TX-24: DCCC poll Biden +6
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  TX-24: DCCC poll Biden +6
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Author Topic: TX-24: DCCC poll Biden +6  (Read 662 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: July 14, 2020, 10:45:49 PM »

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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2020, 10:47:39 PM »

How did Beto do here in 2018?
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2020, 10:48:49 PM »

Was Trump +6 in 2016. Dem Internal so salt to taste.
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swf541
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2020, 10:48:55 PM »


51-49 Beto +2 in 2018 according to wiki
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2020, 10:49:18 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2020, 11:57:15 PM by Gass3268 »

Not shocking:

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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2020, 10:49:30 PM »


51-49 Beto +2 in 2018 according to wiki

Encouraging.
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Pericles
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2020, 10:50:30 PM »

This is a Trump +6 district. I'm guessing that there are significant trends going on, as a uniform swing would have Biden up by 14 points nationwide.


Beto won it by 3 points. So looking at it that way it implies a pure tossup Texas (maybe the swing here from Beto to Biden is greater than Texas as a whole due to trends so I could see Trump winning Texas very narrowly).
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Gracile
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2020, 10:56:45 PM »


O'Rourke won 51.3 - 47.8, or about 6% to the left of the state - which would put this poll in line with many of the close statewide Texas polls we've been seeing. This seat also voted a fair bit to the left of the state in most other races in 2018, so it should be one of the easiest seats for Biden and Valenzuela to pick up based on those fundamentals.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2020, 12:07:53 AM »

Even though it's majority white, this district is almost 100% an urban center, which illustrates just how much Trump has alienated everyone outside of the white rural communities.
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Pericles
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2020, 12:12:46 AM »

Even though it's majority white, this district is almost 100% an urban center, which illustrates just how much Trump has alienated everyone outside of the white rural communities.

I heard it had already become majority non-white, but I don't have the proof for that on me.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2020, 12:51:11 AM »

This seat is Lean/Likely D for both President and House. Republican chances are overrated here, similar to GA-07
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S019
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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2020, 02:00:27 AM »

This seat is Lean/Likely D for both President and House. Republican chances are overrated here, similar to GA-07

I wouldn't go that far, I'd put it at Tilt/Lean D, I doubt Trump or Van Duyne win here, but this isn't at GA-07 levels yet. But with these numbers, Biden is definitely close to flipping TX, which seems to be the conventional wisdom now, anyways.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2020, 02:06:02 AM »

This seat is Lean/Likely D for both President and House. Republican chances are overrated here, similar to GA-07

I wouldn't go that far, I'd put it at Tilt/Lean D, I doubt Trump or Van Duyne win here, but this isn't at GA-07 levels yet. But with these numbers, Biden is definitely close to flipping TX, which seems to be the conventional wisdom now, anyways.

TX-24 and GA-07 are pretty much the same seats to a T as far as political makeup. Both were Trump +6 and in fact, Beto actually won TX-24 by more than Abrams won GA-07
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