MI-PPP: Biden +7

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: PPP, July 9-10, 1041 RV

Biden 51, Trump 44

Peters 49, James 42

Trump approval: 42/53

[woodley park]

What was it before?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What was it before?

PPP had it as 50-44 in late June.

[Horus]

Still closer than I'd like, but I'll take it.

[The Ex-Factor]

A lot of focus on background checks in this poll.

[Hammy]

Comparing their poll to this time in 2016 (June 28) was Clinton 46-40 with 17% other/undecided, final result was essentially 47-47 with Trump having a quarter point win.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Looks good to me. A lot less undecideds than 2016 and people seem much more solid in their choices right now.

Of course, people won't be happy unless Biden has a 15% lead here come November. And even that would be discouraging because only Trump & Republicans benefit from outrageous polling errors

[Horus]

Looks good to me. A lot less undecideds than 2016 and people seem much more solid in their choices right now.

Of course, people won't be happy unless Biden has a 15% lead here come November. And even that would be discouraging because only Trump & Republicans benefit from outrageous polling errors

This but unironically.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It falls in line with most Michigan polls. Can we get polls of other states though? It feels like Michigan has been the most polled by far.

[Roblox]

This is consistent with roughly a 9 point Biden lead nationally.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It falls in line with most Michigan polls. Can we get polls of other states though? It feels like Michigan has been the most polled by far.

But Michigan, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin (and I guess Arizona) are the only states that Biden voters should care about so polling any other state would be a waste of time and resources

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Looks good to me. A lot less undecideds than 2016 and people seem much more solid in their choices right now.

Of course, people won't be happy unless Biden has a 15% lead here come November. And even that would be discouraging because only Trump & Republicans benefit from outrageous polling errors

This but unironically.

It's almost like I thought of you when typing it out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good poll numbers for Peters

[Use Your Illusion]

Looks good to me. A lot less undecideds than 2016 and people seem much more solid in their choices right now.

Of course, people won't be happy unless Biden has a 15% lead here come November. And even that would be discouraging because only Trump & Republicans benefit from outrageous polling errors

Well sh**t.... considering the polls were wrong by like no less than +5 for Clinton AND the MoE for MN, WI, MI and PA and then followed up by completely screwing the pooch in polling FL both in 2018 where Gillum/Nelson both consistently led by at least that margin and STILL freaking lost.... It's less giving Trump and Republicans that much leeway and more like I DO NOT trust the polling. It's more believable that the polling agencies are just going back to the same areas they've been draining from since 2008 that produces high numbers for Democrats than that like 1 million people in the rust belt just suddenly broke for Trump at the last possible second. Seriously? How do you poll MN at Clinton +10 (which is consistent with Obama years) and yet she wins by 1.5? That's an 8.5 difference in the most liberal state in the union not called MA. And if Biden polls that number and only wins by like +2 my point will be vindicated and that'll also mean Biden got crushed. If people hated Clinton THAT much, good polling would not have reflected such high margins. I just think the polling misses the boat.



Yeah I'm guilty of 2016 PTSD but unfortunately I'm also stuck with Ron ing DeSantis as my governor who is all but actively killing people with his ignorance because he could suck up to Trump better than Adam Putnam could.




Believe me.... I'm giving anything to be wrong here and to look like an absolute moron on election night and if Biden wins I can get drunk off my ass singing "nah nah nah nah hey hey hey goodbye" loud enough to wake animals and make small children cry

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Looks good to me. A lot less undecideds than 2016 and people seem much more solid in their choices right now.

Of course, people won't be happy unless Biden has a 15% lead here come November. And even that would be discouraging because only Trump & Republicans benefit from outrageous polling errors

Well sh**t.... considering the polls were wrong by like no less than +5 for Clinton AND the MoE for MN, WI, MI and PA and then followed up by completely screwing the pooch in polling FL both in 2018 where Gillum/Nelson both consistently led by at least that margin and STILL freaking lost.... It's less giving Trump and Republicans that much leeway and more like I DO NOT trust the polling. It's more believable that the polling agencies are just going back to the same areas they've been draining from since 2008 that produces high numbers for Democrats than that like 1 million people in the rust belt just suddenly broke for Trump at the last possible second. Seriously? How do you poll MN at Clinton +10 (which is consistent with Obama years) and yet she wins by 1.5? That's an 8.5 difference in the most liberal state in the union not called MA. And if Biden polls that number and only wins by like +2 my point will be vindicated and that'll also mean Biden got crushed. If people hated Clinton THAT much, good polling would not have reflected such high margins. I just think the polling misses the boat.

