KY-GHY (McGrath/Dem internal): McConnell +4
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Author Topic: KY-GHY (McGrath/Dem internal): McConnell +4  (Read 780 times)
Pollster
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« on: July 16, 2020, 02:44:31 PM »
Screengrab from MSNBC, can't find poll online.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2020, 02:49:29 PM »
Looks about right. 41% of the vote is close to what McGrath will get.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2020, 03:00:48 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on July 16, 2020, 02:49:29 PM
Looks about right. 41% of the vote is close to what McGrath will get.
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n1240
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2020, 03:40:47 PM »
https://amymcgrath.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Polling-Memo-07-16.pdf
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The Mikado
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2020, 03:44:53 PM »
People here are being too flippant. (What rhymes with) Alison Lundergan Grimes got 41% against McConnell in 2014, a GOP wave year. McGrath could easily end up at 45%ish.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2020, 03:53:56 PM »
Huh, well whad'ya know? This race probably isn't winnable but it'd be nice if McGrath could at least keep it interesting (& then, who knows on Election Day...).
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WD
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2020, 04:03:32 PM »
Likely R. Undecideds will break heavily for McConnell.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2020, 04:23:10 PM »
McGrath just can't seem to get past the low-40s.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2020, 04:55:12 PM »
The margin will end up similar to Paul-Conway.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2020, 06:30:59 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on July 16, 2020, 03:44:53 PM
People here are being too flippant. (What rhymes with) Alison Lundergan Grimes got 41% against McConnell in 2014, a GOP wave year. McGrath could easily end up at 45%ish.

That's an insult to Alison Grimes. She was a better candidate than McGrath and actually won a (statewide, nonetheless) election before running against McConnell.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2020, 09:15:01 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2020, 09:19:53 PM by Alben Barkley »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on July 16, 2020, 06:30:59 PM
Quote from: The Mikado on July 16, 2020, 03:44:53 PM
People here are being too flippant. (What rhymes with) Alison Lundergan Grimes got 41% against McConnell in 2014, a GOP wave year. McGrath could easily end up at 45%ish.

That's an insult to Alison Grimes. She was a better candidate than McGrath and actually won a (statewide, nonetheless) election before running against McConnell.

Yes but he's right that it was a terrible year for Dems. Even in 2016, with Trump stomping in Kentucky, Jim Gray (who is gay and had not won a statewide election either) did better against Rand Paul (who's not as unpopular as McConnell) than Grimes did in 2014.

I expect Trump to win the state by not as much this year, and for it to be a better year for Democrats in general than 2016 let alone 2014, so the senate race could well be even closer this time. Not sure why so many here dismiss this as it is not only plausible, it's the most likely outcome. McConnell will still win, but single digits isn't impossible, and it won't be more than low double digits.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2020, 09:36:13 PM »
Quote from: Western Democrat on July 16, 2020, 04:03:32 PM
Likely R. Safe R. Undecideds will break heavily for McConnell.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2020, 10:35:52 PM »
They continue to poll the same states, but they wont give us a poll on MA Senate

Grain why dont you give us a poll on MA Senate
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2020, 11:22:14 AM »
Quote from: Western Democrat on July 16, 2020, 04:03:32 PM
Likely R. Undecideds will break heavily for McConnell.

I agree, though you would usually expect undecideds to break against an incumbent who is known for a long time. But in Kentucky, it appears the opposite is just the case. Or polling is very flawed.
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OBD
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2020, 12:12:47 PM »
This seat is still fool's gold. If it flips, it's only because Biden's blowing out Trump by at least 15-20 points nationwide.
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