MT (PPP): Bullock +2

[VAR]

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Bullock.

[VAR]

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

Montana has swung against the incumbent President in every election since 1984. Trump only getting 52% would not be shocking.

No, it’s the sample. It looks like this:

Trump ‘16 voters - 52%
Clinton ‘16 voters - 36%
Other - 12%

The 2016 election:

Trump - 56%
Clinton - 36%
Other - 8%

[VAR]

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

What? Bullock is leading and Daines has a tied approval. An incumbent at 44% is in no way favored.

Oh no! I meant to say tilt Bullock. They’re both Steves!

[VAR]

In regards to the 2016 lean, isn't it not that uncommon for people to sort of lie on the margins as to how they voted depending on who ends up winning, or how popular they currently are?

Very true.  After JFK was assassinated, I think something like 90% of people claimed they voted for him.  

Like obviously if the poll had respondents saying they voted for Hillary 46-44 that'd be highly suspect and certainly wrong.

But 36-52 doesn't seem especially off to me, given the circumstances.

This PPP poll of MT, conducted in March (when Trump had his rally ‘round flag bump), had it Trump 51-35. So while what you’re saying is a possibility, it’s likely not the case.