Change Research/CNBC: Kelly +7%, Peters +7%, Cunningham +7%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-9

July 10-12, 2020

Battleground states (AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI) sample: 4332 likely voters (exact sample sizes also given for individual states)
MoE: 1.49% for battleground sample 

AZ:
345 likely voters
Kelly 52%
McSally 45%
Would not vote 1%
Not sure 2%

MI:
824 likely voters
Peters 50%
Peters 43%
Would not vote 1%
Not sure 5%

NC:
655 likely voters
Cunningham 49%
Tillis 42%
Would not vote 2%
Not sure 7%

[Landslide Lyndon]

Who did these polls, Herman Cain?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes on the margins in the last Change Research/CNBC poll (June 26-28, 2020):

AZ: Kelly -2% (Biden -1%)
MI: Peters +0% (Biden +1%)
NC: Cunningham -3% (Biden -6%)

[wbrocks67]

Who did these polls, Herman Cain?

I mean, they're not really off? Cunningham is more than what we've seen, but Change also had him high last time as well IRC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With AZ, CO, ME, NC this gives Ds 50 seats, IA we dont know about and GA will go to a runoff

[MillennialModerate]

With AZ, CO, ME, NC this gives Ds 50 seats, IA we dont know about and GA will go to a runoff

You’re off here.

Georgia is not happening. It’s a pipe dream. Montana is probably going to be won by Daines but it’s a pure tossup and I wouldn’t be shocked if Bullock pulled it out. Georgia on the other hand I think is the most overhyped state on this forum

[ProgressiveModerate]

With AZ, CO, ME, NC this gives Ds 50 seats, IA we dont know about and GA will go to a runoff

You’re off here.

Georgia is not happening. It’s a pipe dream. Montana is probably going to be won by Daines but it’s a pure tossup and I wouldn’t be shocked if Bullock pulled it out. Georgia on the other hand I think is the most overhyped state on this forum

If it's pure tossup shouldn't they both Bullock and Daines have 50-50 chance of winning? That's like saying Biden is likely to win VA but Trump still has a chnace to eek out a win, so therefore it's tossup.

[WD]

With AZ, CO, ME, NC this gives Ds 50 seats, IA we dont know about and GA will go to a runoff

You’re off here.

Georgia is not happening. It’s a pipe dream. Montana is probably going to be won by Daines but it’s a pure tossup and I wouldn’t be shocked if Bullock pulled it out. Georgia on the other hand I think is the most overhyped state on this forum

You should go work for Charlie Cook.

[tagimaucia]

With AZ, CO, ME, NC this gives Ds 50 seats, IA we dont know about and GA will go to a runoff

You’re off here.

Georgia is not happening. It’s a pipe dream. Montana is probably going to be won by Daines but it’s a pure tossup and I wouldn’t be shocked if Bullock pulled it out. Georgia on the other hand I think is the most overhyped state on this forum

I mean, back of the envelope math says that Abrams would have tied or slightly edged Kemp with presidential-year level turnout (while turnout was very high for a midterm, youth turnout was still not nearly as good as 2016/2012/etc.). 

Add to that the fact that Trump and republicans generally are currently several points less popular than they were in November of 2018, I don't know how anyone could make this statement with any confidence.  And I doubt that Perdue gets a boost of anything more than a point or so for incumbency with how polarized federal elections are now. The runoff system makes it a bigger lift, but if I could put even money on the Democratic GA senate candidates vs. the Republican GA senate candidates getting more total votes on election day, I'd put it on the Democrats right now.

[Storr]

They polled only 345 people in Arizona, is this a joke?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ and NC and IA can split their votes for Prez and Senate. AZ did in 2018 and Sinema won by 2