorable numbers.

Also what’s up with the GCB? Why is it only D+4?

Possibly some people beginning to be convinced that Biden will win and hedging against one-party control?

[WD]

Biden's favorables are bad, but lots of undecideds. 34/46 (20% undecided?) to Trump's 39/54.

Yeah, I was watching MSNBC and they were talking about this number. It kind of feels like an outlier. Firstly because of the huge amount of undecideds, but secondly because we've had multiple polls from high quality pollsters that show Biden with net favorable numbers.

Also what’s up with the GCB? Why is it only D+4?

Possibly some people beginning to be convinced that Biden will win and hedging against one-party control?

There’s also a good chance that it’s an outlier.

[Roll Roons]

Biden's favorables are bad, but lots of undecideds. 34/46 (20% undecided?) to Trump's 39/54.

Yeah, I was watching MSNBC and they were talking about this number. It kind of feels like an outlier. Firstly because of the huge amount of undecideds, but secondly because we've had multiple polls from high quality pollsters that show Biden with net favorable numbers.

Also what’s up with the GCB? Why is it only D+4?

Possibly some people beginning to be convinced that Biden will win and hedging against one-party control?

There’s also a good chance that it’s an outlier.

It's hard to say. I know this is a bit old, but Monmouth did this poll of New Jersey in April: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_042320/.

Democrats were leading the generic House ballot by 12, despite Biden leading Trump by 16. Could very well be something to watch.

[wbrocks67]

The topline seems very normal, but there are more than a few outliers:

- I don't for a second buy that Biden's favorable score somehow plummeted from -1 last month to -12 now, or that his favorability score is nearly in the *20s* and almost as bad as Trumps. Also, 20% don't have any feeling? Was this like a "positive / neutral / negative" thing? If so, normal neutral people may have picked that option? Because that makes no sense whatsoever. He went up in the poll but he's at 34% favorable/positive?

- The GCB... so Biden was up 7 last time and the GCB was 11, but now Biden is 11, and the GCB plummets to 4? Total outlier. Also, I don't like how they ask the question. People are weird, you should ask them about which candidate they will pick, not which party you want to be in control. That could give weird results. The GCB as far as we've seen in the averages and the YouGov weekly polls has been steady as a rock for MONTHS (years), so I don't buy that it would drop that much.

- Also, lastly, it appears that no one is able to properly poll Hispanics this election season. Q-pac has Biden +10. This has Biden +45. One of the YouGov polls had like +30/40 and the other had +10.

[G_Master]

Holy s**t. My mom came into my room to bring me a plate of chicken nuggets and I literally screamed at her and hit the plate of chicken nuggets out of her hand. She started yelling and swearing at me and I slammed the door on her. I'm so happy right now I don't know what to do. I didn't mean to do that to my mom but I'm literally in shock from the results tonight. I feel like I'm going to explode.

I LOL’d