MT (PPP): Gianforte +4

[Bidenworth2020]

Gianforte 46
Cooney 42

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/bullock-most-popular-montana-politician-narrowly-leads-daines/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT is going blue again this year

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not sure 12%

1224 voters
July 9-10, 2020
MoE: 2.8%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Some good news for Cooney:

87% of Montanans have an opinion of Gianforte, and it's not positive. 40-47% unfavorable (-7).

Only 52% have an opinion of Mike Cooney.

He has room to grow and the time to do it.

[Sir Mohamed]

I believe this will narrowly go for the bodyslammer in the end, while Bullock as an about 50/50 chance to get Mr. Daines packing.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

#populism

[MT Treasurer]

Some good news for Cooney:

87% of Montanans have an opinion of Gianforte, and it's not positive. 40-47% unfavorable (-7).

Only 52% have an opinion of Mike Cooney.

He has room to grow and the time to do it.

You realize that Cooney doesn’t exactly have the airwaves for himself, right? It took the Gianforte campaign less than a day to turn the maximum penalty for Cooney's ethics violation into a nice ad (and it’s just one of many anti-Cooney ads that are airing), and GF is not the type to be caught asleep at the wheel.

It will be a very close race, but it’s certainly more difficult for Democrats than the Senate race.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Bullock has really high approvals, can anyone lend any insight into how (if at all) he's been stumping for Mike Cooney while running for Senate?

[MT Treasurer]

Bullock has really high approvals, can anyone lend any insight into how (if at all) he's been stumping for Mike Cooney while running for Senate?

Well, besides cutting an ad or two and endorsing him (which he has), there’s not much he can do, especially with retail campaigning and joint events (where he doesn’t nearly fall asleep when Cooney is speaking, though) mostly off the table. He’s also (understandably) preoccupied with his own race and not exactly a candidate who had a lot of "coattails" in 2016.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Bullock has really high approvals, can anyone lend any insight into how (if at all) he's been stumping for Mike Cooney while running for Senate?

Well, besides cutting an ad or two and endorsing him (which he has), there’s not much he can do, especially with retail campaigning and joint events (where he doesn’t nearly fall asleep when Cooney is speaking, though) mostly off the table. He’s also (understandably) preoccupied with his own race and not exactly a candidate who had a lot of "coattails" in 2016.

That's what I figured. This COVID thing is really killing candidates like Cooney who could really benefit from organically growing his name rec.

[MT Treasurer]

Bullock has really high approvals, can anyone lend any insight into how (if at all) he's been stumping for Mike Cooney while running for Senate?

Well, besides cutting an ad or two and endorsing him (which he has), there’s not much he can do, especially with retail campaigning and joint events (where he doesn’t nearly fall asleep when Cooney is speaking, though) mostly off the table. He’s also (understandably) preoccupied with his own race and not exactly a candidate who had a lot of "coattails" in 2016.

That's what I figured. This COVID thing is really killing candidates like Cooney who could really benefit from organically growing his name rec.

The irony of all of this is that a popular "autopsy" after the MTGOP's losses in 2012 and some other high-profile races (including MT-GOV 2016) was that the party had been taken over by the far-right, needed to stop nominating "unpalatable" candidates for Governor/Senate and should nominate actual moderates (e.g. in the mold of Racicot and Fox) instead. Well, guess what, Gianforte is easily the most conservative nominee for governor in a long time (including on social issues) and Cooney's political and ideological beliefs are virtually indistinguishable from Bullock's. Daines is also more moderate than Gianforte, and look what good emphasizing all his bipartisan bills has done him.

Imagine telling someone in December 2012...

*that Tim Fox would lose the 2020 Republican primary for governor by 26 points to a body-slamming New Earth creationist who moved to MT twenty years after Mike Cooney's first election,
*that said body-slamming New Earth creationist would be leading in a massive Democratic wave environment in which the incumbent Republican President is trailing in several TX polls and the "uncontroversial" incumbent Republican Senator is in serious danger of losing his seat,
*that said body-slamming New Earth creationist would become the first Republican governor since 2000 and also end the political career of a man who has sought the office since the 1970s and yet another man who turned down opportunities to run in 2014/2016/2018 (even though he would have been guaranteed the nomination in one of those years and would have stood a good chance in the other two + would have had a decent shot in the general in all of those years) only to have his political career ended by a 26-point primary loss,
*that said bodyslamming New Earth creationist would be one of only a handful of Republicans to win competitive races this year.

So much conventional wisdom turned on its head. It’s all about messaging, strategy, and identity, guys.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT and MO were 2/3 states that voted blue for Senate and Red for Prez in 2012 Blue wave. Add KS to the mix and replace IN with TX and SC and there you have the blue wave of 2020. KS voted for Sebelius for Gov in 2006.

That's why Cooney and Galloway remain competitive