Quinnipiac: Biden +15

[Cassandra]

Is this a reasonable map for a Biden +15 scenario?

Yeah, this is fine, maybe MT or KS also fall, or maybe SC doesn't fall, but this is a perfectly fine prediction

I'm really curious what a Biden +20 looks like. What margin do you think is necessary to make all of KS, MO, MS, MT, SC, and UT fall to Biden?

[WD]

I mean, we literally saw NYT and CNN both with +14 leads too, so it's not like this is insanely outlier-ish.

even if it's a bit too rosy, people should've known better than to put stock in all of those low quality online polls over the last few days.

guess we'll see what NBC says at 5pm

Huh? NBC is doing a poll.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Is this the most Biden has ever led Trump thus far?

[BudgieForce]

I mean, we literally saw NYT and CNN both with +14 leads too, so it's not like this is insanely outlier-ish.

even if it's a bit too rosy, people should've known better than to put stock in all of those low quality online polls over the last few days.

guess we'll see what NBC says at 5pm

Huh? NBC is doing a poll.

Yep. Out in less than an hour.

[soundchaser]

What would the Senate look like if this happened?

55-45 at the worst (AZ, CO, NC, ME, IA, GA, MT, AK, KS flip), and possibly even more if crazy things like McConnell losing start to happen.

[S019]

Is this a reasonable map for a Biden +15 scenario?

Yeah, this is fine, maybe MT or KS also fall, or maybe SC doesn't fall, but this is a perfectly fine prediction

I'm really curious what a Biden +20 looks like. What margin do you think is necessary to make all of KS, MI, MO, MT, SC, and UT fall to Biden?

KS and MT could fall at 15, SC is inelastic, so my best guess is anywhere from 12 to 17, depending on turnout, MO and UT probably require around 20.

[psychprofessor]

you hate to see it

[wbrocks67]

Also, this poll underscores one big thing - Trump is literally getting severely negative marks on EVERY - SINGLE - SUBJECT

I mean, look at those #s for reopening schools. or the virus. or the russian bounty story. or being honest. i mean, it's every single thing in the news, he's on the wrong side.

[WD]

What would the Senate look like if this happened?

55-45 at the worst (AZ, CO, NC, ME, IA, GA, MT, AK, KS flip), and possibly even more if crazy things like McConnell losing start to happen.

TX would Flip also imo

[wbrocks67]

Somehow this poll only brought Biden up to +8.8 on the 538 tracker. That Rasmussen poll really f**ked with the whole thing

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Good for Trump.

"This is the jobs bump."

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

And suddenly the minor drop mostly in lower-quality polls over the last two or three days seems like it was probably just noise all along.

[Cassandra]

What would the Senate look like if this happened?

55-45 at the worst (AZ, CO, NC, ME, IA, GA, MT, AK, KS flip), and possibly even more if crazy things like McConnell losing start to happen.

TX would Flip also imo

I'm curious how far senate candidates will be able to run ahead of the President.

[VAR]

Is this the most Biden has ever led Trump thus far?

He led Trump by 16 points in August of last year. That one was Quinnipiac too.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden is up 17 with white women. Wowzers.

[WD]

What would the Senate look like if this happened?

55-45 at the worst (AZ, CO, NC, ME, IA, GA, MT, AK, KS flip), and possibly even more if crazy things like McConnell losing start to happen.

TX would Flip also imo

I'm curious how far senate candidates will be able to run ahead of the President.

Ticket Splitting is at an all time low. Not to mention that the Senate GOP is tied to the hip with Trump. Biden+15 would reduce them to 41-43 seats.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is this a reasonable map for a Biden +15 scenario?

I think MO would go for Biden in a +15 win as that would mean that not only have current trends accelerated in favor of the Dems but the trends that are favoring the GOP go back to 2012 maybe 2008 levels

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Is this a reasonable map for a Biden +15 scenario?

If anything I'd say it's a bit too cautious. I'd put Ohio over 50% and Washington state over 60% for a national Biden +15 map.

[jeron]

The crosstabs are a bit weird though. Trump down 6 among whites and 17 among white women, but Biden is leading by 10 among hispanics

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Biden is up 17 with white women. Wowzers.

I've mentioned her before and it's totally anecdotal, but the elderly lady who lives across the street from my parents hasn't voted for a Democrat since Kennedy (IIRC).  She's planning on voting for Biden ("I like Joe Biden", "Trump lies and lies", etc. etc.)

Again, purely anecdotal and not meant to indicate a trend by itself, but when we combine that along with Biden's polling numbers, I have to think there are more like her.  

[Illiniwek]

[here2view]

Does this include the Goya bump?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1283490391745089536

[Pericles]

If Biden's lead just keeps on widening, maybe there's a realistic (but probably still slim) chance that Trump won't be the Republican nominee after all.

[WD]

If Biden's lead just keeps on widening, maybe there's a realistic (but probably still slim) chance that Trump won't be the Republican nominee after all.

Nah Trump’s ego won’t allow for that. He’s going to take the GOP down with him.