FL-Gravis (non-OANN): Biden +10

[Person Man]

This is what I would expect if the FDP wasn’t run by idiots.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

A Gravis poll conducted at the same time in July 2016 had it a tie in FL.

The RCP average at that time was also a tie, now it is B+6.

I'm still a bit weary of FL polls because of what happened in 2018, but a higher turnout than in the midterms should make the polls more accurate.

[President Johnson]

So much winning...

I'd take Gravis with a huge grain of salt, but even as an outlier confirms Joe Biden is well positioned in Florida, a state very hard hit by the pandemic (would be in the top 5 worldwide as a separate country).

[Use Your Illusion]

Trash this poll... FL hasn't been +10 for ANY presidential candidate in 32 years.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trash this poll... FL hasn't been +10 for ANY presidential candidate in 32 years.

Don't trash it.  If Biden is ahead by 6-7 points in the state, as both the 538 and RCP averages have at present, an occasional +10 or so (and some correspondingly lower ones) are to be expected.

[Use Your Illusion]

Trash this poll... FL hasn't been +10 for ANY presidential candidate in 32 years.

Don't trash it.  If Biden is ahead by 6-7 points in the state, as both the 538 and RCP averages have at present, an occasional +10 or so (and some correspondingly lower ones) are to be expected.

I'd abide by the law of averages if +5 wasn't rare either. I think the actual truth is FL is tilt Trump/tossup but by less than 50,000 votes. This is going to sound batsh**t crazy but I'd give anything for more OANN polls just so I can gauge the true depth. of the state's conservative counterweight. Low single digit leads blatantly sampled in Trump territory will tell us everything we need to know because +10 amongst heavy Dem areas should be expected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trash this poll... FL hasn't been +10 for ANY presidential candidate in 32 years.

Don't trash it.  If Biden is ahead by 6-7 points in the state, as both the 538 and RCP averages have at present, an occasional +10 or so (and some correspondingly lower ones) are to be expected.

I'd abide by the law of averages if +5 wasn't rare either. I think the actual truth is FL is tilt Trump/tossup but by less than 50,000 votes. This is going to sound batsh**t crazy but I'd give anything for more OANN polls just so I can gauge the true depth. of the state's conservative counterweight. Low single digit leads blatantly sampled in Trump territory will tell us everything we need to know because +10 amongst heavy Dem areas should be expected

No it's not Tilt Trump, Covid 19 has affected the state and DeSantis  is so unpopular.  2016 isnt here forever

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Looks like Gravis is cooking the goos for OANN.

Or OANN is only publicly releasing the surveys with favourable numbers for Trump, meaning their Gravis polls are effectively Republican internals.

Those disgusting hacks at RCP label PPP with a D beside it, but they have no problem pretending OANN polls are non partisan.

[Use Your Illusion]

Trash this poll... FL hasn't been +10 for ANY presidential candidate in 32 years.

Don't trash it.  If Biden is ahead by 6-7 points in the state, as both the 538 and RCP averages have at present, an occasional +10 or so (and some correspondingly lower ones) are to be expected.

I'd abide by the law of averages if +5 wasn't rare either. I think the actual truth is FL is tilt Trump/tossup but by less than 50,000 votes. This is going to sound batsh**t crazy but I'd give anything for more OANN polls just so I can gauge the true depth. of the state's conservative counterweight. Low single digit leads blatantly sampled in Trump territory will tell us everything we need to know because +10 amongst heavy Dem areas should be expected

No it's not Tilt Trump, Covid 19 has affected the state and DeSantis  is so unpopular.  2016 isnt here forever

This is less about 2016 and more that the only thing that gets as much unconditional support in FL as the Republican Party college football. Trump/DeSantis are just more unpopular in the same places they've always been


Edit: and by the looks of it now we're bound to have a football coach as a senator from Alabama and 300,000 people voted for him because Trump said so. COVID or not... Trump is like a human mind control wave and FL has a good 4.7 million people just chomping at the bit to vote for THEIR president again.

And if Trump wins the election and FL despite all these polls showing Biden running away with it, I'm not gonna sit here suprised. I'm gonna sit here and say "I hope what I said makes a little more sense now. Sorry if it seemed so crazy at the time."

[pbrower2a]

LMAO!

Even if the election happened tomorrow, Biden ain't winning Florida by 10 points. That would indicate a 55% to 41% national popular landslide. Which ain't happening.

(Bookmarking in case it does happen )

The last time that Florida went for a Democratic nominee for President by 10% or more was 1948. It actually went for LBJ by only a little over 2% in 1964.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Boy, I wish! I have grown to believe that Biden could win here by more than 1% potentially, but there is no way he will reach 10%. He may not even be able to here by %.

[AGA]

🤡

[Pulaski]

Boy, I wish! I have grown to believe that Biden could win here by more than 1% potentially, but there is no way he will reach 10%. He may not even be able to here by %.

Love percent trumps hate percent. Williamson was right all along; Democrats triumph through the power of the heart.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Boy, I wish! I have grown to believe that Biden could win here by more than 1% potentially, but there is no way he will reach 10%. He may not even be able to here by %.

Love percent trumps hate percent. Williamson was right all along; Democrats triumph through the power of the heart.

How embarrassing...that was supposed to say < 3%, if you didn't already figure that out.

[CookieDamage]

Trash this poll... FL hasn't been +10 for ANY presidential candidate in 32 years.

Because things will always reflect past results

[Torrain]

Looks like Gravis is cooking the goos for OANN.

Or OANN is only publicly releasing the surveys with favourable numbers for Trump, meaning their Gravis polls are effectively Republican internals.

Those disgusting hacks at RCP label PPP with a D beside it, but they have no problem pretending OANN polls are non partisan.

I mean, it's RCP. What did you expect?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Take this abomination of a 2020 map that RCP put their name on, which includes such gems as:
Oregon: Lean D
Connecticut: Lean D
Missouri: Tossup

[Alben Barkley]

Trash this poll... FL hasn't been +10 for ANY presidential candidate in 32 years.

Don't trash it.  If Biden is ahead by 6-7 points in the state, as both the 538 and RCP averages have at present, an occasional +10 or so (and some correspondingly lower ones) are to be expected.

I'd abide by the law of averages if +5 wasn't rare either. I think the actual truth is FL is tilt Trump/tossup but by less than 50,000 votes. This is going to sound batsh**t crazy but I'd give anything for more OANN polls just so I can gauge the true depth. of the state's conservative counterweight. Low single digit leads blatantly sampled in Trump territory will tell us everything we need to know because +10 amongst heavy Dem areas should be expected

You’re right, that is pretty bats—t crazy.

Anyone still saying FL is tilt Trump at this point is straight-up delusional. And that’s not how polling works.