Quinnipiac: Biden +15

[Cassandra]

Is this a reasonable map for a Biden +15 scenario?

[Cassandra]

Is this a reasonable map for a Biden +15 scenario?

1 sec

Please flip AZ, also AK probably falls, as well

Yeah those were oversights, made those changes just now (hence the 1 sec in the post you quoted)

[Cassandra]

Is this a reasonable map for a Biden +15 scenario?

Yeah, this is fine, maybe MT or KS also fall, or maybe SC doesn't fall, but this is a perfectly fine prediction

I'm really curious what a Biden +20 looks like. What margin do you think is necessary to make all of KS, MO, MS, MT, SC, and UT fall to Biden?

[Cassandra]

What would the Senate look like if this happened?

55-45 at the worst (AZ, CO, NC, ME, IA, GA, MT, AK, KS flip), and possibly even more if crazy things like McConnell losing start to happen.

TX would Flip also imo

I'm curious how far senate candidates will be able to run ahead of the President.

[Cassandra]

If Biden's lead just keeps on widening, maybe there's a realistic (but probably still slim) chance that Trump won't be the Republican nominee after all.

The GOP would never do that. Despite Trump's poor overall numbers, he still galvanizes a large portion of the base - who would likely sit out if he's replaced.

I could imagine Trump removing his name from consideration at the convention, forcing the RNC to nominate Pence, in order to avoid going down in a historic landslide defeat. But that would require him being able to recognize the trouble he's in, and I think he's to narcissistic to realize he's is going to lose (and bigly).

[Cassandra]

If Biden's lead just keeps on widening, maybe there's a realistic (but probably still slim) chance that Trump won't be the Republican nominee after all.

The GOP would never do that. Despite Trump's poor overall numbers, he still galvanizes a large portion of the base - who would likely sit out if he's replaced.

Trump would literally endorse Biden out of spite if the party ejected him from the nomination.

Stripping him of the nomination would result in a 1912 style disaster.

I wonder where (if anywhere) Trump could win as a write-in candidate.

[Cassandra]

More indications every day that the real battlegrounds for this election are Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and the South. Biden needs to go for the kill and neuter as much of Republicans' ability to gerrymander in places like TX and elsewhere that he can (if he flips Texas, the state House probably flips too).

A Dem-drawn Texas congressional map for the 2020s is not something I would have contemplated even a few months ago. Wild.