2016 election but if Clinton only won counties she got 60% or more in.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 01:04:09 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Dereich)
  2016 election but if Clinton only won counties she got 60% or more in.
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2016 election but if Clinton only won counties she got 60% or more in.  (Read 1543 times)
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 14, 2020, 06:58:58 AM »
« edited: July 14, 2020, 01:07:43 PM by Chips »

Observations:

Trump wins the majority of counties in CA. Clinton still probably wins the state but definitely not by 30%.

Trump likely wins OR as every county but Multnomah winds up in his camp.

WA probably votes for Trump too.

I can't tell clearly but I think Trump wins all but 2 AK boroughs.

All of HI's counties still go to Clinton.

Trump sweeps every county in NV. Showing that even though NV has been a closely contested swing state for quite a while, A good Republican nominee can be competitive in every county.

Trump also wins every county in WY, ID, NE and UT. No real surprise there.

Trump wins by good margins in CO and NM as every county but five and six respectively in those states go to Trump's column.

Republicans dominate in TX as Clinton wins just 17 counties there.

Republicans flip a good portion of the normally solidly blue Black Belt counties in the Deep South.

VA was tricky as some of the cities were too small so I had to look into them. Regardless, Trump easily wins VA probably by a double digit margin as many Northern Virginia counties also come for the ride.

Trump wins both of the Clinton actual counties in KY.

In Ohio, Trump makes historic flips in Athens and Lucas counties.

Every county in PA but Philadelphia goes Trump as well as every county but Cook in IL.

The Northeast was the most shocking to me.

Trump actually sweeps every county in not only NH and ME but RI and CT as well.

MA and MD likely stay blue but by much less margins.

VT probably flips and NY would be a toss-up.

Trump likely wins NJ too.

So, If all of this applies, Clinton comes out of the 2016 election with a whopping 187 counties on her side. This would be quite devastating indeed for the Democrats and for Republicans they could party like it's Reagan all over again pretty much. Clinton probably only wins CA, MA, MD, HI, DC and maybe NY.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2lst

EDIT: I missed a few. Clinton probably actually has somewhere around 180.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,936
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2020, 08:39:45 AM »

Observations:

Trump wins the majority of counties in CA. Clinton still probably wins the state but definitely not by 30%.

Trump likely wins OR as every county but Multnomah winds up in his camp.

WA probably votes for Trump too.

I can't tell clearly but I think Trump wins all but 2 AK boroughs.

All of HI's counties still go to Clinton.

Trump sweeps every county in NV. Showing that even though NV has been a closely contested swing state for quite a while, A good Republican nominee can be competitive in every county.

Trump also wins every county in WY, ID, NE and UT. No real surprise there.

Trump wins by good margins in CO and NM as every county but five and six respectively in those states go to Trump's column.

Republicans dominate in TX as Clinton wins just 17 counties there.

Republicans flip a good portion of the normally solidly blue Black Belt counties in the Deep South.

VA was tricky as some of the cities were too small so I had to look into them. Regardless, Trump easily wins VA probably by a double digit margin as many Northern Virginia counties also come for the ride.

Trump wins both of the Clinton actual counties in KY.

In Ohio, Trump makes historic flips in Athens and Lucas counties.

Every county in PA but Philadelphia goes Trump as well as every county but Cook in IL.

The Northeast was the most shocking to me.

Trump actually sweeps every county in not only NH and ME but RI and CT as well.

MA and MD likely stay blue but by much less margins.

VT probably flips and NY would be a toss-up.

Trump likely wins NJ too.

So, If all of this applies, Clinton comes out of the 2016 election with a whopping 187 counties on her side. This would be quite devastating indeed for the Democrats and for Republicans they could party like it's Reagan all over again pretty much. Clinton probably only wins CA, MA, MD, HI, DC and maybe NY.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2lst

Very interesting scenario. Trump would almost certainly have beaten Clinton by a Nixon-1972 or Harding-1920 level landslide if this had been the actual outcome (either 61-38% or 60-34%, probably the latter given the large third-party vote in 2016). Interestingly enough, the map in my home state of Colorado resembles the Senatorial victory of Ben Nighthorse Campbell in 1998, when he beat Dottie Lamm 62-35%:


My assumption is that Trump's margin and percentage over Clinton in the state would probably be similar. On another note, do you know how to zoom into the maps on zapm? I've been trying to figure it out for ages, but have never been successful.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2020, 10:00:54 AM »

Observations:

Trump wins the majority of counties in CA. Clinton still probably wins the state but definitely not by 30%.

Trump likely wins OR as every county but Multnomah winds up in his camp.

