MT (PPP): Bullock +2

[WD]

Tilt D

[WD]

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

What? Bullock is leading and Daines has a tied approval. An incumbent at 44% is in no way favored.

[WD]

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

What? Bullock is leading and Daines has a tied approval. An incumbent at 44% is in no way favored.

Oh no! I meant to say tilt Bullock. They’re both Steves!

This poll is pretty good for Steve tbh imo

[WD]

Lean R, Daines 51-47

There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)

Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.

No, Bullock will outrun Biden by close to 20 points, it’s Tilt D closer to Lean than tossup.