Quinnipiac: Biden +15

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

More indications every day that the real battlegrounds for this election are Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and the South. Biden needs to go for the kill and neuter as much of Republicans' ability to gerrymander in places like TX and elsewhere that he can (if he flips Texas, the state House probably flips too).

[Mr. Illini]

Keep that foot on the gas pedal!

[Cassandra]

More indications every day that the real battlegrounds for this election are Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and the South. Biden needs to go for the kill and neuter as much of Republicans' ability to gerrymander in places like TX and elsewhere that he can (if he flips Texas, the state House probably flips too).

A Dem-drawn Texas congressional map for the 2020s is not something I would have contemplated even a few months ago. Wild.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

More indications every day that the real battlegrounds for this election are Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and the South. Biden needs to go for the kill and neuter as much of Republicans' ability to gerrymander in places like TX and elsewhere that he can (if he flips Texas, the state House probably flips too).

A Dem-drawn Texas congressional map for the 2020s is not something I would have contemplated even a few months ago. Wild.

It is still entirely off the table. The importance rests in making sure Democrats actually get a seat at the table that's dominated by Republicans. If they can force it to a court-drawn map (which the Congressional map would go to), that would go a long way to preventing massive screwy gerrymanders at least until Republicans win back the state House, which they almost definitely would in 2022 since the people that draw the legislative maps are a commission of statewide elected officials who are all Republicans. Texas Republicans could then attempt a mid-decade gerrymander again, but that might backfire on them, so who knows.

[Storr]

If Biden's lead just keeps on widening, maybe there's a realistic (but probably still slim) chance that Trump won't be the Republican nominee after all.

Nah Trump’s ego won’t allow for that. He’s going to take the GOP down with him.

This is exactly what he did with the USFL.

[wesmoorenerd]

Anything above Biden +12 and we're seeing 413 EVs as an absolute floor. MI, PA, WI, FL, NE-02, AZ, NC, GA, OH, TX, ME-02. Biden +15 is the territory where we could start seeing a handful of SC, AK, MO, IN, MT, KS.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Anything above Biden +12 and we're seeing 413 EVs as an absolute floor. MI, PA, WI, FL, NE-02, AZ, NC, GA, OH, TX, ME-02. Biden +15 is the territory where we could start seeing a handful of SC, AK, MO, IN, MT, KS.

I wonder if Biden could win 2 CDs in NE while still losing the statewide vote.

[VBM]

I wish that we had known before the primaries that Trump would drop like a rock so that way we wouldn’t have to worry about electability

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anything above Biden +12 and we're seeing 413 EVs as an absolute floor. MI, PA, WI, FL, NE-02, AZ, NC, GA, OH, TX, ME-02. Biden +15 is the territory where we could start seeing a handful of SC, AK, MO, IN, MT, KS.

I wonder if Biden could win 2 CDs in NE while still losing the statewide vote.

Winning NE-01 is just barely possible in a Biden landslide.  NE-03 is impossible (Trump won it 74-20).  So yes, it could happen.

EDIT: It's mathematically easy.  Trump won the state by 25, NE-01 by 20, NE-02 by 2, and NE-03 by 54.  Do a uniform swing of 22 points to the left and Biden wins 1 & 2, but loses the state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wish that we had known before the primaries that Trump would drop like a rock so that way we wouldn’t have to worry about electability

A fair point, but Biden was mostly still polling the best then and probably always would have been the one who polled the best, as he is right now.

[ProudModerate2]

I don't believe these double digit leads until I start seeing some polls asking how many people are actually going to show up if the pandemic continues to worsen.

There is this thing called "vote-by-mail".

Have you heard of it?

A lot of key states have Republican courts and legislatures--you think they're going to actually allow people to vote without having to risk their lives in the process?

So the only state that is worrisome here, is Texas.
Would this be a fair statement?

[CookieDamage]

54-40 Biden with 65+

Trump's strongly unfav number at 53%

Trump 9 points underwater with the economy

I mean come on now.

[super6646]

Trump shoud be doing a lot worse rn lol.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump shoud be doing a lot worse rn lol.

Be careful what you are wishing for.

[NOVA Green]

I don't believe these double digit leads until I start seeing some polls asking how many people are actually going to show up if the pandemic continues to worsen.

There is this thing called "vote-by-mail".

Have you heard of it?

A lot of key states have Republican courts and legislatures--you think they're going to actually allow people to vote without having to risk their lives in the process?

So the only state that is worrisome here, is Texas.
Would this be a fair statement?

