In regards to the 2016 lean, isn't it not that uncommon for people to sort of lie on the margins as to how they voted depending on who ends up winning, or how popular they currently are?
Very true. After JFK was assassinated, I think something like 90% of people claimed they voted for him.
Like obviously if the poll had respondents saying they voted for Hillary 46-44 that'd be highly suspect and certainly wrong.
But 36-52 doesn't seem especially off to me, given the circumstances.
This PPP poll of MT, conducted in March (when Trump had his rally ‘round flag bump), had it Trump 51-35. So while what you’re saying is a possibility, it’s likely not the case.