WA probably votes for Trump too.

I can't tell clearly but I think Trump wins all but 2 AK boroughs.

All of HI's counties still go to Clinton.

Trump sweeps every county in NV. Showing that even though NV has been a closely contested swing state for quite a while, A good Republican nominee can be competitive in every county.

Trump also wins every county in WY, ID, NE and UT. No real surprise there.

Trump wins by good margins in CO and NM as every county but five and six respectively in those states go to Trump's column.

Republicans dominate in TX as Clinton wins just 17 counties there.

Republicans flip a good portion of the normally solidly blue Black Belt counties in the Deep South.

VA was tricky as some of the cities were too small so I had to look into them. Regardless, Trump easily wins VA probably by a double digit margin as many Northern Virginia counties also come for the ride.

Trump wins both of the Clinton actual counties in KY.

In Ohio, Trump makes historic flips in Athens and Lucas counties.

Every county in PA but Philadelphia goes Trump as well as every county but Cook in IL.

The Northeast was the most shocking to me.

Trump actually sweeps every county in not only NH and ME but RI and CT as well.

MA and MD likely stay blue but by much less margins.

VT probably flips and NY would be a toss-up.

Trump likely wins NJ too.

So, If all of this applies, Clinton comes out of the 2016 election with a whopping 187 counties on her side. This would be quite devastating indeed for the Democrats and for Republicans they could party like it's Reagan all over again pretty much. Clinton probably only wins CA, MA, MD, HI, DC and maybe NY.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2lst

Very interesting scenario. Trump would almost certainly have beaten Clinton by a Nixon-1972 or Harding-1920 level landslide if this had been the actual outcome (either 61-38% or 60-34%, probably the latter given the large third-party vote in 2016). Interestingly enough, the map in my home state of Colorado resembles the Senatorial victory of Ben Nighthorse Campbell in 1998, when he beat Dottie Lamm 62-35%:


My assumption is that Trump's margin and percentage over Clinton in the state would probably be similar. On another note, do you know how to zoom into the maps on zapm? I've been trying to figure it out for ages, but have never been successful.
Make sure your maps aren't locked and zoom in with your mouse.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2020, 10:06:04 AM »

Observations:

Trump wins the majority of counties in CA. Clinton still probably wins the state but definitely not by 30%.

Trump likely wins OR as every county but Multnomah winds up in his camp.

WA probably votes for Trump too.

I can't tell clearly but I think Trump wins all but 2 AK boroughs.

All of HI's counties still go to Clinton.

Trump sweeps every county in NV. Showing that even though NV has been a closely contested swing state for quite a while, A good Republican nominee can be competitive in every county.

Trump also wins every county in WY, ID, NE and UT. No real surprise there.

Trump wins by good margins in CO and NM as every county but five and six respectively in those states go to Trump's column.

Republicans dominate in TX as Clinton wins just 17 counties there.

Republicans flip a good portion of the normally solidly blue Black Belt counties in the Deep South.

VA was tricky as some of the cities were too small so I had to look into them. Regardless, Trump easily wins VA probably by a double digit margin as many Northern Virginia counties also come for the ride.

Trump wins both of the Clinton actual counties in KY.

In Ohio, Trump makes historic flips in Athens and Lucas counties.

Every county in PA but Philadelphia goes Trump as well as every county but Cook in IL.

The Northeast was the most shocking to me.

Trump actually sweeps every county in not only NH and ME but RI and CT as well.

MA and MD likely stay blue but by much less margins.

VT probably flips and NY would be a toss-up.

Trump likely wins NJ too.

So, If all of this applies, Clinton comes out of the 2016 election with a whopping 187 counties on her side. This would be quite devastating indeed for the Democrats and for Republicans they could party like it's Reagan all over again pretty much. Clinton probably only wins CA, MA, MD, HI, DC and maybe NY.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2lst

Very interesting scenario. Trump would almost certainly have beaten Clinton by a Nixon-1972 or Harding-1920 level landslide if this had been the actual outcome (either 61-38% or 60-34%, probably the latter given the large third-party vote in 2016). Interestingly enough, the map in my home state of Colorado resembles the Senatorial victory of Ben Nighthorse Campbell in 1998, when he beat Dottie Lamm 62-35%:


My assumption is that Trump's margin and percentage over Clinton in the state would probably be similar. On another note, do you know how to zoom into the maps on zapm? I've been trying to figure it out for ages, but have never been successful.