Forgetting the ridiculous amount of undecided voters and folks who had negative impressions of both candidates up until election day.

Or that a certain FBI Director reinforced negative stereotypes for one of the candidates 10 days before the election.

Or that the last poll of MN was released the day before said-FBI Directors October involvement.

Or that the candidate who wasn't Hillary Clinton benefited greatly from last-minute deciders and soft supporters.

Then again, I'm just one of those folks that think Trump stands an equal chance of tightening the race as he does making it more lopsided than it is now.

[Hammy]

Looks good to me. A lot less undecideds than 2016 and people seem much more solid in their choices right now.

Of course, people won't be happy unless Biden has a 15% lead here come November. And even that would be discouraging because only Trump & Republicans benefit from outrageous polling errors

Well sh**t.... considering the polls were wrong by like no less than +5 for Clinton AND the MoE for MN, WI, MI and PA and then followed up by completely screwing the pooch in polling FL both in 2018 where Gillum/Nelson both consistently led by at least that margin and STILL freaking lost.... It's less giving Trump and Republicans that much leeway and more like I DO NOT trust the polling.

I am personally doubtful of the polls to some extent (especially if you have a leading candidate under 45%) but you also have to look at how and why the polls were wrong. You can't simply look at margins because that only tells you a small part of the story.

Most of the polls in 2016 did in fact underestimate Trump, and yes by quite a lot. But you had an absurd number of undecideds that you simply aren't seeing this year--not to mention they also underpolled Hillary by a few points--aside from Florida (moreso in 2018 because Gillum ran such an inept campaign) you didn't see voters going D on the polls and then going R in the election.

Republicans picked up most of the undecideds--and we're not seeing enough of that this year to make the polling difference that it made in 2016, when 44-38 leads were the norm most of the election.

[Use Your Illusion]

Neither of you are wrong about anything you said. We can point to the undecided vote of 2016 and what happened a few days leading up to the election. It still doesn't add up that Trump shattered turnout even in Democratic areas. Either millions (plural) of basically threw a Hail Mary vote for Trump at the very last second (which I find impossible given how despicable he is and how fanatic his following is) or I just can't trust the polling and it's a me problem. It's more believable to me as a person living in 2020 that the polls could still be off as far as 5% AND the MoE adding up to +7 and +8 point swings. And it is particularly believable to me that Trump is such a ing lunatic that he would say "I won this state if you don't add the mail-in vote! You stop counting NOW! Look at it! Scoreboard! Trump-1 Loser Biden-0! I don't care if 214,657 mail in votes are there! It is fraud! LAW AND ORDER!" and have them destroyed. I know this is illegal but we are living in Trump's America where sh**t like this is regular now. I wish I was kidding


I know I sound like a Looney Tune. I know I sound like a conspiracy theorist. I know full and well I need electroshock therapy and to get slapped with a cold fish. But I'm also actuely aware of America's long history of election fruad. See: Bush vs Gore See: JFK vs Nixon See: "Blocks of 5" See: Compromise of 1876 See: alleged 2004 voter fraud in OH that would've lost Bush the election. I wouldn't be this worried if I didn't have precedent to do so.


Needless to say, I'm as disenfranchised as an American can get right now and my support for Biden is already paper-thin. I'm not gonna vote for the guy because he's "Not Trump" but I'll vote for him if he puts an absolute stud of VP on the ticket and that means not pandering for "Muh strong, confident, P O W E R F U L black woman" when not a single of them are qualified to hold the post of VP. Someone like Sherrod Brown or Bob Casey is where Biden needs to go. Common sense demands a moderate Democratic ticket for 2020. If I get anything else I'm either voting for Jo Jorgenson or closing my eyes and biting my tongue voting for Biden because I cannot deal with Trump's stupidity any longer.

[Hammy]

Neither of you are wrong about anything you said. We can point to the undecided vote of 2016 and what happened a few days leading up to the election. It still doesn't add up that Trump shattered turnout even in Democratic areas.

In a lot of cases Dems simply didn't show up. In Wisconsin, both parties were down from 2012. Michigan, Hillary lost five votes for every two Trump gained. Even Iowa and Ohio--IA saw Hillary lose three votes for every vote Trump gained, Ohio same as Michigan. In Minnesota, despite not quite flipping, Hillary lost four votes for every vote Trump gained.