1.) In terms of the Presidential Election...

Don't know enough about some of the down-ballot races in TN, MS, & LA for State House & State Senate Races.

Obviously TX is the "Big Enchilada" here bcs of not only the PRES race, but also competitive down-ballot US House Races, a theoretically possible competitive US-SEN race where Biden Coattails might be enough to make a difference, as well as obviously TX State Legislature Races in a redistricting cycle...

2.) A secondary concern of mine (Although I am a big supporter of VbM in the state of Oregon which first introduced automatic VbM), is that for many voters new to the process, they might not be aware of their specific state requirements when it comes to envelope signatures, date by which it needs to be received by their respective election authorities, etc....

In theory this could result in an even higher number of invalid ballots than in a traditional paper ballot / voting machine model (Some of the % numbers of invalid ballots in the KY DEM SEN PRIM shocked me as an Oregonian).

3.) Another concern I have (Which I have always had with the Oregon VbM model) is the idea that voters have to buy a stamp in order to vote.

This almost is a form of a "poll tax", (especially in an era where many people don't even have stamps in the house, and in many cases don't even know where to buy them anymore).

I suspect this tends to disproportionately impact impact younger voters, poorer voters, and minority voters (more Democratic leaning constituencies).

Oregon has Mail Drop Boxes all over the place that help eliminate this problem, but I doubt that this is or will be common elsewhere....

4.) All that being said, if I were part of Team Biden and the various State Campaign Leads and State DEM Parties, I would make a specific focus on educating voters about State specific VbM requirements and fork some $$$ and other resources specifically into that effort.

5.) An advantage of VbM is that it also allows a well run campaign to identify which voters have already voted and allows time to directly reach out to voters likely to be supportive precinct by precinct over a period of time to try to get every single voter possible to fill in their ballot.

Ultimately the whole VbM battle might well go to the campaign and State Organizations best able to adapt to the new reality, and at this point in many States not familiar with this method of voting, that advantage will go to the organization which is most effective within this new terrain.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Poll is flawed, today's poll shows an 8 pt lead for Biden

[Use Your Illusion]

When are we gonna get some Ohio polls already??? I'm Jonesing the  out for some Buckeye state analysis. If Trump is trailing by double digits there we can safely assume his campaign is DOA. The whole "Republicans can't win without Ohio" thing isn't changing in 2020.

[Brittain33]

When are we gonna get some Ohio polls already??? I'm Jonesing the  out for some Buckeye state analysis. If Trump is trailing by double digits there we can safely assume his campaign is DOA. The whole "Republicans can't win without Ohio" thing isn't changing in 2020.

Unfortunately there are no statewide races in OH to spin off a presidential poll...

[Pericles]

I wish that we had known before the primaries that Trump would drop like a rock so that way we wouldn’t have to worry about electability

The scale of the defeat for Trump and the Republicans is important too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wish that we had known before the primaries that Trump would drop like a rock so that way we wouldn’t have to worry about electability

The scale of the defeat for Trump and the Republicans is important too.

These are RV polls not LV polls and 500 EC votes and Daines is leading in MT by 2 isnt in the cards

[Progressive Pessimist]

Poll is flawed, today's poll shows an 8 pt lead for Biden

"Only" eight.

[Use Your Illusion]

When are we gonna get some Ohio polls already??? I'm Jonesing the  out for some Buckeye state analysis. If Trump is trailing by double digits there we can safely assume his campaign is DOA. The whole "Republicans can't win without Ohio" thing isn't changing in 2020.

Unfortunately there are no statewide races in OH to spin off a presidential poll...

Sure but it's not like a state as important as OH can't be polled. From May to June there was about 3 of them alone.

[Ferguson97]

I wish that we had known before the primaries that Trump would drop like a rock so that way we wouldn’t have to worry about electability

Eh I still prefer Biden over most other candidates

[BaldEagle1991]

I don't believe these double digit leads until I start seeing some polls asking how many people are actually going to show up if the pandemic continues to worsen.

There is this thing called "vote-by-mail".

Have you heard of it?

A lot of key states have Republican courts and legislatures--you think they're going to actually allow people to vote without having to risk their lives in the process?

So the only state that is worrisome here, is Texas.
Would this be a fair statement?

One thing about Texas is that vote-by-mail is almost outlawed here, even if there was no pandemic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Poll is flawed, today's poll shows an 8 pt lead for Biden

"Only" eight.

Biden isnt winning by 15 pts if Daines is beating Bullock in MT and Sullivan is beating Gross by 15 pts