ABC News/Washington Post: Biden+15 (RV), Biden+10 (LV)

[pbrower2a]

It really should not make me nervous that Biden's lead is "only" 10 points when you shift to LVs yet it does.

Ten points is a gigantic lead this late. We have three and a half months to go.

OK, time may drag this year because we are missing so much this year.

[Alben Barkley]

If this kind of poll came out with Trump in the lead, let alone if it was on the heels of multiple quality polls with similar findings, he would be priced at like 95 cents for re-election on PredictIt. Everyone should take advantage NOW of the idiot doomers scarred by 2016 and the cultist loons who will blind themselves to reality rather than accept fact that Der Fuhrer is going to lose badly. BUY BUY BUY! It’s a bull market boys!

[n1240]

If this kind of poll came out with Trump in the lead, let alone if it was on the heels of multiple quality polls with similar findings, he would be priced at like 95 cents for re-election on PredictIt. Everyone should take advantage NOW of the idiot doomers scarred by 2016 and the cultist loons who will blind themselves to reality rather than accept fact that Der Fuhrer is going to lose badly. BUY BUY BUY! It’s a bull market boys!

It's really weird people think Trump has some sort of electoral prowess because of 2016. He was running against one of the most unpopular nominees of all time and only won by the narrowest of margins due to a black swan event a week before the election. Now he's running against someone much more popular who is consistently polling over 50%, is one of the most unpopular incumbents ever whilst running a reelection campaign, and is constantly taking unpopular positions on the most sentient issue in the country and is overwhelming seen as a massive failure at handling it. None of Trump's attacks over the past three months on Biden have stuck and he and his campaign are constantly flailing trying to find something that works. Scenarios where Trump gains significantly in the polls over the next three and a half months are running under the assumption that he is a skillful politician, when in reality he is not.

[Oryxslayer]

If Biden is actually up 6 in the entire South, he is winning Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina in his sleep. He is also winning Texas and South Carolina. States like Mississippi and Louisiana would be low single digit wins for Trump at best.

If he’s winning the Midwest by 17, he is not only winning Michigan and Wisconsin and NE-02, he’s also winning Ohio, Iowa, and quite possibly Indiana and Missouri. Maybe even Kansas.

If he’s winning the Northeast by 30, he is winning every single state in the region by double digits including Pennsylvania and New Hampshire as well as ME-02.

It's important to remember that the census regions for the South, which is probably what the poll uses just for consistencies sake, includes Maryland, Delaware, DC, Kentucky, and West Virginia in the Southern region along alongside the old confederacy. However, this shouldn't dissuade from the crosstabs significance, though one should always remember that they are crosstabs.

In conclusion, if this poll plays out in November than Biden would probably get somewhere around 410 EVs. The pessimist would remind everyone that there are still 3 months until election day, and things could change. The realist recognizes that the election is secondary news to Coronavirus and it's correlated issues (civil unrest and BLM, Schools, Masks, economic recession, job loss, etc). Trump's reelection is tied to the crises resolving themselves, which at this point appears unlikely.

[Alben Barkley]

If Biden is actually up 6 in the entire South, he is winning Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina in his sleep. He is also winning Texas and South Carolina. States like Mississippi and Louisiana would be low single digit wins for Trump at best.

If he’s winning the Midwest by 17, he is not only winning Michigan and Wisconsin and NE-02, he’s also winning Ohio, Iowa, and quite possibly Indiana and Missouri. Maybe even Kansas.

If he’s winning the Northeast by 30, he is winning every single state in the region by double digits including Pennsylvania and New Hampshire as well as ME-02.

It's important to remember that the census regions for the South, which is probably what the poll uses just for consistencies sake, includes Maryland, Delaware, DC, Kentucky, and West Virginia in the Southern region along alongside the old confederacy. However, this shouldn't dissuade from the crosstabs significance, though one should always remember that they are crosstabs.

In conclusion, if this poll plays out in November than Biden would probably get somewhere around 410 EVs. The pessimist would remind everyone that there are still 3 months until election day, and things could change. The realist recognizes that the election is secondary news to Coronavirus and it's correlated issues (civil unrest and BLM, Schools, Masks, economic recession, job loss, etc). Trump's reelection is tied to the crises resolving themselves, which at this point appears unlikely.

OK, let’s be generous to Trump and say this may be understating his support in “the South” as defined by the Census Bureau. In that case maybe South Carolina is a toss-up instead of a clear Biden win, but he still definitely takes FL/GA/NC and probably TX. Because big leads in places like DC might more or less cancel out big deficits in places like OK, a Biden +6 win throughout the South would still be very damning for Trump, but maybe not quite as damning as if you limited it solely to the Confederate states.