If Hillary had maintained Obama's voters who didn't flip to Trump, only PA and FL would've flipped and we would've seen a 283-255 Dem win. All Biden has to do, supposing we have proper turnout, is keep all of Hillary's voters, push a few more to show up, and flip some of Trump's.

Really the only two exceptions were Pennsylvania where Republicans swamped rural areas, and Florida, where both parties were up from 2012.

[Lief 🗽]

The polls were mostly fine in 2018, so I think firms fixed a lot of the issues that caused inaccuracy in 2016. The Michigan polls in particular were basically spot on for both the governor and senate races.

[Hammy]

The polls were mostly fine in 2018, so I think firms fixed a lot of the issues that caused inaccuracy in 2016. The Michigan polls in particular were basically spot on for both the governor and senate races.

It does help that the massive number of undecideds weren't present as well--I think that more than anything likely messed up the 2016 polling.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Neither of you are wrong about anything you said. We can point to the undecided vote of 2016 and what happened a few days leading up to the election. It still doesn't add up that Trump shattered turnout even in Democratic areas. Either millions (plural) of basically threw a Hail Mary vote for Trump at the very last second (which I find impossible given how despicable he is and how fanatic his following is) or I just can't trust the polling and it's a me problem. It's more believable to me as a person living in 2020 that the polls could still be off as far as 5% AND the MoE adding up to +7 and +8 point swings. And it is particularly believable to me that Trump is such a ing lunatic that he would say "I won this state if you don't add the mail-in vote! You stop counting NOW! Look at it! Scoreboard! Trump-1 Loser Biden-0! I don't care if 214,657 mail in votes are there! It is fraud! LAW AND ORDER!" and have them destroyed. I know this is illegal but we are living in Trump's America where sh**t like this is regular now. I wish I was kidding


I know I sound like a Looney Tune. I know I sound like a conspiracy theorist. I know full and well I need electroshock therapy and to get slapped with a cold fish. But I'm also actuely aware of America's long history of election fruad. See: Bush vs Gore See: JFK vs Nixon See: "Blocks of 5" See: Compromise of 1876 See: alleged 2004 voter fraud in OH that would've lost Bush the election. I wouldn't be this worried if I didn't have precedent to do so.


Needless to say, I'm as disenfranchised as an American can get right now and my support for Biden is already paper-thin. I'm not gonna vote for the guy because he's "Not Trump" but I'll vote for him if he puts an absolute stud of VP on the ticket and that means not pandering for "Muh strong, confident, P O W E R F U L black woman" when not a single of them are qualified to hold the post of VP. Someone like Sherrod Brown or Bob Casey is where Biden needs to go. Common sense demands a moderate Democratic ticket for 2020. If I get anything else I'm either voting for Jo Jorgenson or closing my eyes and biting my tongue voting for Biden because I cannot deal with Trump's stupidity any longer.

1. Take a deep breath

2. I guess thank you for contributing to my signature

3. I take it you find Trump incredibly despicable but can't see how others would be completely turned off by Hillary? I think that's something to look into. That'd explain a bit why we had record high undecideds, lack of enthusiasm on both sides, third party numbers being the highest since Perot, why Comey's letter made a huge difference a week away from the election and why all these converged enough to allow Trump to pull a win out of his hat. I think paintbrushing it as election fraud shows a real disconnect and sounds to me like a complete denial/refusal to face reality. "But Trump is so horrible. The only way people would vote for him instead of the Great Hillary Clinton has to be millions of votes being thrown away"

And I say this because I especially think you're finding any excuse to not vote for Biden with this running mate nonsense (Of all things). And this is for someone in a race that's the complete inverse of 2016, record low undecideds and strong voter intent this far out. Now imagine that but with two of the worst (perceived) candidates to run against each other in a Presidential Election. "But Trump is so horrible that it must be rigged. Nonetheless, Biden is pandering so I'm voting Libertarian"

[MT Treasurer]

Slightly better for Trump than I would have expected, but (a) as previous posters have said, polling has become more reliable in this state recently, (b) the fact that this is one of the best MI polls for Trump speaks volumes about the election, (c) this confirms my suspicion that MI will have another R trend rather than merely being an "IN 2012 redux", and (d) I do think Republicans are more likely to win either MI-PRES/MI-SEN than PA-PRES/any of the PA statewide races (really not saying much in this environment).