PA-Monmouth: Biden+13%

[Ferguson97]

Holy moly....

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

"Many anticipate a secret Trump vote" really means "People who didn't pay close attention in 2016 don't realize that that race swung extremely hard in the last 10 days due to the Comey letter"

I think part of the reason things like that exist (as in people pushing a "quiet Trump vote") is that the election of 2016 was a bizarre one.  And in an effort to understand it, news media and pundits push forth the notion that there was one singular element that made it such a bizarre election rather than considering a bunch of different factors. 

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

PA's result was pretty much written in stone when 2018 accelerated 2016 trends to such a large degree. There's simply way more suburban voters out there for Dems to expand their support than rural/WWC voters for Trump in this state.

[Use Your Illusion]

The numbers seem maybe bit high but it's not like I didn't expect Biden to do well. Biden probably wins PA at +2.5 with room to spare. How much depends Trump shattering the turnout records again. But that independent skew is NO BUENO bro. You wanna win PA you gotta win them and it looks like Biden is on the way

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1283416786432659456

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1283392028605403144

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1283392028605403144

Wait, Monmouth is doing ANOTHER PA poll right after this one?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1283392028605403144

Wait, Monmouth is doing ANOTHER PA poll right after this one?

No, this is the current poll

[wbrocks67]

The race among high quality pollsters has been pretty stagnant, actually.

Fox in April: Biden +8
NYT/Siena in June: Biden +10
Monmouth in July: Biden +10/13

[Horus]

A majority of respondents think there are a lot of shy Trump voters. I would tend to agree.

[here2view]

Lean D

[Orser67]

Looks like PA moved (very slightly) to the left of WI in 538's tracker today

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

REPS: Trump 84-12
INDIES: Biden 54-33
DEMS: Biden 93-1

MALES: Trump 47-45
FEMALES: Biden 60-34

18-49: Biden 60-29
50-64: Trump 56-43
65+: Biden 52-42

WHITES: Biden 48-46
NON-WHITES: Biden 76-16

WHITE NO DEGREE: 55-39 Trump
WHITE DEGREE: 61-34 Biden

DAMN, look at that lead with women.

For all the talk of "demographic shift" we've heard, the biggest shift I'm seeing in polls (relative to 2016 and before) is women leaving the GOP in droves. Women have leaned Dem for decades, but a 28-point gender gap is unprecedented. Women are slightly over half the population, and usually turn out in bigger numbers than men.

Also, what's with the age breakdown? 18-49 in one category, then the next one is 50-64? What a weird increment to use.

Biden leading among whites in a 2016 Trump state is also big, considering Trump won PA whites by double digits last time around.

[Gass3268]

A majority of respondents think there are a lot of shy Trump voters. I would tend to agree.

There has never been a "shy" Trump vote, not even in 2016. In 2016 a number number of folks said they were undecided and they broke for Trump because they hated him more than Clinton. It's not that difficult.

[psychprofessor]

they may not be saying this publicly, but the trump campaign will need to pull out of PA and MI to focus on the absolute must win states of WI, FL, AZ , NC and GA. Trying to hold on to PA and MI is futile.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

they may not be saying this publicly, but the trump campaign will need to pull out of PA and MI to focus on the absolute must win states of WI, FL, AZ , NC and GA. Trying to hold on to PA and MI is futile.

No. That's leaving too much to the other states. MI is significantly further gone than PA (maybe even further than MN and NH) according to public polling. PA is still a very strong lean D and therefore a potential tipping point state.

[NOVA Green]

REPS: Trump 84-12
INDIES: Biden 54-33
DEMS: Biden 93-1

MALES: Trump 47-45
FEMALES: Biden 60-34

18-49: Biden 60-29
50-64: Trump 56-43
65+: Biden 52-42

WHITES: Biden 48-46
NON-WHITES: Biden 76-16

WHITE NO DEGREE: 55-39 Trump
WHITE DEGREE: 61-34 Biden

DAMN, look at that lead with women.

For all the talk of "demographic shift" we've heard, the biggest shift I'm seeing in polls (relative to 2016 and before) is women leaving the GOP in droves. Women have leaned Dem for decades, but a 28-point gender gap is unprecedented. Women are slightly over half the population, and usually turn out in bigger numbers than men.

Also, what's with the age breakdown? 18-49 in one category, then the next one is 50-64? What a weird increment to use.

Biden leading among whites in a 2016 Trump state is also big, considering Trump won PA whites by double digits last time around.

Agreed that is a weird increment....

The age numbers are still interesting, especially considering that 65+ is roughly 22% of PA VAP, 50-64 is 22% of VAP and 18-49 is something like 56% of VAP.

[President Johnson]

Great poll, especially SCRANTON JOE over 50%.

The party crosstabs seem a little strange to me. Joe Biden gets 12% of Republicans? And Trump just 1% from Democrats? Correct me if I'm wrong here, but hasn't Pennsylvania huge numbers of registered (ancestral) Democrats, who are socially more conservative and tend to vote Republican at the presidential level?

Also, if Trump gets blown out this massive among Independents, he's done. A result like this would actually return the state to 2008 levels rather than 2012, what I previously expected.

[Roblox]

Interesting that democrats are only leading on the generic congressional ballot 49-45 in this poll.

[Progressive Pessimist]

*Spit take*

[emailking]

A majority of respondents think there are a lot of shy Trump voters. I would tend to agree.

They may be shy to their peers, but probably not to pollsters.

[Hammy]

Pick a freaking turnout model instead of giving 3 different results.

It's a fair method with the pandemic, everything has to be taken into account this election.

According to RCP, Biden now leads Trump 49.3% - 41.5% (+7.8 )

At this time in 2016, Clinton lead Trump 39.3% - 38.3% (+1)

Just insane how high undecideds were last election.

There simply isn't enough room for Trump to win if things stay like this--even Monmouth's August 2016 poll (The earliest one they did) underestimated Trump by 8%--but with 15% either undecided or going to third party--a similar underpolling would still put Biden at 51-49.

[Adam Griffin]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Biden isnt ahead by 13 pts in PA, Wolf didnt beat Corbett by that much, it was 9, it's a Biden plus 5 lead

[Yoda]

they may not be saying this publicly, but the trump campaign will need to pull out of PA and MI to focus on the absolute must win states of WI, FL, AZ , NC and GA. Trying to hold on to PA and MI is futile.

I'm not sure I agree with this simply b/c of the fact that the trump campaign has mountains of money to burn.