Question about Ross Perot

[Lincoln Republican]

In 1992, Ross Perot was an independent candidate for President.  Although he failed to win any electoral votes, he did receive 18.91% of the popular vote, a remarkable achievement for an independent candidate.

Perot announced in 1992 that he would run for President if supporters could get his name on the ballot in all 50 states.  He became a candidate in early 1992.  He withdrew from the election in the summer of 1992.  He re-entered the election on October 1, 1992.

Perot asked Vice Admiral James Stockdale, a Vietnam War hero, and highly decorated officer, although without political experience, to be his Vice Presidential candidate in March, 1992.  Perot told Stockdale that he would be a placeholder on the ticket until he found a running mate to run in the election.  Stockdale thought that his name would be removed from the ballot when Perot withdrew from the race in summer 1992.  Stockdale was left on as the running mate, and his debate performance was deemed by the press to be poor.

Question

If Perot had remained in the race from the start when he entered, early 1992, and had campaigned hard throughout the election, instead of withdrawing in summer 1992 and re-entering in October, 1992, and if he he had picked a politically experienced Vice Presidential candidate, skilled at debating,  how would this have effected the outcome of the 1992 election?  A Vice Presidential candidate like Jean Kirkpatrick, for example, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. 1981-85, whose name was mentioned at the time as a possible running mate for Perot.

Please discuss.

Thank you.

[WalterMitty]

honestly, i dont think it would have made much of a difference.  had perot stayed in the race from start to finish and picked a more polished running mate, he might have gotten 20%+ and picked off a state like maine, montana, or alaska.

[jokerman]

honestly, i dont think it would have made much of a difference.  had perot stayed in the race from start to finish and picked a more polished running mate, he might have gotten 20%+ and picked off a state like maine, montana, or alaska.

I'm not so sure.  Before Perot dropped out of the running he was running near the 30's.

[Lincoln Republican]

honestly, i dont think it would have made much of a difference.  had perot stayed in the race from start to finish and picked a more polished running mate, he might have gotten 20%+ and picked off a state like maine, montana, or alaska.

I'm not so sure.  Before Perot dropped out of the running he was running near the 30's.

It's true.  Perot at that time was polling roughly even with George HW Bush and Bill Clinton.  He was espousing such policies as balancing the federal budget, and enacting electronic direct democracy via "electronic town halls."
Many of his policy pronouncements were interesting and appealing to many voters.

Likely, however, as the election drew near, you would see Republican and Democratic supporters drifting more and more back to their political homes.

Although it would be interesting to see a map of how the election would have turned out had all three candidates been polling around even numbers on election day, say Clinton 35%, Bush 34%, Perot 31%.

Anyone want to hazard a map?   

[WalterMitty]

perot was a nutter.  it wasnt just his dropping out and reentering.  it wasnt just about picking an unpolished running mate (who was a true american patriot by the way.  certainly far superior to quayle or gore in that department)

perot also said things like george bush was going to sabotage his daughter's wedding and that the black panthers broke in his house.

[George W. Hobbes]

Nah.  But it was the first, and only so far, time I won as H. Ross in PF.

[Nym90]

I don't think that being in the campaign longer would have helped Perot; he had many good ideas but also several wacky ones, and prolonged exposure in the campaign would have made people more aware of this fact.

[PBrunsel]

We can not forget that H. Ross Perot was...well H. Ross Perot. He said that he was always on the watch for the Vietcong and was going to auction off Air Force One. There is no way he could have won, with or without the ears!

[adam]

Considering that  the polls from before Perot dropped out had him at 45%...I think it would have made a great difference. I respect Ross Perot a good deal, I was watching the 92' debate clips last night, he was truly genuine and likable. Anywho, if he'd stayed in...I think he would had a legitiment chance to.

[Nym90]

Considering that  the polls from before Perot dropped out had him at 45%...I think it would have made a great difference. I respect Ross Perot a good deal, I was watching the 92' debate clips last night, he was truly genuine and likable. Anywho, if he'd stayed in...I think he would had a legitiment chance to.

Yes, Perot's folksy manner played well in debates, but I don't think that most people who voted for him even knew that much about him as much as they were voting against the two major parties. Staying in the race longer may have actually hurt him as people got to know him better.

I liked Perot too, but the guy definitely was a bit on the nutty side at times with many of his comments. If he were a truly serious candidate the media and the other candidates would have picked up on this; Clinton and Bush basically only attacked each other and no one really criticized Perot all that much because he wasn't a serious threat to actually win. This helped his numbers.