And yeah almost every state would have very inflated margins for Trump. This is basically what would happen if the 1972 or the 1984 elections were held today. Trump would easily break 60% in NV, Get near or break 60% in CO, NM and VA. and would probably break 60% in every other swing state and would win with historic margins in states like RI, OR and CT. Every state would probably vote for him here except for CA, HI, MA, MD and possibly NY.

I might do this for if Trump only won his 60%+ counties but that would be another can of worms as I would have to fill in a lot more counties.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,936
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2020, 12:07:04 PM »

Observations:

Trump wins the majority of counties in CA. Clinton still probably wins the state but definitely not by 30%.

Trump likely wins OR as every county but Multnomah winds up in his camp.

WA probably votes for Trump too.

I can't tell clearly but I think Trump wins all but 2 AK boroughs.

All of HI's counties still go to Clinton.

Trump sweeps every county in NV. Showing that even though NV has been a closely contested swing state for quite a while, A good Republican nominee can be competitive in every county.

Trump also wins every county in WY, ID, NE and UT. No real surprise there.

Trump wins by good margins in CO and NM as every county but five and six respectively in those states go to Trump's column.

Republicans dominate in TX as Clinton wins just 17 counties there.

Republicans flip a good portion of the normally solidly blue Black Belt counties in the Deep South.

VA was tricky as some of the cities were too small so I had to look into them. Regardless, Trump easily wins VA probably by a double digit margin as many Northern Virginia counties also come for the ride.

Trump wins both of the Clinton actual counties in KY.

In Ohio, Trump makes historic flips in Athens and Lucas counties.

Every county in PA but Philadelphia goes Trump as well as every county but Cook in IL.

The Northeast was the most shocking to me.

Trump actually sweeps every county in not only NH and ME but RI and CT as well.

MA and MD likely stay blue but by much less margins.

VT probably flips and NY would be a toss-up.

Trump likely wins NJ too.

So, If all of this applies, Clinton comes out of the 2016 election with a whopping 187 counties on her side. This would be quite devastating indeed for the Democrats and for Republicans they could party like it's Reagan all over again pretty much. Clinton probably only wins CA, MA, MD, HI, DC and maybe NY.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2lst

Very interesting scenario. Trump would almost certainly have beaten Clinton by a Nixon-1972 or Harding-1920 level landslide if this had been the actual outcome (either 61-38% or 60-34%, probably the latter given the large third-party vote in 2016). Interestingly enough, the map in my home state of Colorado resembles the Senatorial victory of Ben Nighthorse Campbell in 1998, when he beat Dottie Lamm 62-35%:


My assumption is that Trump's margin and percentage over Clinton in the state would probably be similar. On another note, do you know how to zoom into the maps on zapm? I've been trying to figure it out for ages, but have never been successful.
Make sure your maps aren't locked and zoom in with your mouse.

I've tried doing this, but to no effect. I'm using a laptop mousepad.
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2020, 03:54:05 PM »

You didn't touch Minnesota lol
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2020, 04:07:15 PM »

Your map has San Luis Obispo, CA as Democrat when Clinton won it with 48.9% of the vote in 2016. That would flip to Trump as well.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2020, 05:59:14 AM »

Your map has San Luis Obispo, CA as Democrat when Clinton won it with 48.9% of the vote in 2016. That would flip to Trump as well.
Yeah looking at it I missed a few across the country.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2020, 06:02:30 AM »

I did. I flipped Olmsted, Carlton, Washington, Lake, Dakota, Saint Louis and Cook.

Hennepin and Ramsey also come within 10-15% of flipping. Trump probably wins the state by a 60-31% margin or something like that.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,936
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2020, 08:32:35 AM »

I did. I flipped Olmsted, Carlton, Washington, Lake, Dakota, Saint Louis and Cook.

Hennepin and Ramsey also come within 10-15% of flipping. Trump probably wins the state by a 60-31% margin or something like that.

Not sure if you saw my last post. As I'e said, I tried following your advice and have still been unable to zoom in on the individual states.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2020, 08:46:25 AM »

You might be able to do it by clicking the left button on your mousepad? Not sure.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2020, 10:41:16 AM »

Just for fun, I did the reverse, where Trump only wins counties he got 60% or more in:

County
2001 R - 1141 D
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2noy

President
440 D - 98 R
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2nox
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2020, 02:49:47 PM »

Just for fun, I did the reverse, where Trump only wins counties he got 60% or more in:

County
2001 R - 1141 D
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2noy

President
440 D - 98 R
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2nox
Woah. You missed Stark County, OH though and i'm sure a few others too as I did. Still, Goes to show that even when a Democrat wins in a landslide, Most of the US land area in general is Republican.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.047 seconds with 13 queries.