But it STILL would be HORRENDOUS for him to be down 17 in the Midwest, as the Census Bureau also includes all the plains states there. So again, that means Biden is likely winning not only MI/WI/NE-02/OH/IA, but also quite plausibly IN/MO/KS. Which, by the way, fits with both public polls showing Biden ahead in MO and reports of Trump internals showing him down in KS.

And as for the Northeast... We’re talking LBJ ‘64 annihilation here if Biden is truly ahead by 30 points in the region.

I am aware of the problems with relying on crosstabs too much. I’m just saying, IF we were to take these numbers at face value, they would be indicative of an absolute electoral bloodbath for Trump.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Biden is actually up 6 in the entire South, he is winning Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina in his sleep. He is also winning Texas and South Carolina. States like Mississippi and Louisiana would be low single digit wins for Trump at best.

If he’s winning the Midwest by 17, he is not only winning Michigan and Wisconsin and NE-02, he’s also winning Ohio, Iowa, and quite possibly Indiana and Missouri. Maybe even Kansas.

If he’s winning the Northeast by 30, he is winning every single state in the region by double digits including Pennsylvania and New Hampshire as well as ME-02.

It's important to remember that the census regions for the South, which is probably what the poll uses just for consistencies sake, includes Maryland, Delaware, DC, Kentucky, and West Virginia in the Southern region along alongside the old confederacy. However, this shouldn't dissuade from the crosstabs significance, though one should always remember that they are crosstabs.

In conclusion, if this poll plays out in November than Biden would probably get somewhere around 410 EVs. The pessimist would remind everyone that there are still 3 months until election day, and things could change. The realist recognizes that the election is secondary news to Coronavirus and it's correlated issues (civil unrest and BLM, Schools, Masks, economic recession, job loss, etc). Trump's reelection is tied to the crises resolving themselves, which at this point appears unlikely.

OK, let’s be generous to Trump and say this may be understating his support in “the South” as defined by the Census Bureau. In that case maybe South Carolina is a toss-up instead of a clear Biden win, but he still definitely takes FL/GA/NC and probably TX. Because big leads in places like DC might more or less cancel out big deficits in places like OK, a Biden +6 win throughout the South would still be very damning for Trump, but maybe not quite as damning as if you limited it solely to the Confederate states.

But it STILL would be HORRENDOUS for him to be down 17 in the Midwest, as the Census Bureau also includes all the plains states there. So again, that means Biden is likely winning not only MI/WI/NE-02/OH/IA, but also quite plausibly IN/MO/KS. Which, by the way, fits with both public polls showing Biden ahead in MO and reports of Trump internals showing him down in KS.

And as for the Northeast... We’re talking LBJ ‘64 annihilation here if Biden is truly ahead by 30 points in the region.

I am aware of the problems with relying on crosstabs too much. I’m just saying, IF we were to take these numbers at face value, they would be indicative of an absolute electoral bloodbath for Trump.

Just nitpicking here, but DC is nowhere near enough to cancel out Oklahoma's Republicanness. Clinton won DC by 270,000 votes and Trump won Oklahoma by about 530,000 votes.

The 11 states of the Old Confederacy voted for Trump by about 9%, identical to Texas's margin. The expanded definition of the south including Oklahoma, DC, Maryland, West Virginia, and Kentucky moves the margin only 0.2% to the left.

If Biden is doing anywhere near this well in the South, he is easily carrying Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina in addition to obviously Virginia.

[Ferguson97]

MUH JOBS BUMP
MUH STATUE BUMP
MUH RIOT BUMP
MUH GOYA BUMP

I've noticed that 2016's "surely this will be the end of Trump's campaign" has turned into 2020's "surely this will be the Trump bump"

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm starting to think that the only reason high quality polls are using LV models this early is to give the race some semblance of competitiveness. Ten points is still an impressive lead but it surely isn't as intimidating as fifteen.

[BlueSwan]

Not liking the 5%-point differenec between RV and LV. Doesn't seem right this year.

[BidenHarris2020]

Hot damn!

[Rand]

Parscale bump. Can’t wait to see the Chris Wallace bump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1284868169392361472

[President Johnson]

I wonder why the long expected tightening will actually happen. If the numbers continue to be this way throughout August and into September, I have a hard time seeing this shifting. It could happen if Trump hasn't such moron and capable of changing his attitude, but who really believes he will get his act together? I don't see it. Still not projecting it, though Joe Biden could actually be on track to landslide victory we haven't seen since 1988.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The October surprise will be Bob Barr announcing the indictments of Hillary Clinton, Joe and Hunter Biden and James Comey.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just wait until the Portland bump! That's when we'll get a real idea of how much Trump is leading by! You can't trust a poll by the failing Washington Post and their owner, Jeff Bezos!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I feel we're gonna need a megathread to catalog every "Trump Bump" he's supposed to have gotten and everyone thinks he should've gotten

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1285204642788450304