I don't believe these double digit leads until I start seeing some polls asking how many people are actually going to show up if the pandemic continues to worsen.
There is this thing called "vote-by-mail".
Have you heard of it?
A lot of key states have Republican courts and legislatures--you think they're going to actually allow people to vote without having to risk their lives in the process?
So the only state that is worrisome here, is Texas.
Would this be a fair statement?
1.) In terms of the Presidential Election...
Don't know enough about some of the down-ballot races in TN, MS, & LA for State House & State Senate Races.
Obviously TX is the "Big Enchilada" here bcs of not only the PRES race, but also competitive down-ballot US House Races, a theoretically possible competitive US-SEN race where Biden Coattails might be enough to make a difference, as well as obviously TX State Legislature Races in a redistricting cycle...
2.) A secondary concern of mine (Although I am a big supporter of VbM in the state of Oregon which first introduced automatic VbM), is that for many voters new to the process, they might not be aware of their specific state requirements when it comes to envelope signatures, date by which it needs to be received by their respective election authorities, etc....
In theory this could result in an even higher number of invalid ballots than in a traditional paper ballot / voting machine model (Some of the % numbers of invalid ballots in the KY DEM SEN PRIM shocked me as an Oregonian).
3.) Another concern I have (Which I have always had with the Oregon VbM model) is the idea that voters have to buy a stamp in order to vote.
This almost is a form of a "poll tax",
(especially in an era where many people don't even have stamps in the house, and in many cases don't even know where to buy them anymore). I suspect this tends to disproportionately impact impact younger voters, poorer voters, and minority voters (more Democratic leaning constituencies).
Oregon has Mail Drop Boxes all over the place that help eliminate this problem, but I doubt that this is or will be common elsewhere....
4.) All that being said, if I were part of Team Biden and the various State Campaign Leads and State DEM Parties, I would make a specific focus on educating voters about State specific VbM requirements and fork some $$$ and other resources specifically into that effort.
5.) An advantage of VbM is that it also allows a well run campaign to identify which voters have already voted and allows time to directly reach out to voters likely to be supportive precinct by precinct over a period of time to try to get every single voter possible to fill in their ballot.
Ultimately the whole VbM battle might well go to the campaign and State Organizations best able to adapt to the new reality, and at this point in many States not familiar with this method of voting, that advantage will go to the organization which is most effective within this new terrain.
