Redfield & Wilton - National: Biden +8
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:48:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Redfield & Wilton - National: Biden +8
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Redfield & Wilton - National: Biden +8  (Read 738 times)
Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 13, 2020, 01:58:53 PM »

Conducted July 9th

Biden: 48% (-2 from June 11th)
Trump: 40% (+3)

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-voting-intention-july-9/
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,362
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2020, 02:00:07 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2020, 02:12:28 PM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »

Appears Redfield conducted this poll both with a write-in option (Biden +9) and without (Biden +8).  

Without write-in (Biden +8)



With write-in (Biden +9)



From my untrained eye, it looks as though Trump loses a percentage point when Kanye (or "write-in") is present. 
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2020, 02:01:20 PM »

OMG, Trump cut Biden's lead by 5 points.

In 2 months, he's ahead ...
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,933
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2020, 02:04:13 PM »

They polled Kanye West. Trash it.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2020, 02:07:47 PM »

Trump's approval magically went from -11 in their last poll to *-5* this month. 538 has his average approval at 3x that. Junk it.
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,201


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2020, 03:11:39 PM »

Trump's approval magically went from -11 in their last poll to *-5* this month. 538 has his average approval at 3x that. Junk it.

Don't junk polls unless there is something really bad about them (very low sample size, or from a source that is clearly biased). Just throw it in the average
Logged
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2020, 03:15:02 PM »

41/46 seems low for Trump's dissaprove, but I can believe the topline. Biden's June bump appears to have faded to an extent.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2020, 03:19:56 PM »

Not absurd numbers, though the shift from their last poll is odd. Into the average it goes, I'm sure there will be a Biden +11 soon that balances it out.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2020, 03:43:10 PM »

41/46 seems low for Trump's dissaprove, but I can believe the topline. Biden's June bump appears to have faded to an extent.

The 538 average has gone from like +9.6 to +8.9

Not to mention, the only recent national polls we've gotten are Zogby, Scott Rasmussen, and this. Not the most high quality.
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2020, 03:54:25 PM »

41/46 seems low for Trump's dissaprove, but I can believe the topline. Biden's June bump appears to have faded to an extent.

Thats par for the course with this pollster. In both April and May, they had Trump's approval at 42/45. Not sure why they tend to have so many "no opinions" or "undecideds".
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2020, 03:59:44 PM »

Yup, pretty clear now that Trump has made up ground since June. Not good.
Logged
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2020, 04:09:18 PM »

Yup, pretty clear now that Trump has made up ground since June. Not good.
I always thought this was inevitable, considering the large number of conservatives who were repulsed by his response to the riots ( which have since faded). Still need to see some more high quality polling before I draw any conclusions.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2020, 04:41:10 PM »

Wait so Kanye takes from TRUMP?

LOL
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2020, 04:43:52 PM »

Yup, pretty clear now that Trump has made up ground since June. Not good.

Could be statistical noise or it could be Trump’s “charm”.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2020, 04:48:46 PM »

Trump won with Gary Johnson,  he was a Republican to take votes away from Hilary, just like Nadar took votes away from Gore
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2020, 05:02:11 PM »

Yup, pretty clear now that Trump has made up ground since June. Not good.

You'd think people here would be smarter than to make assumptions off 3 low-quality pollsters.

The same thing happened two weeks ago when people were freaking out and then Monmouth had +12. Jesus christ. We're talking about Zogby and Scott Rasmussen here.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2020, 05:06:32 PM »

Yup, pretty clear now that Trump has made up ground since June. Not good.

You'd think people here would be smarter than to make assumptions off 3 low-quality pollsters.

The same thing happened two weeks ago when people were freaking out and then Monmouth had +12. Jesus christ. We're talking about Zogby and Scott Rasmussen here.
Lief is memeing, don't take him too seriously.
Logged
here2view
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,683
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.13, S: -1.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2020, 05:40:27 PM »

Mask bump
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2020, 06:06:05 PM »


Splitting the narcissist vote.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2020, 06:16:06 PM »

This also has Biden +3 with Men. If Biden is winning *men* by 3%, he's definitely in double digits overall
Logged
AltWorlder
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,829


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: 3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2020, 06:31:35 PM »


They just included a variant, calm down.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 12 queries.